Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Nickel

Most recents (24)

We’ve seen this before, we will see it again. Goldman Sachs: you can’t just add up all the #lithium mine level potential & make an oversupply call

The speciality chemicals world is more nuanced than iron ore

It’s why the world doesn’t rely investment banks for research any more
To make forecast calls especially for Nickel and Lithium at the moment should be regulated.

Much like our IOSCO price assessments.

There should be a min amount of expert work required to make such high profile calls that impact investors, esp the retail community.
Slapdash forecasts do a disservice to the all the work the professional publishing world conduct - including our competitors
Read 5 tweets
Rezession voraus

Die Fed erhöht die Zinsen und will die Nachfrage sowie die Preise damit runterfahren.
Zunächst scheint dies zu gelingen.
Eine #Rezession mit Ansage

in diesem 🧵 gehe ich im folgenden auf einzelne Rohstoffe ein:
#Aluminium tendiert niedriger, die Nachfrage scheint zu sinken:

Aluminium? Wo?
Karosserien,Fahrwerke, Motorblöcke, Getriebe, Heckklappen, Türen, Felgen, Zylinderköpfe, Räder, Effektpigmente für Lacke, Fahrräder, Motorräder, Züge wie ICE aber auch Straßenbahnen
ebenfalls bereits leicht sinkende Preise zu erkennen

Eisen ist essentiell für Stahl und kann flexibel verwendet werden. In der Bautechnik wird es unter anderem für die Herstellung von Schiffen genutzt oder auch für größere Gebäude
Read 16 tweets
1/x If you are investing in #nickel projects pay attention to sulphide vs laterite.

20 m @ 1% Ni

✅ good intercept for sulphide deposit
🔴 poor intercept for laterite
2/x I am surprised how poorly companies label their projects as laterite.. Run search in NR for "laterite" 🔎
3/x So what is a nickel laterite?

Volcanic rocks with a low grade nickel weather in tropical climate and nickel ore concentrates in the weathering profile.

Intercepts of 7-15% of Ni are common on good projects.
Read 7 tweets
1/ Could the #LME #nickel fiasco happen to the #Comex #gold and #silver market?

On my recent Twitter Spaces with @PalisadesRadio I mentioned that we may have a problem with current and future availability of gold and silver bars from the expanded refiner list.

Please retweet!
2/ Back in 2020, the #CME expanded the list of approved refineries whose bars are eligible for good delivery to the Comex. This was due to overwhelming demand for physical product and to maintain an orderly market.…
3/ 51 #LBMA approved gold refineries had been added to the eligible brand list for the COMEX 100 (GC 100) gold futures contract. Of the 51 refiner brands, the top countries represented are 12 refineries from China and 7 from Russia.
Read 18 tweets
Another take on China’s shutdown of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangdong, etc. China is desperately in need of crude oil, LNG, food, basic materials, base metals, and more. Putin’s invasion/massacre has created additional energy scarcity, inflation, and skyrocketing food inflation. 1/12
Whilst China hasn’t had any material problems with the virus from Wuhan in the past, it’s interesting that their draconian lockdowns (in conjunction with telegraphing the purchase of fewer cargos of LNG and crude) are forcing global economists to ratchet growth expectations 2/12
lower whilst concurrently shifting future demand projections for commodities lower. Everything China desperately needs to acquire is trading down in price as a result of the lockdowns. If we all take a look back, the primary driver of China’s current account moving into 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Costs of making #EV batteries have skyrocketed due to rising prices of metals, fossil fuels & electricity. Mining & processing of #BatteryMetals is incredibly toxic & dominated by China. Reducing costs & producing materials in the US will be extremely challenging. Here’s why. 1/ ImageImage
EV’s are a lithium ion battery with a cathode made of #lithium, cobalt, #nickel & manganese & a graphite anode. Energy is produced when metal oxide in the cathode pulls + charged lithium ions from lithium carbon in the anode through a separator (a highly efficient process). 2/ ImageImage
Li ion batteries are ground breaking due to ability to reverse this process & pull lithium ions back into the anode to recharge the battery. Traditional batteries can’t do this. Li ion batteries can also handle ⬆️ amperage so they can be charged faster than other batteries. 3/
Read 18 tweets
When #EV OEMs need to become miners has been the Benchmark story of 2022. @benchmarkmin

What we mean by this is outlined in this thread:
Future EV demand is surging beyond the ability of the lithium ion battery supply chain to respond in full.
As we approach the end of the decade, the number of EVs that’s OEMs want to produce become impossible to make considering the critical battery raw material volumes in the pipeline … if all existing expansions and new mines make it, in most cases there still wont be enough
Read 14 tweets
Dalian iron ore futures gain 4.7% in night session, coking coal futures up 2.9%, coke futures up 2.3%.
#coal #CoalTwitter #ironore #iron
SHFE nickel, steel rebar, hot rolled coils futures rise more than 2%. #nickel #steel
Shanghai INE crude oil futures rise 1.9%, low sulfur fuel oil futures rise 2.1%. #OOTT
Read 4 tweets
I recommend reading the full “deal” to reopen Nickel trade at LME on Wednesday, 16 March.

