Thread by @aidan_courtney

An annual thread on Brexit

TLDR: Brexit is similar to US Prohibition (which lasted 13 years). Brexit won’t end soon but won’t last forever, so take a 10+ year view.

Tweeting on it once a year gives me time to think. This is #slowtwitter 1/19

To recap, last year I tweeted about some of the similarities between Brexit and US Prohibition. But there is much more to say. If the similarity holds, I still have 10 years or more to make the comments, hence an annual thread. 2/19

https://twitter.com/aidan_courtney/status/1474328700170608640?s=20&t=3mKWJ02krCtCzqedmep21A

Comparing Prohibition and Brexit throws up interesting combinations of individuals: Wheeler/Farage; Harding/Johnson; Davis/Starmer

The last combo suggests that we should not infer too much from politicians currently ignoring Brexit, the Democrats did the same in the 1920s 3/19

Wheeler/Farage

Although never elected to office as head of the Anti-Saloon League (1903-27) Wayne Wheeler was one of the most powerful political operators of his time. His support for dry candidates was often decisive in their election & led to a dry majority in Congress 4/19

But his power declined once the campaign succeeded.

By 1926, his refusal to compromise despite the overwhelming failure of Prohibition and the damage it was doing American society hugely undermined his influence. 5/19

Nigel Farage’s role in UK politics over the last decade has been remarkably similar. But now that Brexit has been delivered will his influence decline like Wheeler's? Or will the campaign for a “true Brexit” continue and become ever more intolerant of compromise? 6/19

Harding/Johnson

Warren G Harding is generally considered one of the worst US presidents of all time. He was a former newspaper editor whose success was attributed by one biographer to “good looks, affability, enthusiasm, and persistence”. 7/19

Harding died in office, but although his presidency was short (Mar21 to Aug 23), he managed to become mired in numerous corruption scandals. One contemporary said of him “Harding was not a bad man, he was just a slob”. 8/19

Comparison with Boris Johnson – a strong contender for Britain’s worst prime minister – reminds us that poor quality political leaders will result in poor quality government. 9/19

Davis/Starmer

It took 103 rounds of voting for 1924 Democratic convention to select John Davis as its presidential nominee. A compromise candidate who had been a successful lawyer and ambassador to the UK, Davis was no match for Calvin Coolidge who won by a landslide. 10/19

While his defeat meant he became a footnote in history rather than the 31st US President, Davis’ policy on Prohibition provides a useful context to judge the current Labour policy on Brexit.

The 1924 Democratic Party Platform policy would fit in a single tweet. 11/19

“The republican administration has failed to enforce the prohibition law; is guilty of trafficking in liquor permits, and has become the protector of violators of this law.

The democratic party pledges itself to respect and enforce the constitution and all laws.” 12/19

In other words “Make Prohibition work”.

In fact this was a high watermark - the 1928 Party Platform did not mention Prohibition at all. Yet despite somewhat limited political engagement, opposition to Prohibition grew in the late 1920s and became overwhelming by 1932. 13/19

Starmer, like Davis, is a successful lawyer/politician who is currently unwilling to propose a reversal of the most important policy failure of his time, Brexit, for fear of losing votes in the forthcoming general election. 14/19

Like the Democrats a century ago, Labour criticises the implementation of Brexit but then proposes to “make Brexit work”. This is a non-policy, the purpose of which is to ensure that Brexit is not at the centre of political debate. 15/19

While this approach may dismay many ardent opponents of Brexit, the life-cycle of Prohibition shows that opposition policy in ’22 or ’24 is not that important and likely to be jettisoned if/when the electoral maths supports doing so. 16/19

The question which should be asked continually is

"Is the UK better off outside the EU, its Customs Union and Single Market?"

If the answer is “no” then Brexit will not be sustained long term.

Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead. 17/19

There are many more similarities between Prohibition and Brexit than just the process by which each came about and the personalities of some key figures. I will write more next December and the year after. #slowtwitter. 18/19

Finally, I would like to wish all 555 of my followers a peaceful Christmas and a safe 2023.

End 19/19