Written a decade ago, the article was about how clinicians too often falsely reassured patients w/terminal #cancer that treatment was working just fine.
There are many parallels b/w cancer cancer, the pandemic, & climate change.
In the U.S., the "rosy picture" differs by political ideology.
Today in the NEJM: The conservative rosy picture is that COVID is like a cold or the flu. The liberal rosy picture is that leaders are doing just fine by pushing vax-and-relax.
The relative "lull" in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to go much lower.
✨1 in 209 people are estimated actively infectious, likely the lowest levels of 2025 nationwide.
Get boosted. Stock up on masks, tests, & filters.
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
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No data presently suggest the rise of a winter wave any earlier than "usual."
If following historical trends, transmission will pick up Nov 15-29. Last year's rise was atypically late.
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
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Expect rising misinformation/disinformation as transmission heats up:
🔹Abuse of community notes, particularly surrounding wastewater methodology
🔹Paid bot army attacks, especially about boosters & masks
Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.
We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.
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PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)
Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.
Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.
2/9 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)
We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.
Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.
SARS-CoV-2 transmission has fallen.
🔹1 in 191 (0.5%) actively infectious
🔹"Lull" levels at 20% of the summer peak
🔹255,000 new daily infections (still concerning)
Many will knock out higher-risk activities the next 2-4 weeks.
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PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)
"Lull" transmission remains dangerous:
🔹1.8 million estimated new weekly infections
🔹>90,000 estimated new #LongCOVID conditions from this week's infections
🔹>500 excess deaths to result from this week's infections
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PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)
Exposure risk during "lull" transmission remains high when engaging in many social interactions.
Interacting with 25 people yields a 12% chance of exposure. 100 people? 41% chance of exposure, assuming no testing/isolation.
The PMC website includes an international directory of websites with COVlD wastewater monitoring. It is more up to date than the directories of the EU and WHO.
Let's review what's happening in Europe...
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Data in #Austria show a rising COVlD wave. The x axis (bottom) has infrequent labels, but the data shown go through October 8th.
An estimated 1 in 81 people are actively infectious during the ongoing 11th wave.
The "shutdown" has created a blackout at the state level.
Transmission is half that of the peak one month ago, and we anticipate a relative national "lull" in early-to-mid November, albeit still at dangerous levels.
Our model uses a combination of CDC and Biobot data, so we are able to estimate national statistics despite the CDC data going offline. On the map, note that Puerto Rico continues to update; they use a CDC-style system but were dropped by the CDC long ago. For full methodology, review the technical appendix on the website.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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#DuringCOVID is today. We estimate >600,000 new daily infections. This is about half the peak on September 6.
Notice current levels are similar to the estimated peaks of the first 3 waves.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
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Weekly estimates:
🔹4.5 million infections
🔹>200,000 resulting long-term health conditions
🔹>1,300 resulting excess deaths
Key points in my letter to the pharmacy boards. 🧵1/7
Georgia law indicates that the pharmacy board is to follow ACIP. They do not dictate further nuance. Georgia continues to require prescriptions, going against the spirit of the law, ACIP, and 47 other states.
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Louisiana law tells the pharmacy board to follow ACIP. ACIP says do not require a prescription, and 47 other states agree.
The Louisiana pharmacy board continues to require a prescription.