Thread by @Haghaie

Where is #Iran heading?🧵

1- After almost 4 months of protests, Iran can't afford a return to the way things were prior to the killing of #MahsaAmini. As i predicted in Oct Iran enters a period of hyper-uncertainty & instability; a period in which the regime won't be able to...

2- extinguish #IranRevoIution & Iranians cannot topple the regime in the immediate future. But, given the regime's use of extreme forms of repression (i.e. summary executions of teenagers) all bridges btw people & regime are burnt. Now, all bets are off!

https://twitter.com/Haghaie/status/1580642791709110272?s=20&t=gYyXCoOH4lItvrk0Xbk_ig

3- Regardless of state narratives of victory over "rioters", neither side is winning or losing. For now, #Iran & #Khamenei's regime have fought themselves into a stalemate. The country is a powder keg ready to explode but we never know when the next volcano of protest will erupt.

4- It's only a matter of time before huge waves of protest erupt on the streets of Iranian cities, thou we're still witnessing sporadic protests in Zahedan & elsewhere. The regime may falsely interpret that because of the ultra-violent repression, the people are so scared that...

5- they won't come out for the next round. What the regime is unaware of is that when a state uses barbaric methods of repression at such huge scale (sometimes ISIS-style), it's in actuality arousing not only feelings of fear but also anger + emotional solidarity among people.

6- It's the equilibrium btw fear & anger that will determine the endgame of #IranRevoIution.

After the execution of #MohsenShekari & #MajidrezaRahnavard, the country is in a state of moral shock & unbridled anger.

The regime opted for the tactic of executions purposefully...

7- In doing so, the regime tried to mediatize violent suppression as part of its "management of savagery" strategy to show that it's not bounded by any moral considerations when it comes to regime survival. It was #Khamenei's declaration of war against protesters, a warning to...

8- Iran's “Generation Z”, known as "Dahe Hashtadi/Haftadi" in Persian who've become the bane of life for repressive regimes such as those in #Iran, Russia & China. Knowing that Iran cannot revert to the status-quo ante, we might see a highly unpredictable situation in which...

9- after a short period of mourning, trauma & reflection, the people including the Gen Z would, under continued repression, respond to the regime's unforgivable sins by adopting DIFFERENT strategies.

Although the oppressed in #Iran have their own "choice points"/ alternatives...

10- it's highly likely that the revolutionary movement becomes deeply radicalized & we see militant forms of resistance vs. the regime.

So, this time IRI made a huge miscalculation by resorting to spectacular violence: arresting/torturing/killing teenagers many of them girls.

11- It's a miscalculation bcs moral indignation helps people overcome fear, which in turn contributes to mass mobilization. We're not there yet.

As i noted, the situation is extremely volatile/fluid. The stalemate situation is likely to persist for a while before the next storm.

12- That the regime has weathered #IranRevoIution is an overstatement. The 'best' the IRI can fulfill is to prolonged its downfall for 2-3 more yrs max. The regime can't guarantee its survival. It's now living on borrowed time because Iranians simply do not want this evil regime.

13- Of course, toppling this thuggish regime is no easy feat. Iranians need int'l support in their struggle for freedom & dignity. The support by US/UK/EU's has, as of yet, not turned into a major policy change vs. the regime. The West should know that Iranians are fully aware...

14- that THEY are the only ones who will determine their own fate but the US/European powers can facilitate the 'conditions of possibility' for regime change by the Iranian people thru implementation of the highest punitive measures against the regime, i.e., proscribing #IRGC...

15- as a terrorist organization, opting for 'Maximum Pressure' policy, exiting the nuclear talks & expelling ambassadors of the regime. Such measures, if implemented, will help #Iran sustain less costs [human/economic/...] in their noble struggle for freedom and human dignity.

16- In the final analysis, the Islamic Republic as an idea is long gone, it's dead! Only a derelict façade is left of this evil regime. That'll also collapse as Iranians keep the pressure on, as women & men are sacrificing their lives for freedom. Help them, be their voice!
#Iran