6. BTC nation-state CB buy by one G20 country (Argentina?)
This recent study can be taken with a grain of salt bc it comes from noted crypto firm HarvardU but the crux is BTC+gold will become a larger share of cb reserves bc the risk of holding treasuries post Russia sanctions
6. (cont.) Corps too. We also get 2+ S&P 500 companies to add BTC to their BS
Largely bc accting rules are less punitive
In 2023 corps can mark crypto holdings up AND down rather than just mark losses (they were intang. assets). This makes it easier for corps to hold crypto
10. Move blockchains provide advantages vs solidity/rust based. These garner some interest/TVL. Aptos/Sui see over $1b in TVL as projects explore esp with ecosytem incent.
But unless a killer app hits they remain on the fringes of the L1 debate esp as Sol becomes Move compat.
11. At least one AAA quality game launches...but game tokenomics remain a challenge
$3B invested in games in the last 2 years
Fun game plus upside opp / asset ownership > fun game where I dont own my assets
-The bear helps Eth hit L1 escape velocity as it is as fast and as cheap as most need it to be by the end of 23
-Multiple zkEVMs hit mainnet
-Improvements to the EVM help mostly fight off new chains
-L2/L3s continue to incr. usage
13. Yet alt L1s still have a place..
-@solana regains top 10 status by mkt cap
-Decentralization is happening. Validator count 3xed in 21/22 across 35 countries + 100 data centers (h/t @JamesTrautman_)
-Strongest community/ecosys outside of Eth
-Most oversold
-Neon/SMS help
14. Yet alt L1s still have a place..(continued)
-@cosmos enters the top 10. The app chain model is attractive for new protocols and diff value prop than Eth not just an EVM vamp attack
-Cosmos 2.0 finally lands and tokenomics are solved
-TVL recovers to half of pre Terra levels
15. Continued consolidation of L1s.
Eth, Cosmos, BNB and Solana occupy 90% market share of TVL up from ~70% today.
The risk of building mjr projects on alt L1s is too high. By the end of 2023 these handful of ecosystems can serve just about every use case imaginable.
16. NFTs keep expanding beyond PFPs. At least 3 more major companies launch projects.
Ticketing, rewards programs, membership programs, in-game assets all continue to grow.
17. DAOs adoption, gov AUM (outside of Uni) and user growth stagnates.
DAO governance is too clunky and even the best DAOs dont do it. well. DAOs need better tooling, coordination models and trial/error.
Maybe this is a 2024 story.
18. Inst. use the bear market + clearing regulatory environ. as an entry point. At least one big bank gets involved in a big way.
$5.5T take rate across transaction intermediaries. Tradfi needs to get in on disintermediating that bf defi eats their lunch. These guys arent dumb
19. Crypto adoption continues to be a non-US story
Costs+corruption make stables go
The avg cost of sending money int. is 6%, according to the world bank, or $16B a yr
Stablecoins are effectively free.
This is crypto's most simple and straightforward use case at the moment
20. Web2 devs move to Web3. We see close to 100k monthly active devs.
-Proliferation of Rust w/ EVM integrations (and Move which is v. sim) helps
-Layoffs in big tech
-Opp token upside > stock based comp post FANG meltdown
-College grads lean tech heavy. More crypto curious
21. Self-custody has a new bull mkt w/ innovations like account abstraction/MPC @Ledger + @Trezor sales 2x. But this is a long term trend.
We see CEX volumes v DEX move back to ATHs as we onboard the normies. @coinbase finally finds a bottom in Q1 and runs in the Q3/Q4 23
(1/11) Where are we in the current crypto cycle and where do we go from here?
In this thread I'll cover:
-Cycle timing
-Predictions for the next 18m
-Investor implications
TLDR: You aren't bullish enough.
Lets dive in🧵
(2/11) Current State
-This cycle effectively started in Q4 2023 with anticipation of the approval of BTC ETF in the US
- $15b of net new flows in the asset over the first six months of the year
-Thew ETH ETF announcement on May 23rd gave a strong price bump initially jumping over 30% in a handful of days, but recent weeks have seen the asset give back all of these gains.
- We had a large deleveraging event to end Q2 with almost $1B in assets liquidated over the course of the last weekend.
(3/11) Current State
-MVRV is a ratio of an asset's Market Cap versus its Realized Cap (Cost basis of supply)
-MVRV has been the most reliable indicator for under or oversold conditions for BTC
-With a huge amt of leverage taken out of the market, we see oversold conditions
-The ratio remains at 1.5.Historically, above 4 has been a clear sell signal, and below 1 a clear buy signal
Still trying to wrap your head around Crypto x AI?
(1/6) Our latest report has you covered. 30 pages of detailed, analysis charts and investor implications. Free.
(2/6) Sizing the market. Potential AI benefits for all industries combined with strong funding leads to a massive expected impact on the global economy.
McKinsey estimated a total AI economic impact of $17.1 – $25.6 trillion, ~35-70% incremental economic impact based on AI worker productivity enabled by generative AI, including use cases.
(3/6)
What are the key components of the AI stack?
1) Training data collection and processing
To train and execute AI applications large datasets are required. Providing a too small dataset in the training phase of the AI algorithm can lead to low-quality outcome, erasing the value of the generated results. This need of enormous datasets shows the importance of third-party data providers as it would be highly inefficient to collect the data individually.
Unlike other threads put in as many hard numbers for these predictions to make them quantifiable.
Also tried to call out as many start-ups/hidden gems as possible. Most launching in Q1.
15 for 25 last year.
Can we do better this year? NFA
1. Privacy protocols are front and center. At leats one wallet integrates direct privacy features for sending transactions. I like @elusivprivacy
The debate then rages on for ZK, FHE and MPC and which cases are best for each.
2. BTC ETF (duh), ETH ETF, and one other altcoin ETF (likely SOL) are launched by the end of 2024.
We are drastically underestimating the flows not only from non-crypto holders (10% increase as noted below) but from institutional investors and 401k accounts. This leads to....…
.@Rocket_Pool is the best investment idea on the board atm imho (NFA, etc) . Why?
-Atlas upgrade (next wk) lowers threshold to run a node
-Accompanying expansion in rETH w/ more nodes
-Mechanical buy pressure on RPL (thin supply) by stakers who need to hold it
Let's dive in🧵
For Ethereum staking today there are a handful of major players with varying market shares: Lido (~31%) Coinbase (~12%), Rocketpool (~2%), Stakewise(<1%), and Frax (<1%).
Lido is #1 bc 1) were first to market 2) most integrated in Defi 3) have strong mkting/liq incentives 4) cheapest (10% of fees). These existing ad. for Lido come with a range of dis. the market has mostly looked through inc. its censorability due to a small # validators (~30)
How do you best manage a crypto portfolio? Using the data available + academic research:
-Whats the op. port mix?
-Whats the op. bench?
-Whats the best rebal sched?
-Best time to trade?
-Does tech analysis work?
Lets explore🧵
Starting with BTC/ETH.
BTC/ETH have provided empirical risk-adjusted benefits to a traditional portfolio (60% stocks / 40% bonds), despite the volatility and downside risks.
~10% outperformance for basically no vol jump.
This period captures 2018/2020/2022. Didnt matter.
Beyond simple weightings of BTC and ETH the optimal portfolio utilizing data from the past 5 years would have been:
27% ETH
62% bonds
4% BTC
7% stocks