The Harry/William allegations in #Spare are part of a serious crisis for the British monarchy. 1/ It means Charles III will not define the institution's future: the way the two sons are reconciled will, and it's not looking great...
2/ Why do I care? Because our unique parliamentary sovereignty system relies on a stable and publicly apolitical monarchy; but the political and social content of "Harry/Meghan vs the Firm is overt...
3/ Every time the Palace tries to placate the furore by stonewalling Harry, the right-wing media pile in and attack him, appearing to confirm his basic premise that the two institutions are in cahoots on a reactionary/racist agenda...
4/ If Harry/Meghan lose the titles and are frozen out completely, this ends up much worse than Edward VIII crisis: Edward was a Nazi sympathiser shunted quietly to the Caribbean, with the plebs having no clue as to his treachery... for many young people H&M are role models...
5/ It's not helped by having a destabilised Tory government: three PMs in six months - when Downing Street should be on the front foot demanding clear norms of behaviour and discourse from the Royals...
6/ Someone in public life has to design and execute a reconciliation of Harry/Meghan to the institution they are still part of. The initiative rests with Buckingham Palace or Downing St. Whipping up a Twitter mob against H&M, whoever's doing it, is a bad idea.
7/ However cringe the Netflix series was, it told a coherent story, with principal characters most young adults could relate to, and issues they care about. H&M mastered the art of selling the 21stC monarchy, only to be kicked out of it.
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British defence policy is at a fork in the road. As the 3rd PM in 6 months grapples with how to ditch the ill-fated "Indo-Pacific Tilt" - how do we focus limited resources on where the threat actually lies? 1/ Start by ditching Johnson's hubris...🧵 theneweuropean.co.uk/forget-johnson…
2/ The Indo-Pacific is a political construct, not a geographic area. It entered British political lexicon with Brexit, and the "Tilt" is part of the hard Brexit strategy: deprioritise NATO/Europe... wrong time, wrong place - and Labour warned them... labour.org.uk/press/john-hea…
Questions every lawmaker prevaricating over Western support for Ukraine has to answer: 1/ Do you respect international law? medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
2/ Do you accept that Russia has committed the crime of aggression - and that Ukraine has the legal right to use force in self-defence? medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
3/ Do you accept the UN's R2P Declaration? Do you accept there is evidence of Russian war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide? medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
A theory of fascism. Source: How To Stop Fascism (2021) 1/ It's the product of social and ideological disintegration, triggered by a fear of freedom ....
2/ Though fear of freedom is everywhere, it's particularly strong in groups with a material interest in Un freedom ... #HowtoStopFascism
3/ It's not just a capitalist defence mechanism - its function is to reverse historical progress. Today's fascism - primarily ethnonationalist - is far more explicitly anti-modern than before ...
Ten takeaways from @RUSI_org report on Ukraine war: 🧵1/ Putin planned the attack in July 2021 and set FSB to design it as an annexation... all claims that NATO suckered him into a war = false paulmasonnews.medium.com/90-days-of-atr…
2/ The atrocities were baked into the plan. They weren't the result of ill discipline - from killing Zelensky to filtrating the population and abolishing 🇺🇦 language the design was annexation/genocide...paulmasonnews.medium.com/90-days-of-atr…
3/ Putin achieved operational surprise with the attack on Kyiv - but surprised his own troops so badly they had no clue what to do when it went wrong (eg asking locals for directions who then called fire on them)...paulmasonnews.medium.com/90-days-of-atr…
If you're wondering why the "Swiss-style deal with EU" story has not been killed, here's the answer (from OBR's March EFO)... UK trade took a hit once Brexit transition ended... 1/ But it's not all the Brexit effect...
2/ ... it's the absence of a post-Brexit growth model. One of the worst things about Johnson was his failure to execute on any strategy ... and his strategy turned out to be fantasy island: emulating Clive of India...
3/ So you get massive disruption, paperwork, ill-will, skills shortages ... then in the post-Covid recovery UK doesn't make the goods that are surging (cars, semiconductors)... and deglobalisation makes that worse...
What would Labour do about fiscal austerity - legitimate question...it's clear that everyday economy , the green investment plan and industrial strategy are locked in as Labour policy... 1/ 🧵 none are achievable under Hunt's fiscal plans... paulmasonnews.medium.com/youve-never-ha…
2/ So there's no way Labour can stick with Hunt's plan for a deflationary recovery that looks like this. The £28bn/year borrow to invest programme is crucial to making this chart look different...paulmasonnews.medium.com/youve-never-ha…
3/ Labour's actual problem is not the absence of a strategy: mission oriented industrial strategy, decarbonising the electricity grid, massive skills investment and solving social care all fit together... paulmasonnews.medium.com/youve-never-ha…