A representative survey of US adults in mid-2022 found that 7% had long COVID (4-week definition; using questions developed by the UK’s Office for National Statistics).
I've not commented on this study so far, because it's uncertain what the findings mean. But I've seen some commentary that's definitely wrong and causing a lot of unnecessary concern. Further study is needed, but here's why I don't think people should be worried. 🧵
Second, this has nothing to do with IgG4-Related Disease, where IgG4 antibodies are thought to be an epiphenomenon. That is, they are an effect of the disease, not its cause.
China’s decision to not just abandon zero COVID but to embrace an extreme “let it rip” policy is a catastrophe for both the Chinese people and the world. It will leave millions dead or disabled, badly damage the global economy, and may spawn dangerous new coronavirus variants. 🧵
The scale of the disaster is hard to imagine. There are an estimated 1,000,000 new infections and 5,000 deaths each day.
Not that you'd know this from the official statistics, which are no longer reported daily. The official death toll stands at 5,242. dw.com/en/china-stops…
The huge number of infections is reflected in the fact that China is exporting COVID-19 cases again. And not just exporting a few, either.
A danger of giving up trying to control SARS-CoV-2 is that we increase the probability of a low likelihood but high impact event occurring. One such risk is recombination between SARS-CoV-2 & MERS. This could theoretically occur if someone were coinfected with these two viruses.
MERS has a case fatality rate of 36%, while SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible. A recombinant that shared some of these properties could potentially be catastrophic.
MERS hasn't gone away. According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 6 MERS cases were recorded in 2022. All occurred in the Middle East, all were primary cases, and all but one of the infected people reported contact with a camel. ecdc.europa.eu/en/middle-east…
An important new retrospective study of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada between the start of the pandemic and early 2021, has found that about 1% of these experience substantial post-infection morbidity. 🧵 cmaj.ca/content/194/40…
In early 2022, about 45% of Canadians had a recent SARS-CoV-2 infection.
The authors write that over the next year, about 1% of these people will likely be admitted to hospital roughly 1 week longer than those who didn’t have COVID-19.
They will use 6.6% of pre-pandemic hospital bed-days at a time when almost 20% of hospitals have already averaged more than 100% annual occupancy rates.
A recent review into Australia’s response to COVID-19 contained some material on children and schools that is either wrong or misleading.
Notably, the review cited controversial research by one of the 47 original signatories to the notorious Great Barrington Declaration. #auspol
First, the review wrongly claims schools “were not high-transmission environments”.
But international data clearly show schools played an important role in amplifying the pandemic, if mitigation measures such as improved ventilation were not in place. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
The review then makes a number of claims about COVID-19, children & schools in Sweden.
The first big problem is the key reference (92) covers only the first few months of the pandemic, up to & including June 2020.