Chris Black Profile picture
Dec 21 13 tweets 5 min read
Last #BlueJays ⚾️🧵 of 2022 is on one of the biggest questions heading into 2023 & beyond: Bo Bichette's defence.

Let's start here: Did you know Bichette's Def. Runs Saved was +7 from 2019-21? 12th among MLB SS in that time.
But, Outs Above Average has never been a huge fan of Bichette's D & his DRS plummeted in 2022 to -16, which ranked 238th out of 243 MLB players to 500+ innings of defensive play.
Let's establish this: He is going to want to stay at SS. It makes the best sense for him for his career & future free agency.

It also makes sense for the Jays to see if he can figure it out because the bat is historically good.

Check out the comp to age-24 with Tulo & Nomar. Image
Let's also establish this: It was only Bo's second full MLB season last year. He had 216 career starts at SS coming into '22. That's not very many at all.

What did I see after watching a ton of tape? Some obvious throwing issues, but also some passive lines/reactions:
All of those examples above were instances where, in my opinion, he could have read ball off bat a bit better, and been a bit more explosive to take a more aggressive line & get the ball earlier.

Like the examples below!
Great note from @MarkASimonSays who told me that in 2021, Bichette made 53% of the plays to his left, which was above-average!

But in 2022, that dropped to 45%, meaning Bichette made about 15 fewer plays than an average SS on balls to his left.

That seems notable/problematic!
Let's add context: From 2003 to 2021, only 2 shortstops at Bichette's age or younger had ever posted a lower DRS than Bo's -16:

Hanley Ramirez (2007) -28
Tim Anderson (2017) -23

Here's a wacky (& perhaps encouraging) note: The following year Anderson was a +12.
From the Outs Above Average world: Carlos Correa was a -22 in his first two full seasons, but has been a +45 in 5 years since:
Paul DeJong is another example of someone who turned it around: -19 OAA first 2 yrs, +14 since.

So, there's reason to believe Bo can improve & less reason/precedent to believe he will move.

Consider:
Stats Inc. told me over last 50 years, *only* 5 shortstops who logged 3,000+ innings up to their age-24 season moved off the position at some point between ages 25-28:

Starlin Castro
Orlando Arcia
Jose Offerman
Jhonny Peralta
Wil Cordero

So, it's possible, but unlikely (to me).
One small note: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays find more opportunities for Bichette to DH in 2023.

From 2019-21, roughly 8% of Bichette's starts were at DH (once every ~12 games).

Last year, he DH'd once in 158 games (0.6%).
So with more rest, more reps, more motivation to improve on a below-avg year, Bo will be closer to league avg in 2023 & that's all you need because the bat is elite!

But, if he struggles again & without shifts to help cover, we could be talking about a position switch in 2024. Image
Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to everyone!
I hope you enjoyed my (free) work in 2022.
Here's to bigger & better things in 2023! Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Chris Black

Chris Black Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DownToBlack

Dec 24
So, the popular Day 1 bullet points on Varsho are elite defence, power, can't hit lefties. What else do you need to know about his game?

A short #BlueJays ⚾️🧵on their newest acquisition.

Let's start here: He can swipe bags!

25+ HR & 15+ SB - 2022 MLB Image
Remember: new rules on pitch clocks, pick offs, and bigger bases will place a greater emphasis on the running game...

So here's another aspect of the game where Varsho will improve the Jays overall...
Next: Varsho's overall numbers might improve because of the shifting rules. Along with Kiermaier & Biggio, Jays have a few hitters now whose performance might spike up just a touch because of this in '23
Read 4 tweets
Dec 24
One reason the Jays season ended prematurely: Outfield D.

Raimel Tapia didn't make 2 plays that were at least possible to make & the Springer-Bichette collision was on a ball that should have been caught. Simple as that.

But this was a microcosm of a season-long issue.
Saying goodbye to Teo, Lourdes & Tapia isn't about highlight grabs. It's about 50/50 balls, plays most of us honestly just forget. This was Toronto's weakness in the outfield. Too many catchable balls dropping.

Teoscar Hernandez: -3 Outs Above Average, jump -0.3 ft vs MLB avg
Lourdes Gurriel: -5 OAA, jump -1.4 ft vs MLB avg
Read 8 tweets
Aug 13
A brief interruption from tennis for a short #NextLevel #BlueJays 🇨🇦⚾️🧵 on Jose Berrios.

It's about what happens when something stops working, how you try to adjust & a prediction about the off-season.

Let's start here: His 4-seam pitch chart from last night....
Easy to look at chart above & say, "he couldn't locate his 4-seamer" but when you look at tape, that's not where I land.

I see someone who has told himself he almost will never throw a 4-seamer over the plate (of note, of the 3 he threw over the plate: bunt single, HR, single)
It makes sense. 4-seam has been issue all year & the team has been trying to work around it (w/ some success)

They moved him on mound, threw more sinkers, threw more breakers & here's 2 undisputable truths: He's throwing it less often & less in the zone than he ever has before
Read 12 tweets
Mar 27, 2021
Gary Trent Jr. played his first game with the Raptors on Friday

It was an odd game (just the third time this season he played more than a handful of minutes & didn't hit a 3, for example) but there were signs of the player he's developed into this season...

(thread begins...)
the first thing I wanted to lock into was what enabled him to be a 40% 3pt shooter & a couple qualities that jump out are his patience and footwork around the 3pt line:
I'm also a big fan of how deliberate he is when it comes to getting ready to receive a pass on a potential Catch&Shoot play. Lots of players are good with this, but he seems to take extra care to be ready early:
Read 13 tweets
Mar 26, 2021
I was fiddling with @bball_ref @Stathead new "Span Finder" and one thing it allowed me to do was put Lowry's impact with the Raptors in context, especially if he stays another season or two...

We'll do it using "Box Plus Minus" which is a one-stat PER/WAR type measure
So, here's the list of top BPM thru 9 seasons with one franchise:

It's filled with (current & future) Hall of Famers & some of the most underrated players of all-time.

Lowry's first 9 with TOR sits 30th, between Ewing's first 9 with NYK & Malone's first 9 with UTA (pretty good)
If he gets to 10+ years with one franchise, and his BPM stays relatively flat... he'll move up a few spots, and again, just the names he'll be with are really impressive.

His neighbourhood will be Malone, Payton, Iverson, Miller, Ewing, Nash, 'Nique, etc...
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(