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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Dec 24, 2022 • 35 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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Because it's being gamed....

$svix/ $uvix

news.google.com/articles/CBMiU…
My calculated vix (red) vs hyg(yellow,inverted) vs usdcad (light blue) vs the vix....

There is some serious math and currency games to keep vix low
plopping on oil (white)
theres a correlation btw vix and price of oil
And adding dxy - theres a correlation between the vix and dxy
Adding usdeur and svix
gaming oil bleeds thru to the vix crushing volatility.

If there becomes a time oil can no longer be suppressed, we might experience a volmaggeden event.
More evidence

SQQQ is 3x inverted q's (aka short 3x)
And $SQQQ vs $TQQQ
My gut tells me its a combination of swaps with EU & Canada, gaming the vix directly w/ $UVIX and $SVIX thats held back an epic crash of US stonks....

As EU strengthens, USD weakens
The red line here is my calculation for Fed currency games

Formula is
(1/(BATS:UUP*3.3-BATS:SVIX*5)*10+0.5)/100

So who is gaming the vix?

The fed.

Clear as day.
For those of you arguing "you used the definition in the definition" (yes it includes SVIX)

Here is same chart, just UUP (usd) as yellow.

Behold the correlation....
And this is why backtests are total bullshit.

Regimes change - esp in extraordinary times.

If you dont change as the regime change you become roadkill.
The ONLY way this regime is broken - is if $OIL breaks thru - aka - supply disruption that cannot be countered by the SPR... or a material blackswan event overseas (aka EU cannot raise interest rates anymore)
Here again is my formula for the vix (deep red)
it tracked the vix very well....but something changed....
Since sept in nearly exactly tracks HYG
and the vix (purple) is tracking OPPOSITE....
And another perspective
This red line (1) represents my interest rate power function.

As Bonds++, the longer the duration, the higher the impact to the currency....except...this is not happening...prolly b/c of #swap's

TVC:US30Y*5+TVC:US20Y*4+TVC:US10Y*3+TVC:US05Y*2+TVC:US01Y
The markets are broken and likely?

By design...
and?
By the fed.

#GoldenAgeOfFraud

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_ma…
And what i see happening - as Canada raises interest rates, i see vix following right along

Regime change in that box.

$Vix hits single digits?

(note inverted scales)
The oscillations in $SVIX are getting bigger and bigger
and jPan's fingers look like they are all over it...
And it almost looks like the $vix itself has become a currency.....

Notice its movements relative to other currencies.
Now im going to add a mind blower - i literally been noodling on this all year (if you followed me, im sorry - this is quite a puzzle im trying to solve)

A while back, i noticed this...
volatilityshares.com/wp-content/upl…

You will also note i follow swaps very closely.
There were at least 4 major swaps friday morning

My gut is now telling me UVIX/SVIX are conduits to enable these swaps - aka - foreign CB's use UVIX/SVIX to rebalance interest rates - it is THE mechanism to move currencies and rebalance DXY
Here $DXY is in purple
And here adding $SVIX and $UVIX
Remember UVIX is the inverse long term vix contracts
and SVIX is the 1:1 short contracts
And stepping back - US wealth is concentrated in STONKS.

Which means, Fed wants to balance and use that giant pile of $$ in currency markets.

These vix tools allow the fed to leverage/hedge US stonks vs global currencies/global bond markets.

What do you think?
more - now look at currencies vs bonds.

How would they do this relative to ea other?
I looked at fed and treasury holdings - they aint got shit other currencies on their books.

So how else would they keep these all in sync?

SVIX / UVIX.

Note the date....
more analysis
and this is so important - how do you stop vol? by making goddam sure that every opposing country moves their interest rates RELATIVE to each other so there is no sudden shock to system where there is a massive change in rates.

Read this 100x to make sure you understand that.
and if you want heavy math, go here
federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/f…
So why now? Hasnt SVIX and UVIX been out there forever?

well, no.
globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
reuters.com/article/usa-et…
My suspicion is that those vol tools that blew up were also CB sponsored;So deep diving Feb 2018 volmageddon (1) event- what really happened?
jPan (the worlds bond police) sold both US and EU bonds (2,3) to try to stop oil from spiking (4).
The result?

