Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CPI

Most recents (24)

Thread🧵

Why August month can be #Bullish for #cryptocurrency

•No #Fed / #FOMC Meeting in August So their might not be #interestrates hikes

#Crypto #CryptoNews #ETH $ETH #Ethereum #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #Binance #BNB

1/10🧵
Oil Price

•When You compare the #Oil price with june month,There is Fall of Oil Price in July month
•This affects #inflation
•That means #CPI Data of #USA can come down to 8.5% to 8.8% range

#Crypto #cryptocurrency #BTC $BTC #Bitcoin #ETH $ETH #Ethereum #binance #BNB

2/10🧵
Consumer Spending

•Even though the #inflation is at peak the #USA Consumer Spending has not got reduced in June
•We can expect the same in July also
•This also affects the #inflation I.e, We Can see a Drop in #CPI

#Crypto #cryptocurrency #BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #ETH $ETH

3/10🧵
Read 11 tweets
Today is an hot day, not only for temperatures, but also for economic data.

Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today

Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market

Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready

🤓🧵 Image
#CPI prints:

#UK YoY
Actual
9.4%
Forecast
9.3%
Previous
9.1%

#UK MoM
Actual
0.8%
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
0.7%

#Canada YoY
Actual
8.1%
Forecast
8.4%
Previous
7.7%

#Canada MoM
Actual
0.7%
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
1.4%

Let's unpack it briefly
With a 9.4% UK finds itself on the firsts European (continent) Countries that are approaching double digits #inflation, and with the lack of haste in interventions on the #monetary #policies side, the #peak #inflation seems still far away. Let alone the MoM momentum, still high
Read 20 tweets
(1/9) 🧵👇Market Wrap #3: 📰 Market Recap 📰

1. EUR dips below Dollar parity for the first time in 20 years

> Ukraine Russia war caused an energy crisis in EU. ECB is trying to curb inflation and cushion a slowing economy where it aims to raise borrowing costs.
(2/9)

> he US #Fed is raising interest rates at an accelerated rate, causing yields on US #Treasury Bonds to surge higher than EU’s debt — driving investors to the dollar and away from euros.
(3/9)

> Weaker currencies used to be welcomed as a means to stimulate economic growth. This is now undesirable due to inflation, making imports expensive. EU #CPI jumped to 8.6% in just a year.
Read 9 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 07/17/22

1/7

Has #inflation peaked?

June #CPI +9.1% ♨️, but core +5.9% 🔻
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% 🔺, but UMich +5.2% 🔻from 5.3%

And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed

Let’s dig into more 🧮!
2a/7

#Commodities

Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% – and deeply oversold
2b/7

Metals have been 🐻 Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum

$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)

Chart: Base metals ↘️ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T)
Read 13 tweets
The Consumer Price Index #CPI is 9.1% Year over Year. The Fed’s solution is to raise interest rates, killing the economy to bring down #inflation. A thread (1/10) about establishment logic.
@MarkFabian21
Article version:
realprogressives.org/fed-chairman-p…
2. Fed Chair Powell wants to raise unemployment and lower wages to fight inflation. Recession risk is a lower priority. marketplace.org/2022/05/12/fed…
3. But, many sectors of the economy are not interest-rate sensitive. Interest rates are a blunt tool for managing inflation. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/w…
Read 10 tweets
1) People intending to vacation by car fell to 22.7% in June (BN).

Lowest seasonally in > 4Y.

"36% of Americans surveyed this month intend to take a vacation within the next six months, the weakest June reading any ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
2) Y in data going back over 40 years, excluding 2020"

So at least some demand destruction may continue.

Avg US unleaded price was $4.88 yesterday vs $5.02 peak Jun 13.

But gas price spiked end of May into Jun. So avg Jun price MTD is $4.96 vs $4.56 ...
3) avg in May (+ big M/M), which is one of the reasons why Cleveland M/M headline #CPI nowcast is still very high.

