Your comprehensive DePIN guide for 2024 and beyond

This free report from @buildwithMV contains:
-30+ pages of analysis
-8 market maps
-100s of protocols discussed
-Detailed investment frameworks proposed

Link in the last tweet. TLDR in the next few

(We did our best to include as many projects as possible, shoot me a DM if we missed you and will add!) The DePIN landscape continues to rapidly evolve with over 1000 projects and over $50B in aggregate value built across both digital and physical resources.

Real-world adoption has accelerated with hundreds of thousands of users of multiple individual protocols.

DePIN projects clearly show what crypto is really good for and can solve real-world problems. DePIN provides several key factors that legacy resource systems do not:

-A solution to the cold start problem for resource-intensive networks
-Tangible use case for token incentives for both the demand and supply side
-Cost advantages compared to legacy Web 2 models
-Improved flexibility and scalability based on local demand
-Transparent governance compared to Web2 systems
-Reduces feedback loops for continual iteration.

What value do Crypto VCs actually provide early stage startups?

Six key value adds CT is mostly overlooking. 🧵 Attention
Every investment in crypto is some percentage fundamentals and some percentage attention. Some hardcore defi protocols like Maker may skew almost 100% towards fundamentals and some esoteric assets like meme coins will skew all towards attention economy. In 2021 there were roughly 400k tokens available for purchase, today there are over 2 million (thanks ). We are seeing an average of 15k new tokens launched per day. Additionally we have a number of tokens unlocked from previous previous cycle launches and dozens of token generation events from projects that raised capital in 2022 and 2023. In July alone there are $350m worth of token unlocks and hundreds of millions in new token launches. With the huge increase in the number of tokens and expanding number of verticals, attention is more paramount in crypto than ever.

Attention also brings more capital, both on the private side and once launched on the public side. Large VCs like Pantera, Paradigm, Coinfund and Dragonfly have billions to deploy and rarely write checks under at least a few million dollars. Their Investments create a flywheel because all else equal more capital means more potential to succeed through spend in talent, marketing, infrastructure, etc. Even more than in Web 2, crypto, smaller crypto VCs and community VCs are pack animals. For better or worse they follow these big investors and quickly fill out the rounds once one of these bigger VCs leads.pump.fun

(1/11) Where are we in the current crypto cycle and where do we go from here?

In this thread I'll cover:
-Cycle timing
-Predictions for the next 18m
-Investor implications

TLDR: You aren't bullish enough.

Lets dive in🧵 (2/11) Current State
-This cycle effectively started in Q4 2023 with anticipation of the approval of BTC ETF in the US
- $15b of net new flows in the asset over the first six months of the year
-Thew ETH ETF announcement on May 23rd gave a strong price bump initially jumping over 30% in a handful of days, but recent weeks have seen the asset give back all of these gains.
- We had a large deleveraging event to end Q2 with almost $1B in assets liquidated over the course of the last weekend.

Still trying to wrap your head around Crypto x AI?

(1/6) Our latest report has you covered. 30 pages of detailed, analysis charts and investor implications. Free. (2/6) Sizing the market. Potential AI benefits for all industries combined with strong funding leads to a massive expected impact on the global economy.

McKinsey estimated a total AI economic impact of $17.1 – $25.6 trillion, ~35-70% incremental economic impact based on AI worker productivity enabled by generative AI, including use cases.

24 crypto predictions for 2024

Unlike other threads put in as many hard numbers for these predictions to make them quantifiable.

Also tried to call out as many start-ups/hidden gems as possible. Most launching in Q1.

15 for 25 last year.

Can we do better this year? NFA 1. Privacy protocols are front and center. At leats one wallet integrates direct privacy features for sending transactions. I like @elusivprivacy

The debate then rages on for ZK, FHE and MPC and which cases are best for each.

If you aren't confused right not, you arent paying attention.

I pulled all the available data to look at the end game for the rest of 2023

Quick ~15 tweets, each with a chart to understand where we are at and the eventual endgame 🧵 Earnings season came in above expectations.

Where is the recession we were promised?!

Q1 was supported by RECORD profit margins.

Aka greedflation by corps.

This is unsustainable.

.@Rocket_Pool is the best investment idea on the board atm imho (NFA, etc) . Why?
-Atlas upgrade (next wk) lowers threshold to run a node
-Accompanying expansion in rETH w/ more nodes
-Mechanical buy pressure on RPL (thin supply) by stakers who need to hold it

Let's dive in🧵 For Ethereum staking today there are a handful of major players with varying market shares: Lido (~31%) Coinbase (~12%), Rocketpool (~2%), Stakewise(<1%), and Frax (<1%).

How do you best manage a crypto portfolio? Using the data available + academic research:
-Whats the op. port mix?
-Whats the op. bench?
-Whats the best rebal sched?
-Best time to trade?
-Does tech analysis work?

Lets explore🧵 Starting with BTC/ETH.

BTC/ETH have provided empirical risk-adjusted benefits to a traditional portfolio (60% stocks / 40% bonds), despite the volatility and downside risks.

~10% outperformance for basically no vol jump.

This period captures 2018/2020/2022. Didnt matter.

