NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week?

@Persuasion_UK has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵 The polling was done via @YouGov in the closing days of the campaign in England (n=2153) where elections were held, Scotland (n=1603) and Wales (n=1556) as voters were preparing to vote.

All informed by focus groups and preliminary polling in the run up.

NEW: After the Gorton by-election, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left?

Big new @Persuasion_UK report out with @38degrees on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems.

Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵 Most pollsters will now show you Labour losing more to the left than right.

These are not, despite what some say, ‘metro libs’ in safe seats - they’re spread out in electoral battlegrounds all over the country. Labour’s 2024 victory was partly built on them, esp in Blue Wall.

What are the main reasons voters have switched from Labour?

Winter fuel allowance trumps all else.

After that, impatience over public services + cost of living.

Immigration less salient. Net Zero of no salience whatsoever. Scandals less than I expected.

via @YouGov Here it is broken down by 2024 vote

NEW: What is it that is shaping voter opinion ahead of the Budget next week?

Some new @Persuasion_UK and @IPPR research out today, involving several fairly unique experiments.

A short 🧵 on this below! Firstly, what is it voters will punish and reward this Govt for most?

We set up an experiment showing voters a range of outcomes & trade-offs that might form the basis of the government's first-term in 2029.

We can then see what impact each has on government’s approvals.

Neglected fact: getting more housebuilding is about more than planning reform.

Here’s an important graph for understanding that:

Developers have consistently under-delivered on their planning permissions for years.

🧵 on why and why it matters As mentioned, this phenomenon - builders with consents not building - is not new, it’s been the case for ages.

Flummoxed by it, in 2018 the Conservative government commissioned Oliver Letwin to figure out what was going on.

What he found was startling.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b2d1ab2…

A thread of some random polling bits and bobs which tell us a few interesting things about voters in this election campaign.

All from a survey I ran recently with @OpiniumResearch, - leaving here mostly for posterity! 🧵 #GE2024 On tax cuts vs public services, even when you spell out what tax cuts mean for people and make them *big*, ppl still prefer spend it on public services.

(Suggests to me Lab had more space to run on 'investment vs spending cuts', but that's a bigger argument !)

As someone who obsesses over public attitudes to climate/Net Zero as a day job, fwiw a quick thread summarising my take on the electoral politics of Sunak's announcements yesterday. 🧵 Swing voters hold 2 things in their heads concurrently:

1. They have some sympathy (albeit variable/soft) for *some* of govt’s individual policy positions yesterday.

2. They're strongly pro-NZ/environment and don't like anti-green politicians. This is too often under-estimated

Some new polling to try and get at this "voters support Net Zero but won’t pay for it" zombie take running wild in recent days.

via @focaldataHQ

(apologies for yet another thread on this but it's been annoying me and, more importantly, is now actively shaping Govt policy!) 🧵 Firstly some new numbers to back up an old point: people's willingness to pay for Net Zero is no worse than most other major policy areas. (actually for some its better, incl among swing voters)

It's only the NHS which clear majorities are actively willing to take a hit for.

An ongoing thread on the risk - to both parties - of reading way too much from Uxbridge/ULEZ into wider voter attitudes on the environment and climate change.

Posting it here not least for posterity. 🧵 Whatever your view of ULEZ, it’s always been far more contentious than other green policy. Here's it's the only one in negative territory nationally.

It’s joined btw by fracking + North Sea drilling - policies pushed by NZ sceptics. So no lectures from them on public opinion.

I really don’t agree with this.

It’s not the right combination of words lacking. Voters already get the threat of climate change.

IMO it’s the infrastructure with which to get that story heard by people consistently.

(yes sorry it’s a 🧵)

theguardian.com/commentisfree/… In wankier terms, the issue is not sympathy but salience.

The extent to which people think climate a problem and want action is now consistently high (left).

The degree to which it’s a priority ebs and flows far more (right).

What happens when voters see Labour politicians talking about climate change?



A short thread on an interesting new experiment I helped @LCEF_UK with - a great new organisation launching today. via @OpiniumResearch 🧵 #ukclimate Firstly, why we did this: in short because there was a lot of snark from the usual places (‘sources’) on the electoral logic of Labour talking so much about green issues at conference.

We wanted to investigate if this was well founded - or if they are zombie takes.

How do views of UK MPs on climate change compare to the public? In short, there's a few alarming gaps.

A quick thread on new polling with @ECIU_UK, plus a few thoughts (some hope and some despair!) #ukclimate #cop27egypt 👇🧵 Methodology: two polls via @YouGov in October 2022:

- one poll of 103 MPs, weighted to be representative of party, region, length of service etc

- one poll of 1,800 UK adults

MP surveys are never perfect methodologically, but YouGov do a really good job of them.

NEW: We've heard what your uncle on Facebook thinks, but what do UK voters at large think about the recent heat wave?

Some new @OpiniumResearch polling for @ECIU_UK just out, fieldwork Monday/Tuesday this week 👇🧵 To start with, 70% of voters think the recent high temperatures are being caused at least in part by climate change.

New @Opinium polling shows UK public overwhelmingly fear the costs of inaction on climate change more than the costs of action.

Completely contrary to what a small number of MPs have been arguing recently. #ukclimate Alternatively you can say that across all demographics - Remain, Leave, young, old - voters worry more about the #costofSteveBaker than they do the #CostOfNetZero …!