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The Napster Profile picture
@emmpeethree
Jan 12, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Report - Megathread
"2023 Outlook: Down, But Not Out"
Top 2023 ideas
Oil $CVE $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP
Gas $AAV $ARX $BIR $TOU
Themes
-Capex increase Y/Y
-Cash returns to rise
-M&A for inventory
-Historically discounted multiples
1/x
 #COM #OOTT

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More from @emmpeethree

The Napster Profile picture
Jan 13
NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels (21 page report)
"2024 Outlook: Drive To Differentiate; If You Ain't First, You're Last"
1/11🧵
#COM #OOTT
Image
2/x
Key themes for 2024 - return of capital
Image
Image
3/x
Return of Capital, M&A, Production per share growth
Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
The Napster Profile picture
Apr 1, 2023
DJ - Shaken, not stirred - 4Q22 review, and 2023/2024 estimates

Charts/tables edition 1/10 🧵

First up: 4Q22 Quarterly CFPS comparison

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
#COM #OOTT
2/x
 2023-2024 capex
$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
3/x
 EV/DACF (2024E) vs FCF yield (2024E) at strip prices (March 17)

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
Read 10 tweets
The Napster Profile picture
Mar 31, 2023
DJ - Shaken, not stirred—4Q22 review
-pullback a buying opportunity 1/x 🧵
Top picks:
$SU integrated
$TOU large cap gas
$ERF mid cap oil
$AAV mid cap gas
$SDE wet gas
$FRU royalty

$ARX.TO $CNQ $CVE $CPG $PEY.TO $PNE $TPZ $TVE $VET.TO $WCP $ATH $CR $HWX $NVA $IMO $MEG
#OOTT #COM
2/x
 1. Cash flow continues to moderate but still provides robust returns
2. Staying on budget in 2023
3. Unbridled growth no more
4. Balance sheets are no longer a major issue for most companies
5. Is returning 100% of FCF the right number, or is it overkill?
3/x
 6. Base dividends have mostly reached a ceiling
7. The lion’s share of discretionary FCF will continue being deployed through share buybacks
8. Recycle ratios remain healthy on the back of strong commodity prices amid rising FD&A costs
Read 4 tweets
The Napster Profile picture
Mar 31, 2023
NBF - Revisiting Liquids (Wet gas) Peers
-revisit the relative bias across our liquids peers:
$KEC, $KEL, $NVA, $PIPE, $POU (~250 mboe/
w/ $9-10b market cap
-recent management updates
~75% of CF in group from liquids (9% CFPS per $5 WTIΔ, 4% per $0.25 HH Δ)
1/x 🧵
#OOTT #COM
-Gas Resource Peer Comparables (Strip Pricing)
-2023e CFPS Sensitivities to +US$5/bbl WTI
-2023e WTI Breakeven Pricing (Strip Pricing) Including Hedging
-2024e/2023e Multiple Compression (Strip Pricing)
2/x
$KEL (OP & $7.50 TP)
$NVA (SP & $16 TP)
$KEC (OP & $25 TP)
$POU (OP & $37.50 TP)
3/x
Read 5 tweets
The Napster Profile picture
Mar 30, 2023
TD - Exploring Full-cycle Costs & Margins of Canadian E&Ps
-Which Companies Have the Lowest Full-cycle Costs?
gas $PEY.TO $AAV, oil $CPG $WCP
-Highest margins?
$PEY (cash cost), $SDE (F&D cost & tax pools), & $CPG (realized price & tax pools) then $ARX.TO
1/x 🧵
#COM #OOTT
2/x
 2023E Full-cycle Cost – PDP F&D + Cash Expenses (ex. Hedging) at Strip

and

Full-cycle Cash Costs Relative to Commodity Mix
3/x
 Full-cycle Cash Flow Margins (at Strip)

and

Full-cycle Cash Flow Margin Relative to Production Mix (at Strip)
Read 4 tweets
The Napster Profile picture
Mar 27, 2023
NBF - 2022's top Canadian wells by cumulative BOE and top AVG BOE/d production for Bakken, Cardium, Charlie Lake, Clearwater, Duvernay, Mississippian, Montney and Viking plays 🧵

$CPG still dominates the Bakken north of the 49th

#COM #OOTT Image
Cardium

Led by $PEY.TO, Orlen, $CNQ, $SDE, $CVE, $WCP

Amazing diversity between gassy and liquidy! Image
Charlie Lake

$TOU $TVE $CNQ $WCP $KEL

quite the range from gassy to liquidy again! Image
Read 8 tweets

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