Lets talk partisans, no not the political ones, the Ukrianian ones. From knife in the back teams to grandma's with cell phones partisans have been active in this war. Likely often teamed up with stay behinds and SOF teams they fill a few critical roles. First is the kinetic side
partisan warfare: assassinations, sabotage, small unit battles. This has been going on since the war began. We have all seen the reports of X or Y Russian official or collaborator getting blown up, or the reports of isolated Russian troops getting knifed on the darkened streets
of Kherson etc. Kinetic actions serve two primary functions. First is to aid the main war effort. A supply convoy that gets ambushed or hits an IED/minefield can't add to the fight at the front line. Occupation troops detailed off to fight partisans can't fight the Ukrainian Army
and the more the occupier tries to secure his rear areas the less combat power he has available to extend the area he occupies. The other side of the kinetic actions are to maintain a government presence. When an occupation official or collaborator gets the axe its a reminder to
everyone else that the occupation is not complete and that assuming it is can be deadly. This deters things like more collaboration, tax collection, economic activity and other things that would aid the invader. Thirdly kinetic activity helps foster the clandestine side of things
that they do. For example, even if a shop owner would prefer to sit it out, passing on info to the partisans or paying taxes aid the partisan effort. The clandestine side includes gathering intelligence, spreading propaganda and keeping a wedge between the occupiers
and the locals. So lets talk about those 3 things. Recently a Chechen/Wagner base was hit. HIMARS did the killing but who do you think provided the targeting data? As an aside, the strike may also have served to divert attention away from a bridge that was then targeted for
demolition in a very kinetic way. Hundreds of Russian assembly areas, depots and command posts have been targeted. Many of them using intel provided by partisans. Though its more than just the big showy targets. Since anyone can be a partisan is that lady cleaning your company
commander's boots or the boy begging for food outside the wire also counting tanks and logging patrol schedules? Areas heavily infested by partisans mean the occupier is strong where they are and have some local influence but the farther from the base, the less control they have
and as partisan activity goes up the zone of local control shrinks down to the street the patrol is standing on in some cases. It becomes impossible for the occupier to move without the partisans knowing. Think the boy with the radio in Black Hawk Down. Thats how easy it can be
gather intel. Relaying it by radio, cellphone ap, Starlink terminal messengers etc back to higher command and eventually to the Ukrainian government. Partisans help the government build a much more complete picture of where the Russians are, what they have, and what they are
doing there. From chalk on a wall to full blown posters to some simple humanitarian good will gesture and even courts and tax collection keep the idea that Ukraine will be back front and center. The Russians know all this. They know every set of eyes could be a partisan, that
every road or bridge could be mined, that anyplace they gather is going to be visited by HIMARS. It keeps them isolated from the population. Can't win hearts and minds if you are scared of them. It also encourages repression and reprisals. When the Russians lash out and commit a
war crime, the net result is fewer Ukrainians willing to support Russia or sit on the sidelines. Every person filtered, tortured or disappeared has friends and family. By trying to stamp out partisan activity you actually encourage it. During WWII the Germans never eradicated
partisans. After WWII it took a Soviet Army and NKVD/KGB that did not have to divert its attention 10 years to eradicate the last of the partisans in Ukraine and the Baltics and some survived into the 1960's. The modern Russian Army is not the Soviet Army and its attention is
very much divided. A final thing partisans do is smuggle. They have to be able to get people and weapons in and often get people out like downed airmen, wounded comrades people with blown covers etc. This is the less sexy but still a critical role of the partisans.
So in summary Partisans: divert enemy resources, provide critical intelligence, disrupt pacification
efforts, maintain Ukrainian government presence in the occupied areas and provide a route for people and goods to move back and forth between the free and occupied areas. I think
it may well be worth @MriyaReport's effort to find an old Cold War green beret to talk about partisans. Fostering partisan movements to fight Russians is why JFK created them and they were initially filled with lots of WWII vets who fled communism. I hope ya'll enjoyed this essay
but honestly I look forward to the day when I don't have to sit here day after day trying to come up with some new and interesting topic I think will aid Ukraine. Of not having to tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill every day telling them send more, send better and
send now. I look forward to the day when the warriors of Ukraine including the @georgian_legion and @belwarriors no longer face combat but are looking to the liberation of their homelands because Russia has been defeated. When the calls to donate to @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua
@LibertyUkraineF, @UkraineAidOps, and @3xR_team are to help rebuilding and demining. When the #FELLAS of #NAFO are not just talking about a beach party but actively buying tickets. I presume getting a visa stamp to visit Ukraine after hundreds to thousands of pro-Ukrainian tweets
won't be a problem. When there is no more genocide. That requires victory so Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukrani! @mfa_russia <--- still losing and maybe Putin should visit the occupied areas. I am sure the locals would give him a warm welcome.
