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Jan 1 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
The fall of Apple iphone market share.
- peaked at ~40% in 2009
- kept falling none stop to 20% in 2015 and stayed at 20% since then

Does that sound similar to Tesla in EV market share? More below👇

$AAPL $TSLA
Apple iphone market share peaked in H1 2009 and then falling, the stock should fall too, right?

But no, $AAPL was up 10x in the next 6 years from 2009 to 2015
That sounds impossible if we look at how fast Android was gaining market shares.

The answer is, Apple claimed MOST of the profits. (> 90%)

So how Apple was able to pull >90% of the profits while had only 20% of market shares?

$AAPL $GOOG #iPhone #android #Samsung
Hardware software intergration

That is the secret of Apple success. They create their own software and design their own hardware so it work beautifully with each other.

Vertical intergration, does that sound even more familiar now? That the Tesla's secret too.
Tesla is the only company that can sell cars and upgrade the cars later with FSD software.

According to Elon, FSD can increase the value of a car by >5x, or >$100k. @elonmusk

Is Tesla the new Apple? Leave your comments below.
In a more recent quater, Q2 2021, Apple captured
✔️ 13% to global handset shipments
✔️ 40% of the revenue
✔️ 75% of the operating profit

A similar story to be told about Tesla in EV market.

$AAPL $TSLA
Apple and Tesla both started at the premium market.

Apple didnt make cheaper iPhone model until 2016 when it released iPhone 5C.

Tesla is expected to do the same (Model 3 Highland?).

Tesla is currently earning 8x more profit than Toyota per car, inspite of ~7x smaller scale.
More similarity, Apple and Tesla are both dominating US market.

Their market shares in the US are 3,4x more than worldwide.

- Tesla owning 65% US EV market share
- Apple owning 48% phone market share

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More from @The_AI_Investor

The AI Investor 🌎 Profile picture
Dec 31, 2022
$TSLA - problems with low stock price
1. Cashflow can be affected due to more cash needed for compensation
2. Employee morale is lowered since they see the loss in value of their granted stocks by 70%
3. Tesla's brand may be impacted negatively @MartinViecha @elonmusk @kimbal
I have no doubt that Elon doesn't care about his paper loss or even money, but a lot of employees would be upset with say $1M stocks awarded suddenly became $300k in a few months.

This is why Elon had to send an email to reassure Tesla employees and blamed the market craziness.
$TSLA stock declining may also give consumers a negative view of the company.

The public may see Tesla as a falling company. This also adds to the brand value concern over Elon's divisive political tweets.

We may not see the data yet, but when we see the data, it may be late.
Read 6 tweets
The AI Investor 🌎 Profile picture
Dec 31, 2022
Market Forward PEG [Updated Dec 30, 2022]
☑️ S&P 500: 1.7
☑️ S&P 500 Tech: 1.9
✅ Tesla: 0.57

$TSLA fair market price = 1.9 * 40 * $5.38 = $408

Tesla analyst estimate:
- 2023 EPS: $5.38 (from $5.6)
- 5y growth: 40% (from 48%)

$TSLA 5y forward PEG = ($123/5.38)/40 = 0.57
With S&P 500: 1.7 let's see how market expected $TSLA to grow EPS:

$TSLA EPS 2022E: $4.03
$TSLA EPS 2023E: $5.38
$TSLA PPS = $123

✔️ $TSLA expected 5y growth rate from 2023 = ($123/$4.03)/1.7 = 18%

✔️ $TSLA expected 5y growth rate from 2024 = ($123/$5.38)/1.7 = 13.5%
Market data from @yardeni
yardeni.com/pub/spearnreva…
Read 11 tweets
The AI Investor 🌎 Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
10 reasons to sell Tesla $TSLA $TSLAQ 👇
1. $TSLA is overvalue, PE is higher than $AAPL

Using PEG metric, $TSLA is in fact A LOT cheaper than most other mega stocks including $GOOG $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA etc.
2. $TSLA is more expensive than other car companies like Toyota

Gas power vehicles will soon be obsolete, this is a dying industry, traditional car makers are cheap for good reasons.

EV adoption is growing exponentially and Tesla is leading the trend.
Read 12 tweets
The AI Investor 🌎 Profile picture
Jun 22, 2022
A typical car company:
- may make engines
- most parts, software made by suppliers
- dealerships do sales & services
-> mainly assembling

$TSLA: the above, and
- electric powertrains
- battery packs
- super charge network (= gas station)
- Tesla OS software
- AI chip
- FSD Image
$TSLA moats:
- best manufacturing
- best electric motors
- best batter pack density
- largest supercharger network
- best data for FSD
- vertical integration -> faster rate of innovation
- best CEO that can drive product innovation
vested.co.in/blog/tesla-str… Image
$TSLA's manufacturing
- Tesla's factory: machines that make machines
- factory is the competitive strength of Tesla long-term
- giant casting machines -> make cars in the same way that toy cars are made

➡️ exponentially growth in production rates
analyticssteps.com/blogs/manufact… ImageImage
Read 26 tweets
The AI Investor 🌎 Profile picture
Oct 27, 2021
$PATH, UiPath Inc.
- Market leader in the Robotic Process Automation (RPA) software market
- Software robots that use AI, Computer Vision, and RPA to emulate people
- Massive & fast growing TAM when automation is changing how work is done
- ARR: 726.5M, 60% up Y/Y
- NRR: 144% ImageImageImage
UiPath robots:
- See: use AI/Computer Vision to read the screen
- Think: use AI/Machine Learning to decide what to do
- Do: RPA interacts with applications via UI/API
As the leader, UiPath has the most data -> data network effects.
CEO - Daniel Dines
- UiPath is a founder led company
- ex SDE at Microsoft
- MS in Mathematics and Computer Science Image
Read 9 tweets
The AI Investor 🌎 Profile picture
Oct 26, 2021
$STEM Stem, Inc.
- Leader in AI-driven energy storage solutions
- Massive TAM and strong macro tailwinds
- First mover AI platform: operates with 40+ utilities, 5 grid operators
- Athena AI software generates 30%+ more savings
than the competition
- Recurring SaaS model, ~ 80% GM ImageImageImage
Athena AI
- The Edge Platform continuously collects extensive data from meters, breakers, energy storage and solar generation systems and conducts local, real-time control.
- The Athena Cloud Platform processes data provided by a network of Stem’s edge devices and other sources. Image
- Athena Analytics: AI models forecast the electricity demand of individual buildings and of wholesale markets, as well as distributed solar production
- Athena’s optimization engine maximizes the value delivered by Stem's networked energy storage
Source: Athena whitepaper Image
Read 10 tweets

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