This is an important series of photos demonstrating a Russian S-300 missile converted to land attack with an enhanced high explosive blast as opposed to a anti-aircraft fragmentation warhead.
Where are the high speed metal fragment strikes in this photo?
Heck, you have mostly intact wooden debris that the blast generated from the building, which fell into the crater.
2/12
This is what a properly functioning S-300 fragmentation warhead looks like when detonating at night.
3/12
This is what the ~300lb 5ZH92 fragmentation warhead for 5V55K S-300 missile looks like when it fails to detonate, along with an infographic of where the warhead is located in the missile.
4/11
These are what high velocity airburst artillery fragmentation hits looks like on a brick building.
5/12
And these are what the a similar Soviet technology warhead fragments of a Buk missile fragmentation warhead look like and how they damaged Flight MH17's wreckage.
Note the consistent pre-fragmentation of a Buk warhead for anti-aircraft effect.
6/12
The ceilings & inside walls of this Ukrainian police station opposite the windows should have dozens of uniform sized high velocity fragment strikes, given the short distance from the impact crater.
It's what a 5ZH92 warhead is designed to do.
7/12
The scorch/soot marks on the previous brick wall and on the cars below are consistent with an 'enhanced blast,' AKA FAE, AKA thermobaric warhead...
...NOT a standard ~300lb 5ZH92 fragmentation warhead for 5V55K S-300 missile.
8/12
This constitutes a warhead upgrade from previous Russian land attack modified S-300 missile strikes.
9/12
Given the small size of the S-300 missile impact crater compared to others seen in Ukraine for the Mach 6.7 at engine burn out 5V55 missiles.
We are looking at an extended range semi-ballistic missile shot.
10/12
One of the Cold War gray beards I correspond with places that range at about ~150 km.
Assuming I tagged the correct Lyman (not a given).
The S-300 launcher that did that strike could be in any Russian or Russian occupied Ukrainian territory in the blue circle below.
11/12
This is Exhibit A of why a unconstrained 300km ranged ATACMS missile in Ukraine's arsenal would help defend Ukraine's civilian population from Russian missile strikes.
Like Russian artillery depots were pushed back by GMLRS 80 km.
ATACMS would push S-300 back 280 km.
12/12 End
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"Out of a population of 8,500, there were 4,202 (49.4%) deaths and 1,244 (14.6%) injured (casualty rate, 64.0%). Deaths and injuries were 67 and 11 times higher, respectively, among trapped than nontrapped victims. Being outside at the time of the...
2/6
...earthquake or having escaped to the outside from the collapsing structure was crucial for survival. Among persons found alive, 89% were rescued during the first 24 hours, mostly without the use of heavy equipment. This observation underscores the importance of swift...
3/6
Since we had a Shahed-136 drone swarm assault Kyiv on New Years.
It is a good time to resurface this 40 tweet threat analysis thread from October 2022 on the Shahed-136 threat and the need for a lot of cheap air defenses to deal with it.
Nor are those the only cheap gun systems Ukraine has deployed since October 2022.
All of these gun trucks and mounts are networked together with Ukraines "Uber-like" distributed air defense alert software that assigns drone tracks to the nearest AAA asset. 3/
@lordwhorfin@JayinKyiv The US Army & USMC has had a consistent 1 death to 10 wounded ratio since ~2010 thanks to blood clotting bandages & squad level lifesaver training.
The terms of art are "Platinum 5-minutes" for life saver care & "Golden hour" for getting wounded to hospital level trauma care
1/
@lordwhorfin@JayinKyiv The Vietnam era US Army was tracking 1 dead to 4 wounded ratio with only 1960's Golden hour trauma are.
The difference is not just early blood clotting bandages & the training to use same in the squad.
21st century trauma care has a lot more whole blood.
2/
@lordwhorfin@JayinKyiv Something like 7 units of blood are used in gunshot wound cases in 21st century US inner city and military combat hospitals.
This prodigious use of whole blood saves lives.
3/
It is the need for large numbers of cheap guns, but expensive in terms of the manpower for gun crews & logistical tail to support them, which makes Shahed-136 class prop-cruise missiles such a threat to the West.
Expensive but highly effective manpower is the signature of
2/5
...21st century Western militaries.
The 'lots of cheap guns' instead of too expensive missiles solution to cheap/low/slow drones is exorbitantly expensive in terms of trained manpower.
Only small/low/fast enough multi-kill anti-aircraft drones have the mobility to
3/5
The bar chart from @JayinKyiv below is simply of Ukrainian MoD killed Russian claims.
Wounded in addition to the dead are functions of prompt medical care & medical evacuation logistics. Late 20th century combat casualty ratios are ~4 wounded for every death.
I've gone out of my way to try and educate people on Twitter that you simply cannot use such 'standard ratios' in looking at Russian Army combat dead to wounded casualty ratios.
See my 'thread of casualty threads' at this tweet:
The problem with the 'obsolete' S-60 57 mm autocannon is that it is far more relevant today than when they were retired because low, slow & cheap is where the air defense threat is today.
21st century AA missiles are simply too expensive to trade for loitering drone munitions 2/
And, oh by the way, S-60 57mm autocannons make a really nice indirect fire tool with modern fire control.
This is a century or more old tactic called the "pepper pot" barrage.