ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jan 12 10 tweets 3 min read
1/ Yevgeny Prigozhin's apparently premature announcement of Soledar's capture has reportedly led to a desperate push by Wagner to make it a reality. Wagner is fighting without regard for casualties, not just to gain Soledar, but for Prigozhin's reputation.
2/ The Russian VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source (likely within Wagner) says of the situation at Soledar:

"It's a nightmare there now: the rush to announce a full takeover has led to the fact that one has to operate on the edge of what is possible.
3/ "The Wagnerites are literally being pushed from behind, everyone is being driven there – if Prigozhin personally has already announced a complete capture, then the price of the matter will no longer play a role. Losses for such a small section of the front are wild.
4/ "If something does not work out with Soledar now (the probability is minimal, but theoretically it's there), the Ministry of Defence will use it against Prigozhin and the 'Musicians' personally - the supply of shells will not only not be improved, but reduced altogether...
5/ "I wouldn't be surprised if those commanders who reported to Prigozhin yesterday that everything had already been taken and there were only a couple of hours [of fighting] left, these commanders might well have been reassigned to the assault troops.
6/ "Now the Wagnerites have to stretch out heavily and cross the river, at the same time the MLRS and artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shot everything there – they hit like in a shooting gallery, and there are plenty of snipers there as well.
7/ "Drones are constantly circling above, watching and throwing VOG grenades. There is nowhere to take cover – everything is in open space.
8/ "And the weather is such that if you are wounded in these conditions, you have almost no chance of survival – even if you stop the blood loss, you will freeze. There is no way to evacuate from there. Everyone is dead [if they get hit]." /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jan 14
1/ Unfortunately this kind of incident does happen in wartime; it's not a surprise and it's not a blunder for Arestovych to admit it. Here's a famous example from the Blitz in World War 2.
2/ On 15 September 1940, RAF pilot Sgt Ray Holmes shot down a German Dornier 17 bomber over London, but was himself brought down by the disintegrating aircraft. (He supposedly rammed it, but this is disputed.) Image
3/ Two 50kg bombs from the Dornier landed on the lawns of Buckingham Palace but fortunately didn't explode. After losing its tail, the Dornier crashed in the forecourt of Victoria Station. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 14
1/ The Wagner Group's apparent success in capturing Soledar appears to have been a Pyrrhic victory, with the mercenaries suffering such massive casualties that their future and ability to recover are now reportedly in doubt. ⬇️
2/ It was previously reported that Wagner's head Yevgeny Prigozhin saw the assault on Soledar as a way of strengthening his hand against the Russian Ministry of Defence (see below). However, Wagner's losses may now make this more difficult.
3/ The Russian VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source has told it that Prigozhin has gone to St Petersburg to discuss Wagner's fate, possibly with Putin. The source says:
Read 12 tweets
Jan 13
1/ Belarus is creating its own version of the Wagner mercenary group, according to a report from Deutsche Welle's Russian service. A private security company called GardServis is said to be increasing its workforce and training to participate in hostilities. ⬇️ Image
2/ DW reports that according to Valery Sakhashchik, a member of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's 'shadow government' with responsibility for defence and security issues, GardServis has been training with Belarusian special forces for several months.
3/ Founded in 2019, the company is well-connected to elite figures. It's the only private security firm in Belarus that is allowed to possess firearms, under a June 2020 decree by President Lukashenko. It was sanctioned by the EU, Britain and the US in December 2021.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 13
1/ Russian tank repairmen in Belgorod have some explaining to do after they reportedly accidentally set on fire and blew up a T-72 tank they were repairing, also damaging two other tanks. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Bazabazon Telegram channel reports that a fire broke out at a tank repair base in Belgorod on the evening of 12 January, due to a violation of fire safety rules.
3/ The channel reports: "Due to a fire, ammunition detonated on one tank, as a result of which it was destroyed. The fire spread to two other T-72s standing nearby, but they were saved.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
1/ The Wagner Group's enormously bloody assault on Soledar is motivated by Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's wish to strengthen his hand against the Russian Ministry of Defence in directing the war in Ukraine, according to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel. ⬇️
2/ According to a source (apparently a Wagner insider) quoted by VChK-OGPU, the mercenary company "urgently needs to be replenished in the region of 25-30 thousand people (primarily assault troops) just to make up for the total losses."
3/ (Note that this tracks reasonably well with the casualty figures cited by @michaeldweiss and @JimmySecUK in their article linked below – "the US estimates 4,100 have been killed and another 10,000 injured". The US figures may well be an underestimate.)
news.yahoo.com/russian-mercen…
Read 24 tweets
Jan 12
1/ @davidfrum has rightly highlighted the Church of Scientology's hidden role in promoting the so-called 'Fair Tax', which @BruceBartlett discussed in the Wall Street Journal and also in a CBS News piece linked below. I thought I'd add a bit more detail. cbsnews.com/news/scientolo….
2/ Bruce writes in his CBS News piece that the idea of replacing income tax with a national sales tax was promoted by "a man named Steven L. Hayes, the founder of a group called Citizens for an Alternative Tax System (CATS) ... and who was ... a prominent Scientologist."
3/ And as Bruce says, "It wasn't hard to figure out the Scientologists' motives ... The IRS had refused to recognize Scientology as a legitimate church ... To remedy this situation, Scientologists waged war against the IRS."
Read 30 tweets

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