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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Dec 22, 2022 • 53 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The Dec 21-Dec 27 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, PEI
VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC, SK
HIGH: AB, NS
ELEVATED: MB
MODERATE: North

Link: covid19resources.ca/datadiscussion…
The scores have become more volatile in the last week. We usually see this at start of new waves, when some provinces are still seeing some numbers coming down quite low compared to earlier periods, but there are starting to be spikes in other variables, especially waste water.
We're not sure if there will be a new wave, or if it will happen in all provinces. Some, like PEI and NS, were in a very prolonged very high period recently, so numerous reinfections may be less likely there. Maybe.
Some, like MB and the North are really coming down quite low compared to previous levels.

But...I'm worried this may not be for long, and there could be rapid change over the holidays.
Certainly, we're seeing the largest provinces with the most reliable numbers (because of their size) trending back up. That's ON and QC.
QC is the fastest reporting province and increases there are usually a warning sign for the rest of the country. If you've been watching our COVID Forecast for a while now, you also know that QC has stayed in the elevated-high range for quite a while until recently.
In reality, most provinces now have similar numbers of people infected, barring some late surges in BC, PEI and NS where infection numbers had been lower. There's a competing stew of variants out there, but they don't respect provincial borders.
If you see QC (and Atlantic Canada) going up, assume it's happening where you live too, or will soon.

This is especially important over the next few weeks, as data silence descends on most provinces and we won't have many numbers again until the 2nd week of January.
Back in a second. Just putting the coffee on and feeding the birds, and then I'll post the graphics for each province.
Sorry. Just realized the seeds are low and our horde of evening grosbeaks are out there querying the situation. Should have fed them first!
Also FYI we'll post one more updated forecast this Friday/Saturday that will run until Jan 3. We'll have a bit more data from PHAC then and more waste water data.
Given the volatility of the numbers in some provinces we want to be sure we're not under-forecasting anywhere, since people may use this info to make decisions about holiday gatherings.
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the simplified graphics I'll be sharing:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the longer-form graphics I'll be sharing:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
We'll have a page for all of these up on our site soon-ish, but not before January.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

CANADA

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast, which is p
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

CANADA

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

CANADA

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Newfoun
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Prince
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NOVA SCOTIA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Nova Sc
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NOVA SCOTIA

HIGH

Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NOVA SCOTIA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for New Bru
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

QUEBEC

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Quebec,
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

QUEBEC

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

QUEBEC

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Manitob
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: MODERATE

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Saskatc
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: SEVERE

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ALBERTA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Alberta
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ALBERTA

HIGH

Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: ELEVATED

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ALBERTA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for British
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: SEVERE

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

MODERATE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for the Nor
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

MODERATE

Waste water, infections: LOW
Long COVID estimates: LOW
Hospitalizations, ICU: ELEVATED
Deaths: ELEVATED

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

MODERATE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
(Some) of the team who developed these infographics:

@netgaines
Saira Muzzafar
@Clarice_Wilcox
Sue Street
@Woodsfanatic
@EemaanKaur
@CircaLiz
@BattlingBeaver
@lumle8
@Jeweljam1
Cynthia Levine (artist)
Joan Peterson
@emeraldclover5
@netgaines @Clarice_Wilcox @Woodsfanatic @EemaanKaur @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lumle8 @Jeweljam1 @emeraldclover5 Follow the advice of @CPHO_Canada and @jyduclos .

If you or someone you live with is sick today, PLEASE do NOT attend or host holiday gatherings until 10 days from today.

It's so important. Hospitals need help. They need OUR help.

• • •

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Aug 20
OK folks.

Here are some MPOX questions answered:

🧵
First and foremost:

The protective measures we use against COVID (N95-type masks, handwashing, surface cleaning) will work well against MPOX of any clade, regardless of transmission mode.

If you or a household member develop MPOX (Clade II only so far in Canada), seek medical care (while wearing a mask). If it's MPOX, you and contacts, including household members, will be vaccinated.

Based on what we know about Clade I, vaccination will provide excellent protection. It should for Clade II, but we don't have enough data yet to be sure.
I'm going to link out to posts from @KrutikaKuppalli , who has been providing outstanding real-time, nuanced summaries of emerging MPOX evidence.

