Thread by @JBelcourt73

So recently Gen Zaluzhnyi gave an interview in which he said a few things of things of note. 1. He expects an attack from Belarus in the Spring. 2. Ukriane has a winter offensive getting ready to kick off and 3. He needs the equivalent of two divisional sets of heavy equipment.

To the first point, if he is serious that he expects an attack out of Belarus in the spring this will tie down significant Ukrainian forces. If he expects a 100-200K strong invasion force he has to match that. The old adage is the attacker needs 3x what the defender needs but

applies only when the battle is joined. Until then the attacker has the advantage because he only has to be strong where he wants to attack, while the defender must be strong enough everywhere he might attack. This is why demonstration forces can tie down such large numbers of

troops. A lot of the Ukrainian defenders will undoubtably be TDF units mainly light infantry equipped much like they were for the first battle of Kyiv, but some of the units will be mobile reserves and rapid reaction forces that have tanks and IFV's. This brings up point two.

What he has for a winter counter offensive has to be done with its mission and in good enough shape to be shifted to the North and West before the spring mud season ends. The winter campaign season is a short one because the assault troops have to be done and repositioned to meet

the expected Belarussian troops before the spring mud season starts. I think Ukraine may be having issues with AFV's. This will lead us to point three but let me explain. Ukraine has captured hundreds of AFV's from the Russians so why the need for more from the West? A. There is

a shortage of spares needed to rehab the captured kit and get it back into the field. B. Ukrainian losses are or are expected to be higher than we currently think they are. C. For tanks and artillery there is a real shortage of soviet style ammunition. D. He meant Western tanks

western upgraded Soviet models that have modern thermals allowing a greater use at night to maximize the Ukrainian ability to attack where the Russians are weak not just in force density but in tech deficiencies. All of them are likely correct to an extent. The request for more

kit outlined in my point three is that he wants an armored force that is fully kitted out for his own offensives next spring and summer in the South and East. Thats the only reason he needs 700 IFV's. These don't need to have thermals, they just need to be able to get infantry

through the Russian artillery kill boxes. Russia's lack of precision fires capability means shrapnel protection is usually going to be enough to get the job done if the tanks and Ukrainian artillery can force the defenders too keep their heads down until the assault troops are on

top of them. Big IF, but that is how it is supposed to work. Of course we need to get to the spring and summer first. Right now the unusually warm and wet weather has everything stuck in the mud. While this delays the Ukrainian counter stroke its going to be playing hell with the

Russian logistics system. The combination of mud, destroyed infrastructure and partisan attacks is likely creating bottlenecks leading to the big ammo explosions we have seen over the past couple of days. I think its possible these are less depots going up that holding areas

forced on the Russians by the mud. Speaking of mud, the Russian positions in front of Bakhmut must be Hell on Earth. Cold, soaking wet, nearly impossible supply situation against a defender that has interior lines and an ability to rotate troops and shelter from the weather. At

this point I really think the Russian effort is aimed more at getting into winter quarters before snow and ice force them to fall back or lose their army. The fighting remains hot even if the weather isn't so lets make sure our support continues. The message I am sending to

@JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, @RepFrenchHill remains the same: send more, send better, send now! If Ukraine needs tanks, send them tanks. Also, Christmas is right around the corner. Yesterday I encourage people to not buy Trump NFT's but to buy a stamp set of Patron.

Here is the link amazon.com/UKRPOSHTA-Mine…

I turned mine into a shadow box with a visit to Hobby Lobby and a Ukraine morale patch that @Teoyaomiquu sent me. Of course you don't have to buy the stamps, you could just give the money to a worthwhile cause. Units like the 92nd Brigade supported by @LibertyUkraineF or the

@georgian_legion and @belwarriors and charities like @MriyaAid, @UkraineAidOps, and @3xR_team that deliver aid more generally to the military and civilians of Ukraine. One final point, apparently there was a banning of #NAFO #FELLAS who were bots. I see we are all still here.

The trolls remain convinced that normal people would never rally to oppose genocide. We continue to prove them wrong. I know a lot of you are mad at @elonmusk but I encourage you to get verified. The $8 a month or whatever it costs where you are to get the blue checkmark will

drive the Kleptogradians mad. You will see rumors of blue bots and Elon is rally CIA etc start to trend among them. Kim Dotscam in particular will explode like the Stat Puffed Marshmallow Man lit up by the Ghost Busters. Until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini

@mfa_russia <--- still losing lives, boots in the mud and soon when it freezes fingers and toes.

@mfa_russia @threadreaderapp unroll please