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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Dec 22, 2022 • 53 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
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The Dec 21-Dec 27 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, PEI
VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC, SK
HIGH: AB, NS
ELEVATED: MB
MODERATE: North

Link: covid19resources.ca/datadiscussion…
The scores have become more volatile in the last week. We usually see this at start of new waves, when some provinces are still seeing some numbers coming down quite low compared to earlier periods, but there are starting to be spikes in other variables, especially waste water.
We're not sure if there will be a new wave, or if it will happen in all provinces. Some, like PEI and NS, were in a very prolonged very high period recently, so numerous reinfections may be less likely there. Maybe.
Some, like MB and the North are really coming down quite low compared to previous levels.

But...I'm worried this may not be for long, and there could be rapid change over the holidays.
Certainly, we're seeing the largest provinces with the most reliable numbers (because of their size) trending back up. That's ON and QC.
QC is the fastest reporting province and increases there are usually a warning sign for the rest of the country. If you've been watching our COVID Forecast for a while now, you also know that QC has stayed in the elevated-high range for quite a while until recently.
In reality, most provinces now have similar numbers of people infected, barring some late surges in BC, PEI and NS where infection numbers had been lower. There's a competing stew of variants out there, but they don't respect provincial borders.
If you see QC (and Atlantic Canada) going up, assume it's happening where you live too, or will soon.

This is especially important over the next few weeks, as data silence descends on most provinces and we won't have many numbers again until the 2nd week of January.
Back in a second. Just putting the coffee on and feeding the birds, and then I'll post the graphics for each province.
Sorry. Just realized the seeds are low and our horde of evening grosbeaks are out there querying the situation. Should have fed them first!
Also FYI we'll post one more updated forecast this Friday/Saturday that will run until Jan 3. We'll have a bit more data from PHAC then and more waste water data.
Given the volatility of the numbers in some provinces we want to be sure we're not under-forecasting anywhere, since people may use this info to make decisions about holiday gatherings.
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the simplified graphics I'll be sharing:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the longer-form graphics I'll be sharing:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
We'll have a page for all of these up on our site soon-ish, but not before January.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

CANADA

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast, which is p
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

CANADA

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

CANADA

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Newfoun
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Prince
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NOVA SCOTIA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Nova Sc
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NOVA SCOTIA

HIGH

Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NOVA SCOTIA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for New Bru
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

QUEBEC

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Quebec,
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

QUEBEC

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

QUEBEC

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ONTARIO

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Manitob
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: MODERATE

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

MANITOBA

ELEVATED

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Saskatc
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: SEVERE

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

SASKATCHEWAN

VERY HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ALBERTA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for Alberta
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ALBERTA

HIGH

Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: ELEVATED

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

ALBERTA

HIGH

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for British
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE

Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: SEVERE

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

MODERATE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors. This image describes the Canadian Covid Forecast for the Nor
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

MODERATE

Waste water, infections: LOW
Long COVID estimates: LOW
Hospitalizations, ICU: ELEVATED
Deaths: ELEVATED

Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

MODERATE

If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.

And #WearAMask indoors.
(Some) of the team who developed these infographics:

@netgaines
Saira Muzzafar
@Clarice_Wilcox
Sue Street
@Woodsfanatic
@EemaanKaur
@CircaLiz
@BattlingBeaver
@lumle8
@Jeweljam1
Cynthia Levine (artist)
Joan Peterson
@emeraldclover5
@netgaines @Clarice_Wilcox @Woodsfanatic @EemaanKaur @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lumle8 @Jeweljam1 @emeraldclover5 Follow the advice of @CPHO_Canada and @jyduclos .

If you or someone you live with is sick today, PLEASE do NOT attend or host holiday gatherings until 10 days from today.

It's so important. Hospitals need help. They need OUR help.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 22
Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 21, 2024-Jan 3, 2025

CANADA

VERY HIGH (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 498,200-511,200

About 1 in every 82 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~9X higher
-Long COVID ~9X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~9X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.1 About 1 of every 82 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 498,200-511,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.3X higher Long COVID estimate: HIGH; 8.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH; 11.7X higher Deaths: HIGH; 9.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Dec 21, 2024-Jan 3, 2025

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

MODERATE (decreasing)

Estimated infections this week: 3,700-3,8500

About 1 in every 143 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~4X higher
-Long COVID ~5X higher
-Hospitalizations ~5X higher
-Deaths ~5X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE (decreasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.9 About 1 of every 143 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 3,700-3,850 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher Long COVID estimate: MODERATE; 5.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH; 5.3X higher Deaths: MODERATE; 4.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every ...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 19
#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir #CovidCautious
Holiday Dance Night
Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast

The full thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading.

lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…Image
Note: Forecast data will be posted on the weekend, those pages on the website have not been updated.
Holiday Dance Night
Nanny and her diabetic teen granddaughter are a high risk household. Because they are vulnerable, they have to miss inside family gatherings much more than they’d like in order to protect themselves . They both would love to celebrate with the rest of their friends and family on New Years Eve at the community Holiday Dance Night.

But is there any way to make it safe enough for them?
Many of us know, live with, or are vulnerable. We have a lot of people in our communities who are immune compromised, immune suppressed, or have long COVID. People who have to be extra careful about infections. It’s a lonely journey to keep safe these days, often having to stay away from events with crowds.
So, just how risky are those community gatherings?

There’s a Dance Night at the high school gym coming up. About 60 folks dancing to tunes for a couple hours, it would be so much fun to join in.
Read 11 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 6
The Data Card, “Family Holiday Dinner - Before”, shows how wise it is for everyone to mask while visiting inside.

We looked at a group of 10 people, you’re one of them, gathering for a 3 hour visit. People are chatting, but it’s mostly a quiet group enjoying each other’s company.

The scenario uses an average size dining room, 16 x 32. The airflow is well mixed among this and the other rooms and the outside doors are closed.

What can you do?We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
What can you do? Open the windows.

What can you do?

You can make your event even more safe by providing rapid tests beforehand and N95 masks as people arrive. This lets everyone know that you care about their health.

What else can you do?

Set up an Outside Food Zone. ™

If the weather is, ahem, wintery, and you have the resources, get a fire pit going.

Explore other ways to warm the space, maybe candles, those amazing patio heaters, or a tether ball to kick to warm everyone up. Don’t forget to provide gloves and blankets too.

Create an inviting space for people to bring their food out, unmask, safely eat at a distance from the crowd. When they’re ready they can join the folks inside again knowing that they are helping to keep everyone safe.

The “Family Holiday Dinner - Before” Card shows the maximum risk people that take on. We’re using the safest estimate for one-off events that often have visitors from away, may include a super spreader, and carry higher potential risks.
Your most vulnerable people will want to use these estimates since, for us, it’s best to assess risk by assuming the worst. We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
Read 8 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~28X higher
-Hospitalizations ~29X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 10,600-11,300

About 1 in every 64 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~17X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 17.5 About 1 of every 64 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 10,600 - 11,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines e...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 190 200-1 266 300

Environ 1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X 🔺
-COVID longue ~28X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X 🔺
-Décès ~26X 🔺This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 10 600-11 300

Environ 1 personne sur 64 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~17X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~15X🔺Image
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 27.3 - SEVERE Alberta: 30.0 - SEVERE British Columbia: 16.1- SEVERE Manitoba: 30.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 28.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 17.5 -SEVERE North: 25.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 30.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 27.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 26.2 - SEVERE Quebec: 27.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 30.0 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 2%/week (-5% to +8%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 43 people are currently infected (~175,000 infections/day).

A new surge/wave has started, later than usual for this time of year in many provinces. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
Read 13 tweets

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