Thread by @SteveAkehurst

What happens when voters see Labour politicians talking about climate change?



A short thread on an interesting new experiment I helped @LCEF_UK with - a great new organisation launching today. via @OpiniumResearch 🧵 #ukclimate

Firstly, why we did this: in short because there was a lot of snark from the usual places (‘sources’) on the electoral logic of Labour talking so much about green issues at conference.

We wanted to investigate if this was well founded - or if they are zombie takes.

Methodology: quite cool I think. We did a video RCT test.

We looked at the ‘outcome’ attitudes of those who saw a 60 sec vid of Starmer or Reeves talking climate compared to (a) a group who saw same politician talking about a different issue (b) control group who saw nothing

Topline: seeing Starmer talk about Labour’s climate commitment increased Lab voting intention by 6-8%.



53% of those who saw this video went on to say they will vote Lab, compared to 45% of those who saw nothing and 47% compared to those who saw him talk public services.

Importantly, these ‘gains’ were heightened among the kind of voters Labour needs most: non-grads, over-40s.



This is because Lab starts from a lower base with these voters. But also because they are just less engaged and don’t hear from the party as much. They still care!

Elsewhere, the Starmer climate video clearly increased his personal ratings, personal qualities - and the sense that Labour has a ‘clear vision for the future’.



In this, it again beat both the non-climate (public services) video and no video.

Finally, watching Reeves talk about Labour’s climate commitment increased the likelihood that people prefer her as Chancellor to Hunt by 4% more than the non-climate (public services) video. +16% vs nothing.



It also significantly increased her personal ratings.

All told, pretty definitive proof that when voters see Labour talk climate action, green energy & jobs that they like it. It improves their standing both absolutely + relatively.



The real task is getting this message in front of less engaged voters - not the message itself.

Please do follow @LCEF_UK, headed up by the great @paul_mcnamee_ - their aim is to do what @CEN_HQ have done so well in the Conservative Party. The full report plus wider polling/focus group stuff is on lcef.co.uk.

Full data: opinium.com/resource-cente…

Notes: videos shown to survey respondents were the climate + public services sections of KS + RR conf speeches. 1,000 ppl per treatment/control group in November 2022 via @OpiniumResearch. Margin of error = +3%.



KS: labour.org.uk/press/keir-sta…



RR: labour.org.uk/press/rachel-r…