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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Jan 9, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

Let's review the basics: Until February 2022, every time Putin used military power, he scored a geopolitical win. He invaded #Georgia in 2008 - he still got Nord Stream 1; he invaded #Ukraine in 2014 - he got Nord Stream 2 nonetheless; 1/

@ZelenskyyUa

3. he butchered the Syrians in Aleppo - he returned Russia to MENA with little or no objection from the West. And had #Ukraine's @ZelenskyyUa not shown real leadership and the Ukrainian people real patriotism, where do you think Europe would be today on this conflict? 2/

Analysts like to talk about "inflection point in history," often exaggerating the importance of a given event. But the war in #Ukraine is truly a system-transforming war. We are watching an event that happens once in several generations. It sets the course of history. 3/

Depending on how the West responds - especially Europe as the US support for #Ukraine has been there for all to see - will determine whether the European dream a Continent "whole and free and at peace" will become reality, or if Europe will once again pay a much higher price. 4/

@WSJ

I say this because there is a whiff of 1938 about Europe's political stasis today. In a recent piece for @WSJ I called it a "crisis of disbelief" -- the unwillingness to accept that for three decades the West deluded itself. So, my advice (take it for what it's worth): 5/

First and foremost, let's be honest with ourselves about how misguided European Russia policy was -- all thirty years of it. And let's say it loud and clear that Russia is a fascist neo-imperial state, and that talking about "Russia's legitimate security concerns" is nuts. 6/

We are in a twilight struggle against an enemy that doesn't live by our rules. This is one of those moments in history where one needs to step up, defeat the enemy, and only then talk about a postwar settlement. Let's stop buying into the Russian narrative. 7/

Russia is the aggressor murdering innocent people in #Ukraine. It must be decisively defeated so that there will never be another Putin spinning the narrative about a "betrayal of the great Russian people" or any other Russian version of the Dolchstoßlegende - it is simply a lie.

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More from @andrewmichta

Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Aug 6

🧵I just listened to another economist bemoan the end of the global free system that the United States has helped to build over eighty years. I'm not a fan of tariffs and the jury is still out as to whether the Trump administration's approach will work. But let's be honest. 1/6

The idea that we have lived in an open global marketplace is bizarre to say the least, considering the amount of regulatory and state intervention we have witnessed over the years. Communist China in particular has been predatory mercantilist in its trade policy for decades. 2/6

This global "free fair trade" was neither free nor fair. It was predatory on the part of Beijing while US corporations allowed themselves to be extorted for intellectual property in exchange for labor arbitrage and market access. All the while, America's heartland was gutted.3/6

Read 6 tweets

Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Jul 28

🧵The US-EU trade deal has generated a lot of talk on X about how this is a humiliation for the #EU, how it should be a wake up call for Europe, how Europe must assert itself, etc. My take is that if anything it should finally put paid to all the talk about the EU as “Europe.”1/5

The European Union is a treaty-based organization, not a nation-state that can function as a unitary actor in the international system. It has been remarkably successful as a framework for integrating Europe’s markets and providing regulatory structures (sometimes excessive).2/5

But despite all the talk about EU foreign and security policy, Europe remains a continent of nations with distinct histories and cultures, and with regionally-focused threat perceptions and national interests. This should be the starting point of any discussion of EU policy. 3/5

Read 5 tweets

Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Jun 8

🧵There is a race among European capitals as to which country will take the point as the lead in relations with the United States. In Europe's capitals one hears plenty of talk about the unified EU, but the Trump administration sees it differently, preferring bilateralism. 1/10

Paris, London and most recently Berlin have registered their desire to take that spot, each country's leader having visited the White House with a message of cooperation and underscoring how important transatlantic relations are, both when it comes to the economy and defense.2/10

This is in stark contrast to contrast to various and sundry declarations about the imperative of Europe's "independence" from the United States heard in Berlin and Brussels, or the perennial talk about "strategic autonomy" heard in Paris in different permutations each month. 3/10

Read 10 tweets

Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Jun 1

🧵A quick follow-on comment on the story in the @WSJ about @Harvard being the premier educational institution for communist China's party elites. The problem is deeper than US schools simply getting foreign student tuition. It is about how ideologically blinded we've become. 1/10

National security is the irreducible function of the state-without it democracies cannot make independent political and economic choices. For a democracy, ensuring that no policy choice endangers national security must be the guiding principle for every aspect of governance. 2/10

And yet for over 30 years we have allowed our adversaries unfettered access to our best universities and research facilities, all the while asserting that in this "globalized flat world" communist China will modernize and generate a pluralist system. What were we smoking? 3/10

Read 10 tweets

Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

May 25

🧵Watching the West stumble from one crisis to the next, I think democratic governance has been hollowed by our inept elites, possibly beyond repair. I see this both as a byproduct of globalization and what has been happening deep inside our nations and our communities. 1/10

This hollowing out of Western democracy is not about electoral processes or counting votes. It’s about the elites believing less and less they actually owe something to their fellow citizens by virtue of being part of a larger community. This core national bond is cracking. 2/10

This hollowing out of Western democracies is caused by the decomposition of the nation—driven by the deconstruction of national identity without which the bond of citizenship no longer rests on the mutuality of obligation among citizens regardless of their wealth or class. 3/10

Read 10 tweets

Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

May 10

🧵A few observations from this European trip. BLUF: Our European allies—at least some of the largest ones—do not fully appreciate that we are in an economic war with China. As I wrote here, how Europe rolls on China will define transatlantic relations. 1/8 politico.eu/article/europe…

When I hear that some key allies will not decouple from the PRC, but may actually strengthen those economic relations, I’ve got to ask: What do you want your future to be? Are you ready to decouple from the US and throw your lot with the Chinese Communist Party as your future?2/8

Do you see yourself as a link in the land-baset supply chain network run from Beijing called Belt and Road? Do you believe that your future no longer lies in then Atlantic? If so, please say so loud and clear because right now we are debating what our force posture should be. 3/8

Read 8 tweets

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