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Chris Black

@DownToBlack

Dec 24

https://twitter.com/DownToBlack/status/1578926015174569984

One reason the Jays season ended prematurely: Outfield D.

Raimel Tapia didn't make 2 plays that were at least possible to make & the Springer-Bichette collision was on a ball that should have been caught. Simple as that.

But this was a microcosm of a season-long issue.

https://twitter.com/DownToBlack/status/1578926015174569984

Saying goodbye to Teo, Lourdes & Tapia isn't about highlight grabs. It's about 50/50 balls, plays most of us honestly just forget. This was Toronto's weakness in the outfield. Too many catchable balls dropping.

Teoscar Hernandez: -3 Outs Above Average, jump -0.3 ft vs MLB avg

Lourdes Gurriel: -5 OAA, jump -1.4 ft vs MLB avg

Read 8 tweets

Chris Black

@DownToBlack

Dec 21

Last #BlueJays ⚾️🧵 of 2022 is on one of the biggest questions heading into 2023 & beyond: Bo Bichette's defence.

Let's start here: Did you know Bichette's Def. Runs Saved was +7 from 2019-21? 12th among MLB SS in that time.

But, Outs Above Average has never been a huge fan of Bichette's D & his DRS plummeted in 2022 to -16, which ranked 238th out of 243 MLB players to 500+ innings of defensive play.

Let's establish this: He is going to want to stay at SS. It makes the best sense for him for his career & future free agency.

It also makes sense for the Jays to see if he can figure it out because the bat is historically good.

Check out the comp to age-24 with Tulo & Nomar.

Read 13 tweets

Chris Black

@DownToBlack

Aug 13

A brief interruption from tennis for a short #NextLevel #BlueJays 🇨🇦⚾️🧵 on Jose Berrios.

It's about what happens when something stops working, how you try to adjust & a prediction about the off-season.

Let's start here: His 4-seam pitch chart from last night....

Easy to look at chart above & say, "he couldn't locate his 4-seamer" but when you look at tape, that's not where I land.

I see someone who has told himself he almost will never throw a 4-seamer over the plate (of note, of the 3 he threw over the plate: bunt single, HR, single)

It makes sense. 4-seam has been issue all year & the team has been trying to work around it (w/ some success)

They moved him on mound, threw more sinkers, threw more breakers & here's 2 undisputable truths: He's throwing it less often & less in the zone than he ever has before

Read 12 tweets

Chris Black

@DownToBlack

Mar 27, 2021

Gary Trent Jr. played his first game with the Raptors on Friday

It was an odd game (just the third time this season he played more than a handful of minutes & didn't hit a 3, for example) but there were signs of the player he's developed into this season...

(thread begins...)

the first thing I wanted to lock into was what enabled him to be a 40% 3pt shooter & a couple qualities that jump out are his patience and footwork around the 3pt line:

I'm also a big fan of how deliberate he is when it comes to getting ready to receive a pass on a potential Catch&Shoot play. Lots of players are good with this, but he seems to take extra care to be ready early:

Read 13 tweets

Chris Black

@DownToBlack

Mar 26, 2021

@bball_ref

I was fiddling with @bball_ref @Stathead new "Span Finder" and one thing it allowed me to do was put Lowry's impact with the Raptors in context, especially if he stays another season or two...

We'll do it using "Box Plus Minus" which is a one-stat PER/WAR type measure

So, here's the list of top BPM thru 9 seasons with one franchise:

It's filled with (current & future) Hall of Famers & some of the most underrated players of all-time.

Lowry's first 9 with TOR sits 30th, between Ewing's first 9 with NYK & Malone's first 9 with UTA (pretty good)

If he gets to 10+ years with one franchise, and his BPM stays relatively flat... he'll move up a few spots, and again, just the names he'll be with are really impressive.

His neighbourhood will be Malone, Payton, Iverson, Miller, Ewing, Nash, 'Nique, etc...

Read 4 tweets