Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jan 8 7 tweets 5 min read
Public Health Harry Potter

🤝

Invisibility cloak

Threads by @RealCheckMarker, or more SARS experts (?), are hidden. Like @noyesjhumphrey previously. Bad sign - recall, it was a notable warning 👇 re #BQ* #XBB15)
1. Aviation. I think calling for point-of-entry screening, if needed isolation/quarantine as century old public health measures, to ensure international travelers don’t spread VoC at the current unmitigated rate, alone can be enough to be hidden/suspended.
2. Superbugs. While I don’t know what bug plagues Twitter, here a brief thread worth rereading. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1597581…
3. We are inching up the FAFO (fck-around-find-out) scale

I’d been warning about XBB and Friends since October; the FO can spark joy much longer if the FA is delayed or outsourced to less well informed people

“Responsibility punted down to billions,” as @RealCheckMarker remarks
2023
4. Invisibility cloak. I shared but 🚮 now. @RealCheckMarker warned of a third wave observed/emerging in 8 weeks, for a solid three overlapping XBB* BQ* [X] waves, wave interval 3 months, 28 days apart.

Follow @T_Brautigan to see if the prediction wins a Gold Reality Checkmark.
5. Example: national not global, but you get the point. May differ in each country. I don’t have the data

If we want to see positive change, we need to warn more not less

Hate to mention we’ve been warning (Same on climate long before the pandemic), few listened. be safe & well

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More from @_ppmv

Jan 9
On climate and SARS, I don't think reduced visibility helps anyone right now; will leave my account unlocked for now. So the band plays on, Image
And the dolphins jump into the sun. Image
If everyone can catch up with Dr. Hansen's latest preprint and ask policymakers what they intend to do about that - and about not all of us catching SARS all the time -, both might help.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 9
I mentioned SARS/MERS-CoV (1) persist in the renal epithelium in 1 in 3 patients until cells regenerate after 500-787 days; (2) are airborne; (3) draw down rather than build immunity; (4) infections drive mutations and should stop; (5) HIV medicine may help patients access care.
None of this new (to attentive readers) or even controversial. Yet it attracted an outsize crowd of fools and personal insults by at least one researcher, so I deleted the post. I gain nothing from useless controversy, it's just distraction. Good luck out there,
Did media and policymakers reconcile the contradiction yet that they believe Drosten just told them "the pandemic is over" in the same interview in which he told them in a deadpan way that unvaccinated children at 30 may have the immune system of an 80 yo.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 8
Good question. We will make progress on mindbreaking questions only if experts laserfocus. I’ll add that viral persistence of up to 500-787 days in renal epithelial cells in 1 in 3 infected, PLUS policy of constant reinfection forever, mean any argument on reconstruction is void.
Public health has been silenced. Else we would have been warned in time. This article on SARS-acquired immune system damage dates 10 May 2020; we all knew by then. I applaud everyone’s pedagogical tact. As we enter the fourth year, denial is unsustainable.
SARS is a notifiable event under WHO IHR 2005 for good reason. Assume any index case(s) in 2019 were reported to WHO, because they must. The rest is global health politics, not science.

washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05…
Read 8 tweets
Jan 8
“Herd”, “hybrid” or “vaccine” immunity are fantasy. The way out of the pandemic is to eradicate the pathogen - like we did for SARS 2003.

It shouldn’t take a Master’s in IR or political science to see that continuity is no option for states. 1/2
Vaccines have delivered what they can. Do we need better ones? Absolutely. Will better ones end the pandemic? No, because if we abuse them, SARS-CoV-2 will just mutate around them sooner or later. The present high incidence is unsustainable.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 6
We shared pandemic information in high frequency and intensity. Governments and even media shared less. Why?

Because the alternative to international cooperation in the face of a highly transmissible, mutating virus, is isolation.

thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/…
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/… Image
I may reach 50,000 people; government and media millions. Not all need all information (twitter is disinformation AND science-heavy, hence the schizophrenic vibe here)

Yet even basic warnings don't reach "the public" (I like the Chinese term, 老百姓)

Eg
To put it positively, we have a real challenge ahead.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 31, 2022
(1) How will states stop SARS?

We covered the problem; let's explain the solution next year to help people

These elements sustain the pandemic:

(a) Airborne transmission
(b) Immunodeficiency
(c) Lack of leadership

Walensky speaks the truth. CDC can't control (c). #SIDU 221231 ImageImage
(a) airborne spread is known and we have solutions: Check ✅

(b) immunodeficiency/#LeonardiEffect are deniable. Read @RealCheckMarker @fitterhappierAJ

It's dynamic: no solutions but (a) will work. Check ✅

(c) Unaccountable leadership is the problem. ⛔️
@RealCheckMarker @fitterhappierAJ (3) Now reframe the question

How can states stop (a) airborne spread and (b) individual and population-level immunodeficiency to end the pandemic with the tools available (WHO IHR 2005)?

What is the alternative (BATNA) if they don't?

Here the solution:

Read 25 tweets

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