Gas price likely falls more, but even if price stops falling, avg price will be down M/M in Jul and becomes a NEGATIVE headwind to Jul CPI!
Read 4 tweets
📢THE COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY AND THE SOLUTION IN THE FORM OF CRYPTO! 📢

In this little story I summarize how Covid, Supply Chain, Debt, Wages, Inflation, a Eecession, Insolvency and an aging population come together to form a common solution: Crypto Assets

1) ...
So much is happening in the world. War, High #inflation, Covid, #recession, insolvancy, a debt bubble and Supply Chain problems.

All of these causes have a large impact on the world economy and therefore on your portfolio, which makes it important to understand what is going on. Image
The main consequence:

An nation on the verge of collapse and a debt bubble around the world.

As Ray Dalio said

'A nation in its last effort of strength is hugely in debt, there are internal wealth disparities and printing money seems to many to be the solution, but it is not'. Image
Read 25 tweets
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 14 tweets
CPI for May was ugly, up 8.6% from a year ago. There is no good in this, save that it wasn’t even uglier. The typical family must spend about $450 per month more to buy the same goods and services they did a year ago. They make about $70k a year. Ugh!
Primarily behind last month’s painfully high inflation is another spike in oil and gas prices. This goes to Europe’s decision to sanction Russian oil, which has left a hole in global oil supplies. While a laudable rebuke of Russia, it is a significant hit to the global economy.
But there are reasons to think that once oil prices simply settle, even at these lofty prices, inflation will recede. Supply chain stresses are easing, inventories of goods are building, workers are getting back on the job, and inflation expectations are back down.
Read 4 tweets
It is #CPIDay and all (CP)eyes in the markets and at the Fed are on US inflation data due in 5 minutes. The focus will be on M/M core goods and core services.
May M/M Headline #CPI up whopping 1.0%
M/M Core up 0.6%
Lets dive in to see what caused this broad based spike upwards:
And the answer is that Core Goods jumped up 0.7% M/M, relative to a decline of 0.4% in March and and increase of 0.2% in April. Core Services moved up 0.6%, a bit higher than prior months, on an expected jump in rents and owners equivalent rents (both up 0.6% M/M).>>
Read 7 tweets
From #PepeEscobar, @telegram, 3 June 2022.

One of the ongoing debates in OilWorld: How much spare capacity remains in the system to produce oil at additional levels, globally, in case of emergency?

Answer: it’s running out & there ain’t no more!

#PeakOil is back! ⛽️ ✈️ 🚗
Let us not forget the words of the late, great Matthew Simmons (paraphrasing): “Once Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 has peaked, then the world has effectively peaked.”

Ergo, there’s no spare capacity to offset banned / boycotted Ru oil. Ergo, global oil mkt = sellers mkt now.

#PeakOil
The above piece via Pepe Escobar states that there is now declining spare capacity in #KSA 🇸🇦 due to declining investment in #oil extraction tech.

It’s actually the other way around: there’s now declining investment b/c there’s no new profitable 🇸🇦 oil to be had. #PeakOil
Read 10 tweets
In response to Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, the 🌎 came together & weaponized financial systems against #Putin & his associates.

There's a problem though... The legal system that protects us all has been undermined.

It's “very hard to put Humpty Dumpty back together again...”
What will kill this bull market? It won't be the Fed...
@dailydirtnap & Louis Vincent Gave of @Gavekal join forces to explore everything from the consequences of war in Eastern Europe & high energy prices to deglobalization, #supplychains, Fed policy & the perils of weaponized financial systems.

"#CPI will be 10% in September..."
Read 4 tweets
You seem to be the 1st to ask. Been waiting years for this question. Thank you!

Take 3 stylized goods:

F = Food in kgs
G = Gasoline in ltrs
H = Housing as Rent in sq meters

Assume Cobb-Douglas tastes with 2 exponents a_F, b_G (so c_H=1-a_F-b_G) & prices p_0, p_1in R^3 x R^3.
The COST OF LIVING that @BLS_gov pretends to calculate, for any price vectors as above is now a function on the 2-simplex (a_F,b_g) called the Laspeyres Konus formula.