I mean are u kidding me: $3.5bn trades canceled! The guy still short 150,000 tonnes! Refused to “be closed out”!? JPM agreeing not to increase margins etc…!

1/5 #Nickel
Read 5 tweets
Tsingshan Group has reached an agreement with a consortium of hedge bank creditors on a standstill arrangement: official statement
#CN_Update #nickel #nickelsqueeze #Tsingshan…
Tsingshan Group: In the course of the standstill period, Tsingshan and the consortium banks will progress discussions in relation to a standby secured liquidity facility intended principally for Tsingshan’s nickel margin and settlement requirements.
#nickel #nickelsqueeze
Tsingshan Group: For the period of the standstill, the participating hedge banks agree not to close out positions against Tsingshan or to make further margin calls in respect of existing positions.
#CN_Update #nickel #nickelsqueeze #Tsingshan
Read 4 tweets
China's most active nickel futures rise 3.5% in night session to 214,050 yuan/ton, thermal coal futures up 2.4%. #nickel #coal #CoalTwitter
Dalian coking coal futures fall 4.3% at night open, coke futures down 3.7%, iron ore futures down 3.6%, LPG futures down 3.2%, palm oil futures down 3.1%.
#coal #CoalTwitter #LPG #ironore #iron
Zhengzhou thermal coal futures trim intraday gains to 0.2% vs rise of 2.4% at open. #coal #CoalTwitter
Read 4 tweets
#Golf and the #LME
I was once told a story about Ernie Els’s caddy. Ernie is one of the best golfers ever and had a superb caddy. Ernie was injured for a tournament so a rookie professional on the tour asked if his caddy could work for him that week.
So on the first tee the caddy hands the young man a 3 iron and tells him to hit it 250 yds down the right-hand side.
The foolhardy young pro ignores the caddy and takes out his driver and hits it 330 yds down the left into deep rough, completely obscuring a second shot into the green.
Read 17 tweets
I've been looking at the #Nickel trade data for Tuesday morning and the cancelled #LME trades.
The numbers are quite staggering:
9,064 lots traded
VWAP of $71,743
Contract value = $3.9bn !!!!
#LME has cancelled all of these #Nickel trades.
By moving the price back to $48,078 they have wiped out $1.3bn of PnL on these trades.
I have traded on the #LME since 1994 and have seen many trades cancelled in that time - always because of genuine fat-fingered mistakes. Market participants are Gentlemen and are happy to cancel mistakes because you never know when you will make one.
Read 5 tweets
Here is my attempt at explaining the Nickel Short Squeeze we experienced over the last few days. Which has seen a Chinese Stainless Steel Producer, Tsingshan, get squeezed so badly the LME was forced to suspend nickel trading and cancel a bunch of trades. #nickel #nickelsqueeze
Tsingshan is the world's largest stainless steel producer. Owned by Chinese entrepreneur Xiang Guangda aka “Big Shot”.
Tsignshan pioneered nickel processing through Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace (RKEF) to produce “nickel pig iron”; a product that contains somewhere between 2% and 13% nickel, and a bunch of other junk, mostly iron, at a greatly reduced cost.
Read 15 tweets
One result of the @LME_news #nickel madness has been people questioning the wisdom of hedging in nascent derivative markets like #cobalt & #lithium if the risks of wipeout margin calls could undermine any risk mitigation. It's a fair concern, but one that's broadly unfounded...🧵
2/ The key distinction is between physically-settled & cash-settled futures. The meme move on Ni was the result of a short squeeze on a contract requiring physical delivery of expiring positions - "he who sells what is'n his'n must pay the price or go to prisn" as they say
3/ Co & Li on @LME_news, @CMEGroup & soon @SGX are cash-settled basis @Fastmarkets prices, & it's infinitely more difficult to squeeze & move an open spot market assessed by a PRA than it is an exchange delivery point based system (see also Apr 2020 WTI example)
Read 9 tweets
Day 8 #Russian stock cycle bottom theme, more stocks added to the negative buy list ....we are locked in and loaded. We will still locate more options not suspended from buying, to slowly scale into.
Any positive outcome would result in 3-30x moves in the suspended #Russian opportunity set, a nice balance against long #commodities.
We are very happy to be locked into the cheapest #Nickel play globally as the spot surges to unprecedented levels.
Read 3 tweets
Recently #commodities are reflecting a knee-jerk reaction to the conflict b/w Russia and Ukraine, but it's the longer-term neglect that's created the foundation for profoundly higher prices for longer.
Let's look at exploration and capex for industrial metals.

