Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DXY

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Perfect #Storm

What Happened In 2002-04 & What Is Happening in 2020? Is There Any Hint For #Equities?

1. Dollar Index #DXY

In Dec 2002, DXY Broke Multiyear Support Line & Went Into Longterm Downtrend, Shifting Flows to Emerging Markets over next 5-10 yrs
2. India 10 Yr Yields

Hitting multiyear lows in 2020 - Like in 2003/2009

Beneficial for interest rate sensitive industry demand

3. Gold

Started Long Term uptrend in 2003, Like in 2020

Basically reflecting Currency Debasing , which inevitable causes Hard Asset Price Inflation
Read 6 tweets
#EURUSD Major forces about to be unleashed! When current correction (abcde) finalizes - which will happen soon - the coming crash will send shock waves through global economy. Fast decline to ~0.98 and later this year further decline to target 0.80-0.85. Take care! USD will soar!
#DXY Observe massive bullish momentum building in RSI. This is explosive! Very quick rally to ~110 is imminent - before pause and further rally towards 117 - and likely 122. Pain ahead! Take care!
And we got this pattern for US10 yr Yield. About to rally in correctional wave C - while inflation has been plummeting. Real rates about to rocket higher!
Read 3 tweets
These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Read 19 tweets
Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Read 17 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
#XAUUSD Weekly chart! Take care! Image
#EURUSD and #DXY turning after their corrections. Now - wait for #Gold. Wauw - if feel lucky I'm an EW'er. Then again - it prevents me from participating in the excitement of Fool's rallies....! 😉 Image
People needs to look at structures! Not levels or feelings. Structures of price actions! Identify correctional patterns. Rally in #XAUUSD #Gold since March 16th is 100% correctional. All corrections r ALWAYS retraced completely and more. Wave Cs bring people in on the wrong side! Image
Read 7 tweets
Dear all. #Deflation is here as forecasted. #Oil and #Commodities etc. are declining rapidly towards targets I have put up here in #HZupdates. We are still to see the major fall-outs. The situation is dire! CBs are fully committed to sacrifice the currencies to save the economy!
#Oil has reach the target of ~20 USD. But - I don't think we have seen the bottom yet! Why? Technical. I think we will see a triangle forming as wave iv - before Oil plunges towards its final target ~10 USD. Deflation not done despite massive CB and fiscal intervention! Image
#CRB has also reached the target area. Still, I expect further lows - following some sideways consolidation. Throw-over is to be expected for a Ending Diagonal. The significance of the bottom cannot be over-emphasized. This is a SECULAR BOTTOM - and the final low for inflation! Image
Read 20 tweets
The mother of all QEs is here - @federalreserve has announced:
a. Interest rate cut by 100bps to 0% - 0.25%
b. Emergency lending rate cut by 125 basis points to 0.25%,
c. Increased the emergency lending term of loans to 90 days.

#USD #FEDrate

d. Buying of $500 BN of Treasurys and $200 BN of agency-backed mortgage securities.
e. Pushed major banks to use the equity + liquid buffers ($1.3 TN + $2.9 TN) for lending and manage credit expansion.
Instantly, eight largest U.S. banks (Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo) have suspended share buybacks program to support the Fed's idea of credit expansion.

#bankofamerica #CITIBANK
Read 6 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
#Deflation phase has started. Stocks will plummet in 5 waves down to ~1800 in #SP500. Wave 2 and 4 will be corrections. We have break of 200SMA and trendline from early 2019. I think we see a backtest of these (yellow area?). But - in general trend is down - and fast!
#USD #DXY is about to set off on a major move higher. The current correction is a wave 2 (blue) and hence next wave will take us to min. 103 - but more likely 106-107 in an impulsive move. Do not stand in front of the USD train coming months!
#EURUSD kissing 50SMA and pot. also 200SMA "Goodbye" - before turning down hard. Next wave will take down to - and likely below bottom from early 2017 - only for a short consolidation before EUR crash continues. LT-target remains ~0.85
Read 14 tweets
Standard Chartered 1/5: #USD – The peak is nearing
We remain neutral on the USD albeit with a slight negative bias as the uptrend appears to be coming to an end. However, we believe conditions for a reversal are not yet in place.
Standard Chartered 2/5: The USD has remained relatively resilient on the back of the US’s strong cyclical story relative to the rest of the world. Additionally, tight USD liquidity and capital flows have remained USD-supportive and could persist.
Standard Chartered 3/5: The higher US yield structure means that any US flows to the rest of the world will likely be hedged while flows into the US will likely be unhedged – which could prop the USD up in the near term. Further upside risks include an intensifying #tradewar,
Read 5 tweets
#fed #repo #dollar #dxy thread w/ a couple new points about timing/catalyst related to cash repatriation and buybacks.
Issue 1) Widening $1T fiscal deficits are causing large supply of UST at unprecedented % of GDP outside of recession/war.
Issue 2a) In last five years, foreign sources and Fed not buying UST. Private domestic balance sheets (blue line) have thus absorbed $3T in new UST in those five years.
Read 9 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning! 😀End of August --> Time to look at some Monthly charts. What does the latest Monthly candles suggest for the road ahead for global economy? Stay tuned for #HZupdates
Yesterday, I posted this chart for #EURUSD. This is very central, as it provides indication for direction of USD. Major topping pattern - backtest in early 2018 - now targeting <0.9. Notice August candle! Zoom-in chart 2. It seems to be very Bearish #HZupdates
Turning towards Monthly chart for #DXY, we got corresponding candle to what we observed in #EURUSD. Bullish which set #DXY on the path towards min. 111, pot. as high as 120. Trend line suggest we could get there by Q1/Q2 2020. USD strength will create global challenges #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
#ECB is likely to crash EUR in attempt to stimulate EU-economy🤦‍♂️(incompetence in ECB is staggering!). Wait for waterfall moment in #EURUSD. Currently flirting with LT-trendline. Target 0.85-0.91 #HZupdates
Major drop in #EURUSD will send #USD #DXY soaring (following pot. ST weakness). LT-target for DXY is >111. This is likely to be the trigger for REAL Fed intervention, which will push economy out of Deflation #HZupdates
Rally in #USD will push #Gold (#XAUUSD) into major decline in final wave C, which will take yellow pet rock below 1000 USD. Imo no way that structure of rally since 2015 is new Bull market. It is ZigZag-correction topping ~1480 (here!) or ~1590 (-1600). Major Bull trap #HZupdates
Read 8 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
#CBOE #VIX #volatility index, also known as #WallStreet's "fear gauge" records biggest one-day spike in 10 months
MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks #shares across 47 countries, fell for a six straight day on Monday - marking its longest losing streak this year.
Read 10 tweets
Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
So - #Gold is rallying towards AT - right? Bulls have won! Somebody should send the memo to #Silver. While #Silver normally leads or peaks with Gold - Gold has been on its own spree. Man - I would love to join the Gold Euphoria 😉 Bear Flag - perhaps? #HZupdates
Somebody should also send that memo to #GDX. Notice how GDX bottoms and supports Gold in Bull market. New high in Gold = New High in GDX. Not what we see now! #HZupdates
But....#USD is breaking down as Fed will cut rates.... No - it is not! #DXY is CORRECTING in a clear stairs-like structure. We can see 95 or 94 - perhaps lower. But this is no breakdown #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning FinTwit 🙂 Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets

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