The Dec 21-Dec 27 Canadian COVID Forecast and associated data are now live.
SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, PEI
VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC, SK
HIGH: AB, NS
ELEVATED: MB
MODERATE: North
Link: covid19resources.ca/datadiscussion…
SEVERE: BC, NB, NL, PEI
VERY HIGH: CAN, ON, QC, SK
HIGH: AB, NS
ELEVATED: MB
MODERATE: North
Link: covid19resources.ca/datadiscussion…
The scores have become more volatile in the last week. We usually see this at start of new waves, when some provinces are still seeing some numbers coming down quite low compared to earlier periods, but there are starting to be spikes in other variables, especially waste water.
We're not sure if there will be a new wave, or if it will happen in all provinces. Some, like PEI and NS, were in a very prolonged very high period recently, so numerous reinfections may be less likely there. Maybe.
Some, like MB and the North are really coming down quite low compared to previous levels.
But...I'm worried this may not be for long, and there could be rapid change over the holidays.
But...I'm worried this may not be for long, and there could be rapid change over the holidays.
Certainly, we're seeing the largest provinces with the most reliable numbers (because of their size) trending back up. That's ON and QC.
QC is the fastest reporting province and increases there are usually a warning sign for the rest of the country. If you've been watching our COVID Forecast for a while now, you also know that QC has stayed in the elevated-high range for quite a while until recently.
In reality, most provinces now have similar numbers of people infected, barring some late surges in BC, PEI and NS where infection numbers had been lower. There's a competing stew of variants out there, but they don't respect provincial borders.
If you see QC (and Atlantic Canada) going up, assume it's happening where you live too, or will soon.
This is especially important over the next few weeks, as data silence descends on most provinces and we won't have many numbers again until the 2nd week of January.
This is especially important over the next few weeks, as data silence descends on most provinces and we won't have many numbers again until the 2nd week of January.
Back in a second. Just putting the coffee on and feeding the birds, and then I'll post the graphics for each province.
Sorry. Just realized the seeds are low and our horde of evening grosbeaks are out there querying the situation. Should have fed them first!
Also FYI we'll post one more updated forecast this Friday/Saturday that will run until Jan 3. We'll have a bit more data from PHAC then and more waste water data.
Given the volatility of the numbers in some provinces we want to be sure we're not under-forecasting anywhere, since people may use this info to make decisions about holiday gatherings.
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the simplified graphics I'll be sharing:
drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
View-only link to folder where you can find png files for the longer-form graphics I'll be sharing:
drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
drive.google.com/drive/folders/…
We'll have a page for all of these up on our site soon-ish, but not before January.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
CANADA
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
CANADA
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
CANADA
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
CANADA
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
CANADA
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
CANADA
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NOVA SCOTIA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NOVA SCOTIA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NOVA SCOTIA
HIGH
Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
NOVA SCOTIA
HIGH
Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NOVA SCOTIA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NOVA SCOTIA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
NEW BRUNSWICK
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
QUEBEC
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
QUEBEC
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
QUEBEC
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
QUEBEC
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: SEVERE
Long COVID estimates: SEVERE
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
QUEBEC
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
QUEBEC
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH
Deaths: VERY HIGH
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
ONTARIO
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: MODERATE
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
Waste water, infections: ELEVATED
Long COVID estimates: ELEVATED
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: MODERATE
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
MANITOBA
ELEVATED
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: SEVERE
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: SEVERE
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
SASKATCHEWAN
VERY HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
ALBERTA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
ALBERTA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
ALBERTA
HIGH
Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: ELEVATED
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
ALBERTA
HIGH
Waste water, infections: HIGH
Long COVID estimates: HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: HIGH
Deaths: ELEVATED
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
ALBERTA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
ALBERTA
HIGH
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: SEVERE
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE
Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH
Long COVID estimates: VERY HIGH
Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE
Deaths: SEVERE
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
SEVERE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
MODERATE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
MODERATE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
MODERATE
Waste water, infections: LOW
Long COVID estimates: LOW
Hospitalizations, ICU: ELEVATED
Deaths: ELEVATED
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
MODERATE
Waste water, infections: LOW
Long COVID estimates: LOW
Hospitalizations, ICU: ELEVATED
Deaths: ELEVATED
Do NOT attend social gatherings until at least Jan 2 if you or someone you live with is sick TODAY.
Canadian COVID Forecast: Dec 21-27
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
MODERATE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON
MODERATE
If you or someone you live with are sick today, please do NOT attend or host social gatherings for the NEXT TEN DAYS. That's January 2nd, 2023.
And #WearAMask indoors.
(Some) of the team who developed these infographics:
@netgaines
Saira Muzzafar
@Clarice_Wilcox
Sue Street
@Woodsfanatic
@EemaanKaur
@CircaLiz
@BattlingBeaver
@lumle8
@Jeweljam1
Cynthia Levine (artist)
Joan Peterson
@emeraldclover5
@netgaines
Saira Muzzafar
@Clarice_Wilcox
Sue Street
@Woodsfanatic
@EemaanKaur
@CircaLiz
@BattlingBeaver
@lumle8
@Jeweljam1
Cynthia Levine (artist)
Joan Peterson
@emeraldclover5
@netgaines @Clarice_Wilcox @Woodsfanatic @EemaanKaur @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lumle8 @Jeweljam1 @emeraldclover5 Follow the advice of @CPHO_Canada and @jyduclos .
If you or someone you live with is sick today, PLEASE do NOT attend or host holiday gatherings until 10 days from today.
It's so important. Hospitals need help. They need OUR help.
If you or someone you live with is sick today, PLEASE do NOT attend or host holiday gatherings until 10 days from today.
It's so important. Hospitals need help. They need OUR help.
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