I won't repeat some of what she's already posted, or will repeat if I'm guessing some folks might appreciate clarification.
Read 18 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Aug 7
Gathering together to watch the Olympians

-FYI- When you see the Forecast thread posted, that also means that this thread is now available on the C-19 website, pages 6 - 9, for easier reading.
SCENARIO BASICS 
It’s the Summer Olympics! 
I love the Olympics.
Heart-warming stories, riveting competitions, seeing all the varieties of sports, being able to witness the best of physical prowess side by side with their vulnerabilities. Seeing people on the world stage with their strengths, joys, disappointments, grit, and humanity.
Read 44 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Aug 6
Canadian COVID Forecast

Aug 3-16, 2024

SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, North, NS, SK

VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC

HIGH: AB, MB, PEI

MODERATE: none

About 1 in 54 people in Canada is CURRENTLY infected. Image
It's me doing the Forecast thread this week, not @BattlingBeaver who does a much better job than me, but is on a well-deserved vacation.

I'll do an abbreviated thread, since I'm a bit time-strapped. Sorry I didn't get it out this weekend!
@BattlingBeaver WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

Hospitalizations and deaths per infection continue increasing.

Please take extra caution while waiting for a fall vaccine dose. Variants currently circulating are good at evading vaccine/infection protection. Image
Read 31 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Jul 19
Summertime Suite of Scenarios - Part 2

SCENARIO BASICS

Two more Summertime Scenarios.

This is a long thread with lots of information.

A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Summertime Suite of Scenarios Image: colourful graphic of dense group of people figures Text in a blue box on top left: Big Crowds! Activities in packed places •Carnival Midway •Indoors Pavilion Partying Part 2 of 2 Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: silhouette of 5 dancing people in front of red background and bright yellow sun Text in a blue box on bottom left: Activity Risks Summertime gatherings can be high risk. Your N95 mask keeps you kickin’ with 10x l...
A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Carnival Midway Image: Carnival rides - two huge rides - the upside down umbrellas with people hanging off the ropes, and an enormous ferris wheel. Text in first blue box below: If you want to go, mask up! In line? On rides? Seeing the sights? Mask Up Text in second blue box: Looking to get food? Look for open spaces away from crowds to enjoy it. Text to the right of the boxes: You’ll be safer with a mask Lower left image: Carnival grounds showing crowds of people, colourful vendor kiosks, rides in the backgroun...
A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Indoors Pavilion Partying Image: Inside the Pavilion, overhead crowd view of hundreds of people at the large venue, looking at the stage in front. Text in first blue box below: Dancing, eating, concerts, singing, and lotsa booze. This is NOT safe. Text in second blue box: Partying outside, in less crowded places is much more safe. Text to the right of the boxes: There are safer ways to have fun! Lower left image: Different inside view of Pavilion, seeing the arched high roof, large tree filling the space and th...
Illustrations, data cards and story will be posted on the C-19 Resources Canada website next week for those that like to have it for reference later.
We’re heading to the carnival Midway and then, later on, having it large at an Indoors Pavilion party venue

How risky is it to go to these types of places?
Read 48 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Jul 7
Canadian COVID Forecast Jul 6-19, 2024

CANADA

VERY HIGH (no change)

About 1 in every 73 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~10X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~17X higher
-Deaths ~10X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for July 6-19, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 12.2 About 1 of every 73 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 338,000-439,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.9X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 5.2X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.9X higher Deaths: HIGH; 9.7X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-type mas...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Jul 6-19, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH (no change)

About 1 in every 81 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~7X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~10X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for July 6-19, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 11.0 About 1 of every 81 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,900-5,100 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 6.9X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 4.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.2X higher Deaths: HIGH; 10.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Jul 5
Summertime Suite of Scenarios - Part 1

At the Calgary Stampede, two traditions are going strong

– Pancake Breakfasts and Big Barbecue Lunches.

But … how risky is it to go? A blue-bordered image by COVID-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Summertime Suite of Scenarios Image: colourful graphic of dense group of people figures Text in a blue box on top left: Big Crowds! Activities in packed places •Pancake Breakfasts, standing in long lines. •Big BBQ Lunch, seated at long tables. Part 1 of 2 Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Image bottom left: Galloping horses across a dusty field Text in a blue box on bottom left: Activity Risks Calgary Stampede week activities can be high risk. Your N95 mask keeps you galloping...
You have to start the day with pancakes, of course.

That means lining up, allotting about a half hour to move up, tantalising aromas of the cooking food entertaining you, till you get to have your own plate full.
After a successful venture obtaining delicious food, could be pancakes or a pile of barbecued ribs, burgers and sides, our second scenario looks at sitting down and enjoying it.
Read 38 tweets

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