Thread by @dedafima

IN 2023 $TSLA WILL RECEIVE $10B+ IN VALUE* FROM #InflationReductionAct

*Value can be reflected in the form of direct revenue to $TSLA, better pricing power, and/or bargaining leverage. 1/

1. 890K 🚗 Sales in 🇺🇸: $7.5K Consumer/Commercial Vehicle Credits = $6.7B. Includes 500K 3/Y and 90K S/X from Fremont + 250K Ys and 50K #CyberTrucks from Austin. All these 🚗are eligible to receive the $7.5K credit via commercial/biz/gov fleet sales OR via consumer leases. 2/

Even though a portion of these vehicles will get exported, @Tesla still gets the pricing power benefit of the $7.5K credit (otherwise, why export?). In addition to no battery sourcing reqs, the Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit has no price or income limits either. 3/

2. 5K #TeslaSemi Sales: $40K Commercial Vehicle Credit = $200M. This d/n include state incentives, which could potentially 3X+ the total value of the credits. 4/

https://twitter.com/dedafima/status/1609600660118605825?s=20&t=mUxfkCYDDEB9-k6G6krJ4Q

3. 20GWh Lathrop Modules: $200M ($10/kWh module credit). Based on Q3, current run-rate for Megapacks is ~2GWh/quarter. 20GWh is aggressive growth, but I think it will come in the form of Tesla limiting China prod. to 1M 🚗/yr and shipping 200K vehicles worth of cells to🇺🇸 5/

4. Those 200K 🚗 (65kWh avg. pack size) = ~13GWh of cells, so 20GWh of Megapacks is doable and supports much better margins than local Chinese 3/Y sales thanks to the 30% energy storage credit. 20GWh is ~5K Megapacks and ~$10B in revenue. 30% = $3B. 6/

https://twitter.com/dedafima/status/1608870925876989957?s=20&t=VGsWCMfjBuEO9N9tGvpzlQ

5. 40GWh NV🔋Prod. = $1.8B ($45/kWh cell & module prod credit). @bradsferguson pointed out Tesla's contract w/ Panas. gives Tesla the right to tax credits. Sharing is caring b/c it seems like the potentl value of the credits has refueled expans. plans. 7/

electrek.co/2022/10/03/tes…

6. 20GWh 4680 Prod. = $900M ($45/kWh). Current 4680 run rate is ~4GWh/yr. so 20GWh for '23 should be doable.

There are other credits- charging stations, solar, etc. but those are more difficult to project rn.

'23 Total Value: $12.8B. And that's just Year 1.🤯 8/8