1/5 The Rumors of Solanas Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Sol has 2xed off recent lows. The bounce started w/ Vitalik's tweet + BONK

YET despite the lack of fundamental drivers for the recent appreciation, SOL was vastly oversold for the fund. underpinnings of the ecosystem 2/5 Network activity on blockchains has been known for quite some time to strongly correlate to prices

While many believe Sol activity fell after FTX, daily active wallets interacting on major Sol protocols stayed constant

In the past few weeks, activity 3xed Pre-FTX levels

My personal top 25 predictions for 2023

1-2 tweets per #taek, 1 chart/pic to make it EZ on the eyes/brain

Some overlap with @twobitidiot and our firmwide theses but some notable deviations

Thanks to my awesome colleagues @MessariCrypto research for shaping many of these 1. Macro still matters. Q1 is likely to be rough

Rapid incr. in IRs + removal of liq have hist. been followed by crises as the receding tide of ez mon. policy exposes systemic weaknesses

Something will break in tradfi. Watch credit spreads

ETH 1k BTC 15k arent unreasonable Q1

Heard about MEV but still don't get it?

@chasedevens hold your hand and walk you slowly through the dark forest to discuss

-What is MEV?
-What does it look like today on Ethereum?
-What does it look like on other chains?
-What's the future of MEV? MEV is the ability for security providers to selectively insert, reorder, or censor user transaction requests during the block production process

There are many players in the MEV supply chain. From you the user down to the validator. Each have a role to play

(1/6) If your currency was rapidly depreciating what would you buy to protect your purchasing power?

The answer for Euro and Pound holders has overwhelmingly been #Bitcoin

This is notable because we did not see the same trend in previous crises in 2020 or 2021

A brief 🧵 (2/6) What about other major crypto assets? Interestingly we haven't seen the same trend with Ether. Recent volumes are fairly unremarkable compared to the last 2 years. Hard money vs the world computer?

Modular chains seem to have already won the battle, but do monolithic chains like Solana (and soon Aptos and Sui) still have any chance?

Hell yes. The consensus among CT is monolithic chains, wrapping exec, consensus, settlement + DA on one mainchain, are not the best way to scale

Chains with modular visions (ETH) and chains that focus on key areas of the stack(Celestia) are more likely to solve the scalability trilemma.

Is the merge rally stronger than poor macro conditions?

Big week for earnings (FANGs report).
Big week for macro (Fed IR decision).

Where we are at and the week ahead in macro / crypto in 7 charts We have Apple, Amazon, Meta, Exxon, Microsoft, Boeing, Pfizer all reporting. Or basically half of the stock market.

Heard about the three zkEVM announcements (@zksync, @Scroll_ZKP, and @0xPolygon) this week and unsure about wtf a zkEVM even is or what it means for Ethereum?

🧵 @eshita and I got you Lets start with the zk part. Each zkEVM plans to operate as an L2. L2s batch trans for cheaper costs + faster local processing while preserving sec of L1. L2s can by zk or op.

ZKs are the gold standard for speed/cost/sec but until now it hasnt been pos to have support on the EVM

Dogecoin is the world's most expensive running joke at $9b in mkt cap

But its also surprisingly a:
-top ten cryptocurrency
-the second biggest PoW coin
-one of the oldest coins in the industry

Is there any dev path, roadmap, or underlying value? Or is it all just a gag? After sitting undeveloped for yrs, in 2021 Dogecoin found a recommitted group of developers.

They have put together a roadmap to try and bring the tech stack up to date and rebuild the back end in an effort to help merchants add Doge payment capabilities for customers.

.@dYdX recently announced it is leaving the @ethereum Layer-2 (L2) ecosystem to launch its own @Cosmos chain.

This decision prompted many investors and builders to reconsider the tradeoffs between these two ecosystems. Today Cosmos allows builders more flexibility (language, inflation sch, trans fees, security, design, account model etc), interoperability between ecosystems, and also allows them the potential for value accrual (MEV, transaction costs, etc) for their own native token

Bear market got you down? Need something to look forward to? The merge is on the horizon my friends.

Yes, you've heard about it but how do you quantify and play the opportunity? A brief🧵 You know the merge is the change in Ethereum's consensus mechanism from PoW to PoS but what does it do for the investment case for Ether the asset?

Estimating #ETH yield + valuation post-merge has been a challenge. There are great models built but many are now out of date

W/ the merge in focus, I built a fresh set of models (h/t @drakefjustin, @Data_Always, @Saypien_) for you to mess with

TLDR ~10% yields and est $6k ETH Staker Yield Model Prediction: Real yields of 7% to 13% at the time of the merge. These will scale down over time.

Q1 2022 was the first quarter since the 1980s you literally couldn't win in any asset class....and your cash got crushed by inflation best case scenario for stock and bond investors was a -4.5% return from high yield bonds...again before inflation

Stocks up, crypto up more. Stocks down, crypto down more.

That’s the world we live in today.

But not for long.

How, when and why crypto de-couples from stocks 👇 🧵 Let’s start with the basics. What is not corr with equities? Mainly Gov bonds and Gold. Why? They have claims to some asset enough people think is RF. They give stability that investors desire during turbulent times. They retain their purchasing power during better than peers.