DXY xploded
DXY++ = VOL++
So, after all this... step back...


Who?

The vix can be gamed on any side if the participant is big enuf.

Is this a CB hedge? MM hedge?

You look 360 degrees at this.... wtf is going on?

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Nov 6
Last night was interesting - the planners used the cover of trumps election to rebalance global currencies.

Here is the vix.
🧵👇 Image
Heres foreign oil producing currencies - on this chart purple line going up?
It means foreign currencies got STRONGER.

But heres the deal - ya, they produce oil, but thats not the only trade that goes on.

And the g7 planners need to keep some level of parity to otther currenciesImage
Thats the Euro-pee; notice that move

They weakened the F out of their currency.

For the Euro-P to weaken like this one of 2 things need to happen:
1) Someone bought a f tone of euro-pee debt
or
2) They printed a F ton of money Image
Read 12 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Nov 2
Another currency thread.

Say you own some sparkly.

If you go to the local market the sparkly has a known value.

Say the local value is 100 schmeckels.
🧵👇
But one day you decide to travel to country Zenoblob.

In Zenoblob that sparkly is HIGHLY desired.

You can break of just a tiny bit of the sparkly and with it you can exchange that tiny bit for the best restaurants, the best transportation, the best hotels and still have a lot of sparkly left over.
You go home thinking you are a genius so you start looking for more sparkly.

You find another chunk of sparkly and this year you try the same thing again.
Read 62 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Oct 8
These are all g7 currencies.
The planners decided to weaken vs the price of oil.

Read another way? It means USD got stronger.

So EUR, JPY, CHF all got weaker vs USD.....

👇🧵 Image
at the same time here they are vs Saud.
They are all weaker vs the Saudi oil currency too...

So weaker vs USD, and weaker vs Saudi Image
Thick purple line - they all sold US debt. Image
Read 15 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Sep 25
Lets talk about sdr's

(special drawing rights)

As of July 31, 2024, U.S. SDR Holdings were SDR 126.8 billion.

👇🧵 home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
In July 2024, Treasury, through the ESF, purchased
SDR 400 million from Ukraine in exchange for approximately $530 million.

Note that this wasnt reported in any newspaper.
home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
The treasury sold 10B of SDR's to the FED.
The fed is legally obligated to buy them.
The fed gets 10B in SDR's ...the treasury gets 10B in USD

The 10B is immediately usable by the treasury for any govt spending. No congressional approval needed. Image
Read 44 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Sep 17
This is gold.
It is inverted.
The lower the line goes the higher the price of gold in USD.

When it takes more USD to buy gold?
Thats a measure of inflation.

2nd chart zoomed out.
👇🧵
Image
Image
Here is USDJPY (the jPanesa) and US long bond yields.

Notice the striking correlations

On this chart - when the blue line goes up, bond yields go down. When the blue line goes down, bond yields go up.

The higher the blue line goes on this chart? The lower the bond yield. Lower bond yield = new car loans go down, credit card interest rates go down, etc.

Blue line going up = FRENCH TICKER

Its *STIMULATIVE*

Stonk loves when blue line go up.

because jPanesa own so much US debt, they can move bonds with ease. ESP so because the jAnet isnt selling as much long bond - this makes jPans job easier.Image
They do all of this to control currency - in green.
When the green line goes up the USD gets weaker.
A weaker USD means US exports get cheaper.

Your groceries get more expensi.
Your overseas vacation gets more expensi.
Anything US imports gets more expensi. Image
Read 25 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Sep 13
On September 11th there was a major economic event.
Core inflation went UP.

Normally this would mean that bond yields need to rise to get inflation to come down.

The same day the stonk market rallied over 1000pts.

Lets dig in and see what actually happened.
👇🧵 Image
The prior evening to this major econ metric, jpan lowered US long bond yields. Notice the tight correlation to USDJPY.

jPanesa is just the eastern branch of the federal reserve. Image
On the economic event - jPan did a hard swap (see top link of my profile page - it will take you to a list of threads - click "swaps") Image
Read 21 tweets

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