So recently Gen Zaluzhnyi gave an interview in which he said a few things of things of note. 1. He expects an attack from Belarus in the Spring. 2. Ukriane has a winter offensive getting ready to kick off and 3. He needs the equivalent of two divisional sets of heavy equipment.
To the first point, if he is serious that he expects an attack out of Belarus in the spring this will tie down significant Ukrainian forces. If he expects a 100-200K strong invasion force he has to match that. The old adage is the attacker needs 3x what the defender needs but
applies only when the battle is joined. Until then the attacker has the advantage because he only has to be strong where he wants to attack, while the defender must be strong enough everywhere he might attack. This is why demonstration forces can tie down such large numbers of
Today's topic is a bit dirty so put on your muck boots. Most of us have seen pictures or video of American forward operating bases in Afghanistan and Iraq. Everything from small encampments trying to keep observation on a valley to bigger bases with mobile Burger Kings and PX
stores. We've never seen an American or allied soldier hungry or freezing and haven't since Korea. America has always been able to sustain its troops in large part because we had permissive environments. Permissive is not a word to use in Ukraine. First the sheer density of air
defense systems and relative scarcity of rotary wing aircraft make the US model impossible even on a small scale and scale matters. Hundreds of thousands of men are fighting in Ukraine and tens of thousands are on the front lines. Each and every one of them needs a lot of food,
Lets talk peace. Seems to be what Russia wants to talk about so lets do it. Of course anyone engaging in such a discussion needs to know a few things. First, Russia has never honored a single international agreement she signed. Most importantly the Budapest Memorandum. She signed
that in 1994 and promised to respect Ukraine's borders. Second, Russia does not feel bound by international law. For example, it is illegal under Interational law to annex territory or forcibly transfer children. More of those international agreements Russia signs but does not
honor. Third any pause in the fighting will provide time for Russia to train her mobiks, reconstitute units and dig in making any future Ukrainian counter-offensive much harder and bloodier and also limit Russian losses to the cold and wet by allowing the bulk of the invaders to
There is one part of Ukraine that while frozen is extremely hot. Building up a clear picture of what's going around Bakhmut is not possible. Opsec, dis/mis-info, fog of war and the ever-changing realities of the moment to moment have mostly drawn a curtain over what we can the
city. However there are a couple of specks of light we can use to infer something. First, it looks like the Ukrainian defenders are undergoing a replacement cycle. It looks like the 93rd Brigade is being pulled out and replaced.
Thats pretty typical of meat grinders, units can only sustain high intensity operations for so long before they first lose their edge and eventually just lose. We know its high intensity from a couple of other sources. First is this
One of the things we value in Arkansas is family. Having 2 of my 3 kids and all 3 of my grandbabies here was awesome but tiring. Luckily I have heat and power and the weather was merely wet not freezing.
How many Ukranian grandparents who live rural lives like me are suddenly refuges because they have a wood stove or a generator? The strike on Odesa means those with such grandparents are the lucky ones. They may have to leave the city but don't have to become refugees. There is
Only 1 answer to Russian evil: send more, send better and send now. That's the message elected leaders like @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill need to hear everyday. That message needs to be backed by action. Who are you donating to? There are several good charities
I know Saturdays are normally my extra-long threads but not today. I am not shy about being a recovering addict. In the middle of my addiction I gave up my daughter for adoption to my ex's new husband. I did not think I would survive. I did and about a year ago we reconnected.
she is here now along with my 3 grandkids. So what's this got to do with Ukraine? The future is usually brighter than the present and if the work is put in the sun will shine again. I had to work hard to beat addiction, we have to work hard to help Ukraine beat Russia. I don't
tag @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill day after day month after month for nothing. Send more, send better and send now is the best way I can summarize what Ukraine needs to liberate her people and lands and stop a genocide. Likewise the charities I push