#Dollar Considerations & how it could impact risk-on assets such as #Bitcoin & #SP500 in 2023.
This past week I've seen a lot of calls expecting a #DXY bounce/rally for the upcoming weeks & months.
I'd like to share another perspective.
A thread 🧵
1/ Let's start with a #DXY analysis on the 6 months chart.
As you can see, we couldn't have had a more text book shooting star candlestick close than we've just had in December 2022.
It indicates a potential price top & reversal.
Not to mention its significance as it's on HTF.
2/ Moving on to the 3 months & 2 months chart analysis.
4th quarter's just closed with a bearish engulfing pattern.
Same configuration for the 2 monthly.
=> It could signal lower prices to come.
3/ Monthly LMACD (M)
The monthly Logarithmic MACD looks like it's forming a bearish cross that could occur in the upcoming months.
When it happened in the past decades, usually #DXY experienced a significant drop.
4/ From an Ichimoku perspective (W)
A month ago a significant bearish TK cross occurred and 2 months ago a big bearish candle broke the Kijun (🔵).
I shared back then my target : the Kumo (cloud).
The momentum is bearish & the weekly candle closed with an inverted hammer.
5/ From an Ichimoku perspective (M)
As Tenkan (🔴) didn't hold last month, I expect the price to hit its Kijun at $102. If it can't hold the price, a free fall to the Kumo (cloud) might happen.
6/ What could be next for the #dollar & the impact on risk-on assets.
#Bitcoin & stocks are usually in an inverse correlation with the #dollar.
Based on the #DXY chart analysis above, I expect a downtrend continuation which could result in #Bitcoin & #SP500 rallying in 2023.
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2/11
What is F&G exactly?
It’s a multifactorial crypto market sentiment analysis.
It shows how people are feeling towards #Bitcoin at any given time.
As market usually moves against the majority’s sentiment, market’s sentiment can be considered as a contrarian indicator.
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3/11
While market lows usually occur with extreme fear and market tops with extreme greed, it should be pretty easy to time the market so far right? 😃
Let’s not jump to conclusions as F&G is often misused.
#Bitcoin been sitting in extreme fear territory for some time now.
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1/6 I'm seeing a lot of new people entering the space, saying that :
- They're bullish long term and bearish short term.
- They're more than happy to be able to DCA at lower prices 30k, 28k, 24k, 20k,17k etc.
- They would sell their houses & organs to buy BTC at these prices.
2/6 Saying that:
- They will be buying the fear cause it's where money is made.
- Bitcoin is the future of money & believe in the blockchain technology.
- They’re into NFTs & Metaverse.
- Bear market is for DEFI staking & farming until next bull run.
3/6 Point of concern:
- They’re CONVINCED despite the economic context that bull market will start just after the 2024 halving.
- They’re CERTAIN about the old narrative likely to happen all over again. Even though they got rekt buying the top as exit liquidity EOY 2021.