Thread by @kevinbonham

It's button press day in #VicVotes - not really democracy as such but it can still be fun! I will tweet the provisional results as I get them and this page will have both provisional results and commentary on the distributions once I've analysed them:

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/victor…

E Vic as expected

Heath (Lib)
McIntosh (ALP)
Bath (Nat)
Shing (ALP)
Bourman (SFF)

NE Met as expected

Leane (ALP)
Bach (Lib)
Terpstra (ALP)
McGowan (Lib)
Puglielli (GRN)

N Met as expected

Watt (ALP)
Mulholland (Lib)
Ratnam (Green)
Erdogan (ALP)
Somyurek (LDLP)

Just a reminder: these are provisional outcomes; the results are not declared yet, the distributions have to be examined to determine if there is any scope for recounts etc (though I don't expect any in the three that have come through yet). #vicvotes

N Vic as expected

Lovell (Lib)
Symes (ALP)
Broad (Nat)
Purcell (AJP)
Tyrrell (PHON)

Coming up now is SE Metro which has been the hardest one to model and where the last seat between Liberals and Lib Dems could go either way and the count will need to be examined to see how close it is (whoever wins).

SE Metro provisional winners:

Tarlamis (ALP)
Hermans (Lib)
Galea (ALP)
Payne (LCV)
Limbrick (LDP)

S Metro as expected all along

Davis (Lib)
Berger (ALP)
Crozier (Lib)
Copsey (Grn)
Batchelor (ALP)

Now we get W Metro where there is another weird one that's been hard to project this time between the Liberals and Finn (LDLP).

W Metro provisional

Blandthorn (ALP)
Deeming (Lib)
Stitt (ALP)
Ettershank (LCV)
Luu (Lib)

I had Luu as favourite but I wasn't sure about it. Another where we need to see the margin

Last is W Vic where there is what is on paper an extremely close contest between Legalise Cannabis and the Greens.

W Vic provisional:

Ermacora (ALP)
McArthur (Lib)
Tierney (ALP)
McCracken (Lib)
Mansfield (GRN)

I had Greens as favourites here but again need to see the margins.

Provisional Totals (error corrected)

Labor 15
Coalition 14
Greens 4
Legalise Cannabis 2
AJP, SFF, PHON, LDP, LDLP 1 each

ALP+Greens+(LC or AJP+1 other) = majority

Of the previous non-Greens crossbench of 10, 2 have provisionally been re-elected.

Consistent with general pattern that MPs who get elected by preference harvesting usually don't get re-elected, destroying any claim that Group Ticket Voting elects on merit.

Provisionally below the line voting busted 2 preference spirals to win from well behind for candidates who would have won if all votes were ATL. 6 still succeeded (not counting Somyurek who was the primary vote leader and may or may not have won anyway).

Still waiting for the preference distributions to go online. Regions will be declared from 6 pm if no issues are identified.

Limbrick won by 2615 votes!

W Metro very close but not recount territory in the final margin at least. Luu beat Finn by 210.

Greens must have done way better than LC on BTLs in W Vic, they win by 2870.

L Cann over Vic Soc in W Metro by 1788 votes, not surprising.

There don't seem to be any final margins close enough to trigger recounts - there might in theory still be something like a surplus-crossing tipping point so still need to check some more.

Note that while Bourman came from well behind to win via Group Tickets it's very possible he would have caught the Greens under a Senate style system based on preferencing patterns in his region. So it is not clear that that is an unfair result.

https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1602825563168641029

It is looking like Limbrick won by so much because he picked up heaps of BTLs off right (especially) micros even when they did not direct ATLs to him (not surprising given lockdown issues). Leakage out of Liberal ticket also helped.

Luu vs Finn panned out almost exactly as my modelling expected, save that Finn doing slightly better than Luu on BTLs made it closer but not close enough.

As noted here Limbrick's win is down not just to Group Ticket Voting but also to Victoria persisting with the undemocratic Inclusive Gregory system for surplus transfers.

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1602892291194003456

I also get that Luu beat Finn as a result of this undemocratic feature but in that case it cancelled out a win that would only have been caused by GTVs anyway, so a case of two undemocratic features cancelling each other out.

This Inclusive Gregory nonsense (a convenience relic from the manual count days) also persists in the Senate though with the abolition of GTV its chances to bite are somewhat reduced. Any MP who does not support fixing it should resign.

I've now written up about as much about the mechanics of the individual counts as I expect to write on the button press thread, which is here: kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/victor…

I haven't seen anything unusual that has happened with the structure of the counts or anything that would cause them to be challenged - unless anyone else has I'm assuming the 8 declarations are imminent.