Only one computer programmer needs to be able to understand the above. She can build the function in python.
That function is akin to the temperature or pressure I keep talking about in the standard inflation theory. From there, we move to what is wrong with the standard theory. But this would already show you what is wrong with BLS’ crazy claims to be computing the cost of living. 🙏
Read 5 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
3/10

Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week

$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Read 17 tweets
I'm back from my week not posting, and here's my forecast for the #inflation numbers on Wednesday 5/11

I forecast the #CPI headline to be 8.2% year-over-year, down from 8.6% YoY in March

Month-over-Month that's 0.35%, down from 1.24%

Core CPI I predict 5.6% YoY, down from 6.2%
This reading should give the fed some hope that inflation is dying down, but we've also heard that before, if I'm right with my call of 0.35% for April, the red line is where the trailing 6 month inflation would be

We've had pauses on this journey before, so can't trust 1 month
Nearly the entire decline this month is caused by a decline in used car prices. The transitorians cited used cars all last year to explain away inflation

Curious to see if they cite it to discount the slowdown in #inflation as well, I wouldn't hold you breath on that one though
Read 6 tweets
While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for #inflation, we think both Core #CPI and #PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022. Image
Throughout the pandemic, strong disposable #income and limited services spending fueled consumer #spending on goods and high goods volumes created #bottlenecks and extreme #inflation. Image
Eventually, excessively easy #MonetaryPolicy caused this robust #inflation to broaden into less disrupted categories.
Read 6 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 05/01/2022

1/11

🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
2/11

UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
2a/11

Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Read 22 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022

1/11

The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣

And they are coming after YOU dear investor

"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11

Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️

10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier

MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺

Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
3/11

Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam

$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️

Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Read 17 tweets
Hello Friday!

Week to date

$BTC -5.45%
$EUR -1.5%
$GOLD +0.75%
$USD +1.15%

$CAC -3.35%
$NIKK -2.8%
$COMPQ -2.55%
$KOPSI -1.6%

$GASO -4.2%
$WTIC -3.35%
$COFFEE -1.05%
$PLAT -3.1%
$COPPER +0.25%
$CORN +2.05%
$WHEAT +4.15%
$NATGAS +11.2%

$TNX +27.5 BPS

Let's dig into the 🧮!
After a ↘️ week, Asia closed Friday ↗️

$NIKK 26986 +0.35%
$SSEC 3252 +0.45%
$TWII 17285 +0.6%
$HSI 21857 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2700 +0.15%
$IDX 7210 +1.15% ⬅️

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7478 +0.45%

India ↗️
$BSE 59444 +0.7%
Europe catching a bid ↗️ into the weekend

$DAX 14321 +1.7%
$FTSE 7641 +1.2%
$CAC 6578 +1.8%
$AEX 727 +1.45%
$IBEX 8600 +1.55%
$MIB 24843 +2.2% ⬅️
$SMI 12465 +0.75%
$MOEX 2623 -0.5% 🪆

$VSTOXX 32.53
Read 11 tweets
Quick thread on Price-to-Rent Ratio?

The price-to-rent ratio can be helpful for gauging whether or not an area is “fairly” priced, or if it’s in bubble territory.

To determine the price-to-rent ratio in a given area, divide the median home price by the median annual rent.
Generally, a price-to-rent ratio higher than 21 means it’s cheaper to rent in that area.

As of 2019, the price-to-rent ratio in San Francisco is over 50, the highest in the US.
For every $1,000 you’d spend in rent, you’d have to pay $601,362 to buy something comparable.
e.g. a place that rents for $4,000/mo. would cost roughly $2.4M to buy.

At that rate, it’s cheaper to rent than to own, as the estimated monthly mortgage payment would be around $10,000.
Read 7 tweets
1/4 Controversial article from @LHSummers, calling the #Fed to raise interest rates drastically to curb inflation. I understand frustration over the excessive monetary debasement and procyclical policy excesses in the past 2 years, but... washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
2/4 IMO this was driven by fiscal & health policy holding monetary policy hostage. @LHSummers compares the current situation too much with 70s, when reasons for inflation were different (credit vs. fiscal impulse) & conditions were different (debt levels and demographics).
3/4 40s are a better comp. IMO, focus should be to curb money supply growth (which is currently 14%pa) instead of obsessing over current CPI prints, especially when these are amplified by supply shocks. I believe #Fed knows this and will keep process smooth and accommodating.
Read 4 tweets

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