Geoffrey Supran Profile picture
Jan 12, 2023 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
NEW: In @ScienceMagazine today, our latest peer-reviewed research shows Exxon scientists predicted global warming with shocking skill & accuracy between 1977 & 2003, contradicting the company's decades of climate denial. THREAD.

📰No pay wall for 2 weeks: bit.ly/ExxonKnew2poin… Image
2/n: This is the first ever systematic assessment of an oil and gas company's climate projections. It's published by me, climate scientist @rahmstorf (@PIK_Climate), and historian of science @NaomiOreskes.
3/n: We began by collecting every available global warming prediction reported by Exxon scientists in internal memos & peer-reviewed papers. This yielded 16 temperature projections from 1977-2003 in 12 graphs, shown here with subsequent *observed* temp changes overlaid in red. Image
4/n: For example, this is a graph from a "proprietary" 1982 Exxon memo showing “an estimate of the average global temp increase” from 1960-2080 due to future fossil fuel burning. Overlaid are:

Blue = Observed CO2
Red = Observed temp change

Immediately, the overlap is striking. Image
5/n: Next, we digitized all 16 global warming projections reported by Exxon scientists, and plotted them on one graph:

Gray = Exxon's predictions
Red = Observed temperature change

This, in a single image, is what #ExxonKnew. Image
6/n: Our analysis also allows us, for the first time, to put a number on what #ExxonKnew: that burning coal, oil, and gas was going to heat the planet by 0.20° ± 0.04°C every decade.

And they were right on the money...
7/n: Using established IPCC statistical techniques to test the performance of Exxon’s temperature predictions in comparison to historical observations, we find that most of Exxon’s global warming forecasts were accurate (63-83%, depending on the metric used). Image
8/n: Exxon's global warming projections were also CONSISTENT with, and AT LEAST AS SKILLFUL as, those of independent academic and government models. Here are the stats...
9/n: CONSISTENT:

Exxon’s average projected warming (0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade) was, within uncertainty, the SAME as that of independent models (0.19° ± 0.03°C per decade).
10/n: SKILLFUL:

Global warming projections modeled by Exxon scientists had an average ‘skill score’ of 72 ± 6%, with the highest scoring 99%.

For comparison, NASA scientist Dr. James Hansen’s predictions presented to US Congress in 1988 had skill scores of 38 to 66%. Image
11/n: (⬆️ When we account for differences between forecast and observed atmospheric CO2 levels, the ‘skill score’ of projections modeled by Exxon scientists was 75 ± 5%, with seven projections scoring 85%+. Hansen’s 1988 projections had corresponding skill scores of 28 to 81%.)
12/n: We also show that Exxon scientists:

1⃣ Correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age.

2⃣ Accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detectable.

3⃣ Reasonably estimated the ‘carbon budget’ for holding warming below 2°C.
13/n: In public, however, ExxonMobil contradicted each of these conclusions.

Here's ExxonMobil repeatedly exaggerating the uncertainties of climate science and modelling. Image
14/n: ExxonMobil has also often denigrated climate models.

In 1999, CEO Lee Raymond said future climate “projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, sheer speculation.”

In 2013, CEO Rex Tillerson called climate models "not competent."
15/n: And here's Mobil and ExxonMobil cultivating the myth that in the 1970s, there was a scientific consensus that the planet was going to cool down rather than heat up. Image
16/n: In sum, our study is #ExxonKnew2point0. It puts a number on, and paints a picture of, what #ExxonKnew, which is that burning fossil fuels would heat the planet by 0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade.

A picture tells a thousand words, and this one sums up how Exxon knew and misled. Image
17/n: We now have airtight, statistically rigorous evidence that Exxon accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists.

In that sense, this graph doesn't just communicate a crisis, it confirms complicity.

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More from @GeoffreySupran

Oct 12, 2023
Big Oil's new "potentially game-ending" strategy to kill climate lawsuits is to argue it had "no duty to warn" because climate science was "'open and obvious' for decades.”

