The scores have become more volatile in the last week. We usually see this at start of new waves, when some provinces are still seeing some numbers coming down quite low compared to earlier periods, but there are starting to be spikes in other variables, especially waste water.
We're not sure if there will be a new wave, or if it will happen in all provinces. Some, like PEI and NS, were in a very prolonged very high period recently, so numerous reinfections may be less likely there. Maybe.
Some, like MB and the North are really coming down quite low compared to previous levels.
But...I'm worried this may not be for long, and there could be rapid change over the holidays.
Certainly, we're seeing the largest provinces with the most reliable numbers (because of their size) trending back up. That's ON and QC.
QC is the fastest reporting province and increases there are usually a warning sign for the rest of the country. If you've been watching our COVID Forecast for a while now, you also know that QC has stayed in the elevated-high range for quite a while until recently.
In reality, most provinces now have similar numbers of people infected, barring some late surges in BC, PEI and NS where infection numbers had been lower. There's a competing stew of variants out there, but they don't respect provincial borders.
If you see QC (and Atlantic Canada) going up, assume it's happening where you live too, or will soon.
This is especially important over the next few weeks, as data silence descends on most provinces and we won't have many numbers again until the 2nd week of January.
Back in a second. Just putting the coffee on and feeding the birds, and then I'll post the graphics for each province.
Sorry. Just realized the seeds are low and our horde of evening grosbeaks are out there querying the situation. Should have fed them first!
Also FYI we'll post one more updated forecast this Friday/Saturday that will run until Jan 3. We'll have a bit more data from PHAC then and more waste water data.
Given the volatility of the numbers in some provinces we want to be sure we're not under-forecasting anywhere, since people may use this info to make decisions about holiday gatherings.
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the simplified graphics I'll be sharing:
The protective measures we use against COVID (N95-type masks, handwashing, surface cleaning) will work well against MPOX of any clade, regardless of transmission mode.
If you or a household member develop MPOX (Clade II only so far in Canada), seek medical care (while wearing a mask). If it's MPOX, you and contacts, including household members, will be vaccinated.
Based on what we know about Clade I, vaccination will provide excellent protection. It should for Clade II, but we don't have enough data yet to be sure.
I'm going to link out to posts from @KrutikaKuppalli , who has been providing outstanding real-time, nuanced summaries of emerging MPOX evidence.
I won't repeat some of what she's already posted, or will repeat if I'm guessing some folks might appreciate clarification.
-FYI- When you see the Forecast thread posted, that also means that this thread is now available on the C-19 website, pages 6 - 9, for easier reading.
SCENARIO BASICS
It’s the Summer Olympics!
I love the Olympics.
Heart-warming stories, riveting competitions, seeing all the varieties of sports, being able to witness the best of physical prowess side by side with their vulnerabilities. Seeing people on the world stage with their strengths, joys, disappointments, grit, and humanity.
At the Calgary Stampede, two traditions are going strong
– Pancake Breakfasts and Big Barbecue Lunches.
But … how risky is it to go?
You have to start the day with pancakes, of course.
That means lining up, allotting about a half hour to move up, tantalising aromas of the cooking food entertaining you, till you get to have your own plate full.
After a successful venture obtaining delicious food, could be pancakes or a pile of barbecued ribs, burgers and sides, our second scenario looks at sitting down and enjoying it.