Some details from ONI:
- additional Type 055 cruisers are under construction. We've seen signs of this in O/S imagery, but good to see confirmation.
- 7+ Type 052DL DDGs under construction. We've seen 5 building at Dalian, and 1 or 2 at Jiangnan shipyard (looks like it's 2).
Here is some of my previous speculation based on imagery of Jiangnan shipyard. At the time, I had thought that in spotted there were for a Type 055, then received feedback they were probably 052DL parts. Turns out that perhaps the answer was: Yes, both! 😐
Another update: looks like the PLAN is up to 15+ hovercraft now (2020 chart showed 10+)
As discussed in the recent China Military Power Report, the charts shows 22 Type 056 FFLs transferred from the PLA Navy to the China Coast Guard.
In with the new, out with the old: looks like the PLAN has gotten rid of more of its older, obsolescent ships, though I'd note that some of these are of about the same age as the first USN Arleigh Burke class destroyers (if nowhere near the same capability).
On that note, on the left what the USN was building in 1991 vs. on the right what the PLA Navy was building then...
...aaaand on the left what the USN is building now vs. on the right what the PLA Navy is building now 😐
To clarify, the comparisons above weren't to poke at the Burke class, which has been a fantastic success, nor to minimize the advances in the Flight III or say whether a Type 055 is "better".
The point was to highlight the incredible strides the PLAN has made over that timeframe.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This article by Dr. Timothy Heath (of RAND) came out today and has been getting a bit of attention. A few thoughts, since part of it bears on a key area of interest for me - the cross-Taiwan Strait military balance. warontherocks.com/2022/12/is-chi…
His argument is that claimed evidence of a threat to Taiwan is overblown, specifically:
- reports pointing to 2027 as a date for military options
- statements by CCP officials calling for unification
- a perception of a growing cross-Strait PRC military advantage
He says that their significance has been overstated, and goes further to say there is a "conspicuous lack of evidence that the government has decided to pursue a military solution to the island."
Strong words, that.
Stephen Wertheim points out here the likely staggering (& frankly, kinda obvious) costs of a US-PRC conflict: risks of thousands of US/allied fatalities within hours, devastating cyberattacks, economic devastation, the possibility of nuclear escalation... nytimes.com/2022/12/02/opi…
...but some key things are missing.
He says: "U.S. relations with China are in free fall," that Biden "is contributing to the rising chances of conflict with China," and "...international relations have deteriorated in recent years..."
So...WHY is that? Didn't we try engagement?
Hardly a peep about China's massive and pointed military buildup, its ongoing threats to Taiwan, bullying of other neighbors and threats to the rules-based order—which has largely kept the peace for generations.
It's almost like he hasn't read my work...🤷♂️warontherocks.com/2017/02/has-ch…
Some fresh @googleearth imagery of Hudong shipyard in Shanghai (10/17/22), showing expected progress on the 3rd Type 075 LHD, Thailand's 071E LPD, and two 054A frigates.
More interesting on a closer look, though...
Is this section of hull under construction, which appears to have a beam of about 18 meters.
This other photo went around a few days ago, showing what were claimed to be sections of the new 054B frigate under construction (h/t: @AlexLuck9)
To save you the trouble of reading the whole thing, here are the places I could find where the 2022 DoD China Military Power Report mentions the use of civilian maritime vessels (RORO ships in particular) to augment PRC sealift—& thus to raise the risk of an invasion of Taiwan:
Me, seeing the PRC's likely use of civilian RoRo shipping to provide additional sealift get mentioned in at least half a dozen spots throughout the 2022 China Military Power Report: