Keep in mind, the frontline is constantly moving and positions are changing hands.
Svatove
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Stel'makhivka. Possibly increased activity in the area of the Kupyansk bridge head based on shellings.
Kreminna-Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Makiivka, Ploshchanka and Bilohorivka. Local telegram chats report small arms fire "close" to Kreminna, unclear if they are shooting at drones or if there is actual fighting.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks around Rozdolivka, Soledar, Krasna Hora, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut and Kurdyumivka. It seems RuAF are making small gains north and south of Soledar, a few trenches/firing points per day.
Both sides are taking heavy losses around Bakhmut, but the numbers are never in favor of the attacker in a attritional conventional ground war.
The continued RU attacks on Bakhmut could be compared with the RU attacks in the Izium area during the summer. This is how the RuAF destroyed most of their combat potential. During the summer they used a lot of forced mobilized LDNR but they ran out and now use mobilized Russians
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Avdiivka and Marinka. I have no expectations of any major movements in this area.
The AFU recently hit Orc locations around Velyki Kopani, Kostohryzove, Hola Prystan' and Tokmak
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992
Since last fall, Russia have increased their effort to build shelters for aircrafts. I have identified 14 localtion where they have build or are building shelters.
Kirovske
45.1709, 35.1761
10 U shaped walls, no roof.
Engels AirBase
51.49953, 46.23520
Construction recently started, ground work for 10 shelters.