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Jan 13, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1) I respect @garyblack. He deals with facts tho may disagree with analysis.

Here's $TSLA '23 sales and OP est in same format (no updates for US/EU price cuts yet).

'23 cons rev $109B (+33% Y/Y). Cons OP $19B or 17% OM.

~ 10-20% price cuts ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities ImageImage
2) flows directly to bottom line (assuming all else equal for now e.g. opex unchanged).

It's tough for OM not to decline 50% or more even if units grow > 50% (and I'm doubtful).

I.e. EPS could easily fall 50%.

After every price cut there's a quick orders spike. Unknowns ...
3) dominate after that.

Reminder orders had to double (or more) 1H '23 just to make estimates given depleted backlog (meant Q4 orders were as low as ~200-250K).

Now even if order run rate double (we'll see) profitability falls something in order of ~50%.
4) Gary must realize this isn't correct way to view '23 consensus since most estimates are stale.

Avg $TSLA '23 EPS post 1/13 is $3.88.

Avg '23 GM is 22.1% (too high IMO).

Big dispersion. Will change with more updates.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities

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More from @ResearchQf

Dec 20
1) Robots are making huge strides. Mechanical multiplied by AI 3D vision, physical models etc.

It's only one AI adjacency but its impact alone is enormous coming years/decades.

Imho this alone could be by far largest macroecon driver yet it's being ...
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2) generally ignored.

AI eyerolling has faded. Hmm maybe this is real. But with exception of few forward thinkers, macro analysts seem want whole thing to just go away.

Look at Citi report in 1). It's public. Payback could be 29W at $7.25/hour or ~ my earlier back of envelope. Image
3) Robotic cost curve is more predictable (largely physical engineering). But AI turbocharges productivity vs auto mfg 20Y ago.

Pace of tech progress is incredible on all levels.

E.g. Citi mentions LiDAR for 3D. Remains portfolio theme despite huge vol. More up vol vs down ... Image
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Nov 14
1) Holy crap this is gen2 like $GOOGL NotebookLM I've wanted.

Already copy paste and analysing financial data, charts, AI papers. Grad student level. I'm talking to the damn thing and asking questions.

A famous paper by John Bell that ended up disproving Einstein's attempt ... Image
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2) to frame an objective reality with his EPR paper (QM is correct but are there hidden variables?).

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3) Double slit experiments, entanglements, non-locality stuff.

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Gen 4 super AR analyst with 1M Rubins. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
1) Reasoning/inference and domain knowledge/ability stood out first right?

An interesting but less explored direction? A long thread but worth it. Conclusion first:

AI is on verge of (or at) design & engineering across major industries. Or medical diagnosis etc.

Coding/SW ...
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2) Ph.D. STEM problems, agents etc skills are better known and amazing, but here is just one example that combines reasoning, expertise, application (interconnects will be huge + also dear in my portfolio) in a way I haven't seen.

I'll compare Claude later. It's night and day.
3) The prompt again, thought process and answer. I'll show 2nd prompt later.

Will also describe idea more intuitively later.

But o1 thought more like an engineer. It didn't take an equation from the internet and do a simple division like other models. It thought, calculated ...


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Aug 28
1) Fate of markets depends on $1B or $2B difference in $NVDA guide.

There are tons of whisper surveys. Some game them. A bear might answer too high. Or a bull answers too low.

But it seems Asian investors do have higher expectations than US investors. Will Oct guide really ...
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After hours prob. Or days or even weeks. But unless BW cycle or LT AI growth outlooks change, is it ultimately that imporant?

Not sure I'd present this framework. Implies $43B upside case Jan Q vs $31B cons (DC)! Unless something drastic ...
3) changes (fixes, ramps, capacities) that's unlikely. I know this post is well meant but FYI.

Why? Pre-glitch models had 500-600K BW GPUs F2H. But PRODUCTION not rev.

It's clearly lower now. But even if it's 300K F2H as in that model, it won't be incremental $11B rev. Plus ... Image
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Jul 8
1) My 2¢ on "AI capex cycle has to pause soon right?" part X.

Even as an AI bull, this is a discussion I had to have with myself and people on and off this site. As soon as right after $NVDA Apr '23 Q blowout.

Conclusion 1st. Outlook improved after every broad overview of data.
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Little doubt ...
3) David Cahn @sequoia is smart, but there are prob more smart folks on the other side.

And even some very smart people often lean on what they know vs what they know they don't know. E.g. software margin. Or it's all rates.

Btw GS report reads bit ...
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Read 6 tweets
May 14
1) Maybe $MP did bottom. May buy more if close at this level.

One of many examples with potentially huge secular story. And is cyclicality reversing to tailwind?

Cyclical. Rare earth prices still edging up from Mar lows after -70% from '22 high (EVs renewables industrial etc).
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2) Now the interesting part. There's a chance MP is a robotic+ beneficiary.

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3) well, critical electromechanical tech, including EVs, turbines but now coming AI robots and military hardware (e.g. actuators as mentioned earlier).

"Humanoid robots accelerated into reality with AI are likely to utilize multiple per unit magnetic ...
Read 4 tweets

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