Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOpsVol.land. Small Vanna magnets from 3820 - 3840. Repellent @ 3750 & 3900. Positive Gamma resistance from 3820 - 3840. Small support @ 3775. Negative Gamma will accelerate if broken through.
Let's do the same for $SPY using Vol.land Light Vanna repellents @ 370 & 385. Small vanna magnets @ 384 & 388. Gamma support @ 377, resist @ 384. Negative Gamma accelerants in between.
Let's add in data driven insights on $SPY from @Tradytics. 1-day delta correlations show 29% chance of a positive move up to 0.6%. 3-day shows 25% chance of up to 1.2%. Dealer delta momentum still negative (-0.363).
@Tradytics $SPY Dark Pools help paint the the picture further. Volume correlations seem to be positive, be mindful of all the resistance above. Block trade sentiment has shifted to be more bullish (but relatively close).
Now, take a look at @Tradytics 5-day market net flow and delta positioning across the market. Puts continue to accumulate, Market wide deltas shifted down as well. Put positions building a month or two out. However, flow divergences also showing mostly bullish.
We need to make sure we keep all the upcoming macro number releases in mind as they are the big fundamental drivers of the market. We had jobless claims this morning, with PMI tomorrow. Jobless claims has created a bullish move. Currently holding longs on $NQ.
With the massive put build up we've been experiencing, I've been waiting for the catalyst to create one of those infamous bull rallies we see in bear markets. We *may* be at the breaking point now. The key factor is IV dropping on contracts across the market.
Keep an eye on the big holdings today such as $TSLA, $AAPL, $MSFT, etc. Names like $META and $NVDA have also been getting hammered. Downside still favorable but I'm cautiously awaiting the IV drop that can fuel the temporary rally. We'll know more as the day progresses.
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Today gave us a nice rally. In the beginning of the day, we knew $SPX and $SPY had magnets above and the market responded well to jobless claims in the AM (see morning thread). So how can we use this data to capture these large moves? How-to thread below👇
We could also see delta structure was most likely to be bullish on $SPY (see morning thread). All these factors (macro news, vanna/gamma, delta correlations) made me like upside. I prefer to primarily trade $ES, $NQ & $SPY, so I use this data to formulate my thesis before open.
However, once we view the data, we still need to play the chart. Even when I trade $SPY, I do it using the $ES chart and keep $SPY open in another window to keep tabs on it. Same with $SPX. My primary chart view looks like this, although I take my trades on my broker platform.
Can only do a light post this AM of Dealer & Dark Pool data, doing some traveling.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOpsVol.land. Once again, very light dealer participation. However, very small Vanna magnet @ 3850 and Repellents @ 3780 & 3900. We see even lighter (almost negligible) Positive Gamma @ 3825/3850.
Next we have $SPY with even lighter participation. See screen shots for details, it's a bit of a mess.
$TSLA is the talk of anyone #trading#options these days, so I figured it would be good to go through the data to see what the coming days may bring.
First off, there have been several news events related to $TSLA, including Chinese production slow downs, @elonmusk promising not to sell shares, and new gigafactory announcements. All these have made their splash and will continue to do so.
Lets start by looking at flow via @Tradytics. We see a major surge in put buying. However, compared to recent historical premiums, it wasn't the largest. Algoflow actually has this marked as neutral. The EoD spike can be telling though...
The question on your mind is how do I know when to get in? It's a 20 point range including the FVG & OB so we don't just want to buy immediately, we need confirmation. For overnight confirmations on $NQ I prefer the 1m time frame. We close in and the FVG clears quickly.
Despite the move down, we see price begin to slowdown. This is our first queue to be ready. Now we need a confirmation candle. This can include bull hammers, engulfing, pin bars, etc. Ideally, we want to see a big increase in volume with price action confirmation.
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOpsVol.land. The $SPX dealer involvement is still very light. See screenshots for small impacts various Vanna/Gamma levels will have.
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna/Gamma also very light. See screenshots for small impacts. The delta correlations indicate range. The 15-day delta momentum flipped bearish (-0.05679).
Here is my morning run down of the current market outlook using Dark Pools, Dealer Positioning and market wide Options Flow to inform our #optionstrading and #futurestrading today. Data can change but it will help formulate a plan.
Lets start with $SPX Gamma and Vanna courtesy of @WizOfOpsVol.land. The $SPX Vanna impact is minimal at these levels. Gamma is cluttered, with small amounts of support/resistance scattered in this zone. Could indicate more of a range day.
Now let's do the same for $SPY but add in some additional data points from @Tradytics data driven insights. Vanna/Gamma also a bit of a choppy mess. Scattered weak levels in this zone. The 3-day Deltas indicate highest probability of staying in a range.