Ben Chu Profile picture
Dec 18 4 tweets 2 min read
Quick note nn this idea that the NHS Pay Review Body's recommendations on pay increases were reasonable at the time they were made, but were overtaken by adverse events such as the invasion of Ukraine etc...
...worth noting this paragraph below from the body's report when it was published in July - it was explicitly working on Bank of England projections of a 10% inflation rate in 2022... gov.uk/government/pub…
...so members must have been aware they were recommending a real terms pay cut for NHS staff.

It's possible some of the initial submissions/analysis assumed a lower inflation peak, but by the time the recommendations were *formally* made the picture on price rises was clear.
...ICYMI our #Newsnight explainer on how the Pay Review Bodies work here:

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More from @BenChu_

Nov 20
How has the UK economy *really* performed relative to other G7 economies since 2010?

📉📈🧐

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A chart thread 🧵...1/
...Some have been scratching their heads over Jeremy Hunt's recent claims the UK has experienced the third strongest growth in the G7 since 2010...2/
...Which is understandable given we're often told the period since 2010 has been one of poor growth for the UK and relative economic decline.

So what's actually going on?...3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 17
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt kicks off #AutumnStatement

Says priorities are "stability, growth, public services"...
..."High inflation is the enemy of stability....hurts the poorest the most"...
..."We need fiscal and monetary policy to work together".

Wants Treasury "lockstep" with the Bank of England...
Read 23 tweets
Nov 14
Are we potentially facing "Austerity 2.0" in the #AutumnStatement because of the fallout from the #MiniBudget?

Or is it because of economic forces beyond the UK, such as the energy crisis and rising *global* interest rates?

Explanatory chart thread 🧵...1/
...To attempt an answer, go back to the last set of official forecasts we had from the @OBR_UK back in March.

The government was then projected to be borrowing around £32bn in 2026-27 (the final year of the forecast period) and to be *meeting* its fiscal rules...2/ Image
...The @resfoundation (similar to other forecasters) now expects borrowing in that year to be around £90bn and for the government to *break* its fiscal rules.

So what’s driving that £58bn projected increase in borrowing?...3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 11
The media is awash with talk of a “fiscal hole” that needs to be filled with tax rises/spending cuts in next week's #AutumnStatement.

But what is this "fiscal hole" & how worried should we be about it?

A thread... 🧵1/
...The first thing to stress is that it’s NOT some kind of hard financial limit on government spending or borrowing, which, if breached, means disastrous things automatically happen...2/
...Rather, it’s a measure of how far off course the government is from meeting its own fiscal rules, the main plank of which has been to have the national debt falling as a share of the overall economy in three years' time, implying the financial year 2025-26...3/
Read 22 tweets
Nov 8
What does the latest data suggest about the impact of Brexit on UK trade?

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Brief chart 🧵...
...The raw goods export data from the Office for National Statisics *suggests* a recovery.

After a sharp fall after the UK left the single market, volumes of exports and imports from the EU are now back *above* where they were before...
...And goods exports to the EU have actually grown by more than our exports to the rest of the world...
Read 8 tweets
Oct 28
UPDATE on #AutumnStatement

No final decisions yet taken but #Newsnight understands it will likely...

- Target debt falling as share of GDP in 5 years' time (not 3 years, as per existing rule)...
...

- Cuts to departmental spending likely to be pencilled in for *after* the current Spending Review period ends in 2024/25 - though no compensation for departments for higher inflation *in* Spending Review period so de facto real terms cuts...
...

- Despite backdating of spending cuts, will still be significant fiscal consolidation in next 2 years aswell

- Real terms cuts to benefits not ruled out, ditto suspension of triple lock

- Capital spending cuts (infrastructure) still in play...
Read 4 tweets

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