Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOpsVol.land. Small Vanna magnets from 3820 - 3840. Repellent @ 3750 & 3900. Positive Gamma resistance from 3820 - 3840. Small support @ 3775. Negative Gamma will accelerate if broken through.
Let's do the same for $SPY using Vol.land Light Vanna repellents @ 370 & 385. Small vanna magnets @ 384 & 388. Gamma support @ 377, resist @ 384. Negative Gamma accelerants in between.
Let's add in data driven insights on $SPY from @Tradytics. 1-day delta correlations show 29% chance of a positive move up to 0.6%. 3-day shows 25% chance of up to 1.2%. Dealer delta momentum still negative (-0.363).
@Tradytics $SPY Dark Pools help paint the the picture further. Volume correlations seem to be positive, be mindful of all the resistance above. Block trade sentiment has shifted to be more bullish (but relatively close).
Now, take a look at @Tradytics 5-day market net flow and delta positioning across the market. Puts continue to accumulate, Market wide deltas shifted down as well. Put positions building a month or two out. However, flow divergences also showing mostly bullish.
We need to make sure we keep all the upcoming macro number releases in mind as they are the big fundamental drivers of the market. We had jobless claims this morning, with PMI tomorrow. Jobless claims has created a bullish move. Currently holding longs on $NQ.
With the massive put build up we've been experiencing, I've been waiting for the catalyst to create one of those infamous bull rallies we see in bear markets. We *may* be at the breaking point now. The key factor is IV dropping on contracts across the market.
Keep an eye on the big holdings today such as $TSLA, $AAPL, $MSFT, etc. Names like $META and $NVDA have also been getting hammered. Downside still favorable but I'm cautiously awaiting the IV drop that can fuel the temporary rally. We'll know more as the day progresses.
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Lets start with #Vanna on $SPX & $SPY. $SPX cumulative Vanna picture still neutral in this range with positive vanna favoring downside and negative vanna hurting moves higher. $SPY is similar but with more positive vanna favoring downside should $VIX/IV continue to rise.
Aggregate #Charm up next on $SPX & $SPY. $SPX is now much more inline with $SPY with positive charm exceeding negative charm. This means dealer selling will take place as time passes on these contracts.
Another condensed post tonight combining what I believe to be the most useful market data to help prepare for tomorrow. Show thread to see it all! 🧵👇
Lets start with #Vanna on $SPX & $SPY. $SPX cumulative Vanna picture still neutral in this range with positive vanna favoring downside and negative vanna hindering moves higher. $SPY is similar but with more positive vanna favoring downside should $VIX/IV rise.
Aggregate #Charm up next on $SPX & $SPY. $SPX charm is neutral as well, but slightly more negative which is slightly bullish. However, $SPY is still positive which favors downside. Combining the two has dealers doing slightly more selling as time decays.
Someone asked on YouTube if I could review $TSLA data going into the week, so here it goes. Hope others who trade it regularly find it helpful.
$TSLA #Vanna data shows cumulative Vanna positive until 185, at which point it goes negative and would repel moves lower as IV rises with price dropping (within the vanna curve). Positive Vanna around price and above will increase volatility until that point.
Looking at $TSLA Gamma we see dealers assisting moves through 195 and 197.50 due to negative gamma with 200 being a positive gamma which will act as resistance (support if broken). #Charm is slightly more negative which is slightly more bullish.
Here is my evening rundown of $SPY & the overall market using data driven insights by @Tradytics. The data provided will help us formulate a plan for tomorrow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading. Show thread to see it all! 👇
We see Algoflow divergences below. These are assets where net flow is diverging from price. Finance sector and related names stand out as bearish. The bullish names like $U, $GE, $NFLX, $BA & $ENPH warrant a closer look for details.
The $SPY 3-day delta/price correlations show a 30% total chance of moving up to 2.7% higher and a 50% total chance of moving down as much as -3.7% over the next 3 days. Dealers are still long. Expected volatility has dropped slightly.
Here is my evening summary of dealer positioning $SPX, $SPY & $QQQ. The data is provided by Vol.land, created by @WizOfOps, and will help us identify key areas tomorrow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading. Show thread to see it all! 🧵👇
Lets start with #Vanna on $SPX & $SPY. $SPX cumulative Vanna picture is neutral in this range with positive vanna favoring downside and negative vanna hurting moves higher. $SPY is similar but with much more positive vanna favoring downside should $VIX/IV continue to rise.
Aggregate #Charm up next on $SPX & $SPY. $SPX charm is pretty neutral as well, but slightly more negative which is slightly bullish. However, $SPY is very positive which favors downside.
Here is my morning summary of $SPY using data driven insights @Tradytics. The data provided will help us formulate a plan for the day to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading. Show thread to see it all! 👇
The $SPY #Gamma based @Tradytics ghost zones are shown in the screen shot below. They range from 397 - 400 currently.
The $SPY 3-day and 5-day delta correlations all favor the upside based on historical correlations between delta structure & price. However, take note of the lower volatility (no ideal for intraday traders).
Dealer delta momentum still more negative (-0.183).