Sadly, I & @NaomiOreskes predicted this defence in our 2021 analysis of ExxonMobil's climate rhetoric. 1/n
Image
2/n: We saw this coming based on computational detection of Exxon's systemic climate "risk" rhetoric & its historical alignment w/ a cornerstone of Big Tobacco's legal position on the "risks" of smoking, which is that "Everyone knew but no one had proof." tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/15/sup…
3/n: Note that the wording of the oil companies' legal defence itself assiduously practices this strategy by referring to the "impact of fossil fuel use on the global climate" not as the factual reality that it is, but as an "alleged" possibility.
Read 5 tweets
May 1, 2023
🚨Climate Accountability Lab at University of Miami is hiring!🚨 Pls share widely!📢

Researchers at all levels (undergrad, grad, postdoc, senior scientist, consultant) interested in investigating climate disinformation & propaganda, pls reach out! Postdoc job listings below. 1/n Image
2/n: Postdoc #1: Climate Change Disinformation and Propaganda. Quantitative and qualitative applied social science methods welcomed.

More info and application form here: umiami.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UMCareer…
3/n: Postdoc #2: #2: Digital Climate Deception. Computational tracking of climate change discourse on social media.

More info and application form here: umiami.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/UMCareerStaff/…
Read 8 tweets
Jan 12, 2023
🥳Some news!🥳 I am thrilled share that I have just joined the University of Miami as a tenured Associate Professor of Environmental Science & Policy!

My new group, the Climate Accountability Lab, will investigate climate disinformation & propaganda by fossil fuel interests. 1/n
2/n: Housed at @univmiami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, & Earth Science @MiamiRosenstiel, my group will conduct cutting-edge data science, communication science, and history of science research that holds bad actors accountable for obstructing climate action.
3/n: Major research initiatives will include tracking climate deception on social media & scrutinizing Big Oil's funding of academia.

For (very occasional!) updates on the Climate Accountability Lab's research findings & job listings, please sign up here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
DAMN. Smoking gun documents uncovered by US Congressional investigation expose the oil and gas industry’s secret strategy to weaponize their climate pledges to “further secure the industry’s license to operate." 1/n cnn.com/2022/12/09/pol…
2/n: This should fundamentally shift how the public, press, & policymakers perceive Big Oil’s climate commitments: as propaganda defending business-as-usual by, as BP privately put it, “protect[ing the] role of gas as a bridge [fuel], & position[ing] gas as a destination fuel.”
3/n: This amounts to a climate strategy of one step forward & two steps back. Investments made today will make or break humanity’s ability to stop catastrophic climate collapse, yet oil & gas firms are marketing & lobbying strategically to hook society onto further fossil fuels.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 21, 2022
NEW report today by me & ati.io @NCoC reveals European oil, car, & airline companies' systematic use of language & imagery (of nature & demographics) on social media to brand themselves as green, innovative, & charitable. THREAD. ati.io/three-shades-o…
2/n: We conducted visual and textual content analysis of 2,325 organic social media posts this summer from 22 of the largest fossil fuel producers, car manufacturers, & airlines in the EU. We looked at Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube.
3/n: We found that during this summer of record temperatures, droughts, & wildfires in Europe, all 22 oil, car, and airline companies remained explicitly silent on the topic of climate change. Just 0.3% of posts mentioned "climate change" or "global warming".
Read 18 tweets
Oct 13, 2021
This is (apparently) really happening folks. For the first time in history, CEOs of Big Oil will testify to US Congress about their multi-decade disinformation campaign to mislead the public about the climate crisis. H/t @maxinejoselow for the scoop. 1/n
washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
2/n: For quick context, I & @NaomiOreskes wrote last year about why "it is our opinion that holding the fossil fuel industry accountable would be one of the most impactful ways for Congress – & governments around the world – to combat the climate crisis." theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
3/n: Last week I reiterated that point to @bbcworldservice's #TheClimateQuestion as part of a discussion about the latest evidence of Big Oil's malfeasance:
Read 7 tweets

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