Short thread.
Global exploration budgets for #copper, #nickel and #zinc peaked in 2012 at $6.4B after a run in commodity prices, surpassing 2008 high of $5.2B. As prices fell from the high in 2011, exploration spending cooled to an avg. of $2.7B/yr since 2015.
2006-2015: $40B
2016-2020: $13B
Capex spend is similar. Aggregating capex for select major to mid-cap producers shows a clear lack of investment vs. prev. yrs, despite increasing sales in recent yrs. Notable is cons. estimates this trend to continue through 2023.
2006-2015: 13.4%
2016-2023E: 8.6%
Read 4 tweets
#Russia’s nickel & Germany’s #cathode and auto #EV industry.

Nornickel + #BASF: An long term term partnership descends into an unholy alliance

As Russia attacks Ukraine, our industry’s eyes are fixed on @BASF and what it does next

And here’s why…

Russia’s Nornickel (Norilsk) supplies 20% of world’s class 1 nickel - the suitable supply for lithium ion batteries and #ElectricVehicles (and 7% of global nickel)

Most of this goes to China.

Germany was relying on expanded future supply of Russian #nickel as a key pillar in its battery and #EV expansion

This is via the partnership between Nornickel and German chemical / cathode maker, #BASF

Read 11 tweets
#RussiaUkraineConflict - we are getting a lot of inquiries about Russia and critical minerals, esp for #ElectricVehicles & #batteries

A few @benchmarkmin facts:

#Nickel is on red alert.

Norilsk is the world’s largest class 1 nickel producer accounting for 20% of global supply
Norilsk overall accounts for 7% of all in nickel supply. But EV makers, auto OEMs and battery cell producers will terrified of losing 20% of a market with prices already at decade long highs.
China will not place real any sanctions on Russia and as a result ensure all #nickel continues to flow into its mainland and into Chinese made battery cells and EVs

Follow @GregMiller_BMI @CDMRawles for more
Read 8 tweets
1/n Beijing is trying to go green. ♻️🇨🇳

The push for #ElectricVehicles is paying off as sales increased by 160% in 2021


This has created fears of shortages in key metals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium.

#China #GeoNews #Economics
2/n The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that plug-in hybrid sales more than doubled to 600,000 units in 2021.

That compares to the 480,000 which were sold in the #USA in the same year.

#GreenPlanet #ElectricVehicles
3/n China's auto sector grew at a lukewarm rate of 3.8% last year.

And Beijing has been proactive in promoting electric vehicles and has extended subsidies that were due to expire in 2020.

The push for #ElectricVehicles in #China has led to a shortage of important metals.
Read 6 tweets
Macro shorts commodities on 1bps of inflation deceleration. Mind u though: demand is half the story nor the real story!

Years of underinvestment should make shorting oil, EU/A gas or metals risky business this time & in absence of a deep recession due to Fed mistake.

Nickel - the battery metal - first. If you short Nickel, you deserve to lose all your capital. Reason: ignorance!

Read 10 tweets
"Glencore will acquire all ferronickel produced from the Araguaia project"
Underinvestment in #nickel project, @Glencore is at mercy of their falling production numbers.
Glencore Trading desk seeing their ni stockpile melting like snow in the sun. Rumors they use to own 50% of LME stocks in their own facilities Access world.
Now being Chinese?…
So now why Glencore keeps publishing cobalt offtakes with battery makers, Freyr, Tesla, GEM but no #nickel offtakes?
Last I checked, chemistry was 1 part #cobalt for 6 to 8 part #nickel……
Read 6 tweets
Demand for #nickel from #ElectricVehicles will grow 13 times by 2030. #NorilskNickel benefits from the trend of long-term growth in demand for nickel: the company earns 21% of its revenue from this metal.
$GMKN $MNOD $NILSY #NorNickel Image
Nickel is one of the most important elements of batteries for #ElectricCars. Nickel will be in high demand over the next few decades as #gasoline cars are replaced by electric ones. #Nickel demand from electric cars can grow at a rate of 29% per year.…
Aggregate demand for #nickel could grow 36% by 2024. In 2026, this will lead to a deficit of 560 thousand tons. Scarcity means higher prices, metal miners will benefit from this.…
Read 3 tweets
💸 Is hyperinflation a reality? How to protect yourself?

Money may well depreciate at times. This has already happened before, even in developed countries. #Inflation in developed world is accelerating, and the authorities are carried away by populism. Image
• In the #US, inflation has already accelerated to 6.2%
• In #Germany, it reached a 28-year high of 4.5%.

Authorities of developed countries put above #inflation problems of #SocialJustice in labor market (employment in all minority groups is important) and #climate warming. Image
Populist views are capturing the minds of monetary authorities, which only fuels #inflation. This was the case in the #USA in the 1970s: prices almost tripled.
And sometimes it was much worse: in Israel in the 1980s, prices for goods jumped ~10,000 times. Image
Read 10 tweets

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