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QF Research Profile picture
@ResearchQf
Jan 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
1) I respect @garyblack. He deals with facts tho may disagree with analysis.

Here's $TSLA '23 sales and OP est in same format (no updates for US/EU price cuts yet).

'23 cons rev $109B (+33% Y/Y). Cons OP $19B or 17% OM.

~ 10-20% price cuts ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities ImageImage
2) flows directly to bottom line (assuming all else equal for now e.g. opex unchanged).

It's tough for OM not to decline 50% or more even if units grow > 50% (and I'm doubtful).

I.e. EPS could easily fall 50%.

After every price cut there's a quick orders spike. Unknowns ...
3) dominate after that.

Reminder orders had to double (or more) 1H '23 just to make estimates given depleted backlog (meant Q4 orders were as low as ~200-250K).

Now even if order run rate double (we'll see) profitability falls something in order of ~50%.
4) Gary must realize this isn't correct way to view '23 consensus since most estimates are stale.

Avg $TSLA '23 EPS post 1/13 is $3.88.

Avg '23 GM is 22.1% (too high IMO).

Big dispersion. Will change with more updates.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities

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More from @ResearchQf

QF Research Profile picture
Sep 15
1) Reasoning/inference and domain knowledge/ability stood out first right?

An interesting but less explored direction? A long thread but worth it. Conclusion first:

AI is on verge of (or at) design & engineering across major industries. Or medical diagnosis etc.

Coding/SW ...
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2) Ph.D. STEM problems, agents etc skills are better known and amazing, but here is just one example that combines reasoning, expertise, application (interconnects will be huge + also dear in my portfolio) in a way I haven't seen.

I'll compare Claude later. It's night and day.
3) The prompt again, thought process and answer. I'll show 2nd prompt later.

Will also describe idea more intuitively later.

But o1 thought more like an engineer. It didn't take an equation from the internet and do a simple division like other models. It thought, calculated ...


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Read 16 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Aug 28
1) Fate of markets depends on $1B or $2B difference in $NVDA guide.

There are tons of whisper surveys. Some game them. A bear might answer too high. Or a bull answers too low.

But it seems Asian investors do have higher expectations than US investors. Will Oct guide really ...
2) matter?

After hours prob. Or days or even weeks. But unless BW cycle or LT AI growth outlooks change, is it ultimately that imporant?

Not sure I'd present this framework. Implies $43B upside case Jan Q vs $31B cons (DC)! Unless something drastic ...
3) changes (fixes, ramps, capacities) that's unlikely. I know this post is well meant but FYI.

Why? Pre-glitch models had 500-600K BW GPUs F2H. But PRODUCTION not rev.

It's clearly lower now. But even if it's 300K F2H as in that model, it won't be incremental $11B rev. Plus ... Image
Read 5 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Jul 8
1) My 2¢ on "AI capex cycle has to pause soon right?" part X.

Even as an AI bull, this is a discussion I had to have with myself and people on and off this site. As soon as right after $NVDA Apr '23 Q blowout.

Conclusion 1st. Outlook improved after every broad overview of data.
2) And that wasn't about next few Q. If cyclical indicators were peaking, would be short today even if thot beat & raise next Q. But even defining cyclicality (inv, B:B, consumption vs shipments etc) needs change for AI. Much more later.

Little doubt ...
3) David Cahn @sequoia is smart, but there are prob more smart folks on the other side.

And even some very smart people often lean on what they know vs what they know they don't know. E.g. software margin. Or it's all rates.

Btw GS report reads bit ...
sequoiacap.com/article/ais-60…
Read 6 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
May 14
1) Maybe $MP did bottom. May buy more if close at this level.

One of many examples with potentially huge secular story. And is cyclicality reversing to tailwind?

Cyclical. Rare earth prices still edging up from Mar lows after -70% from '22 high (EVs renewables industrial etc).
Image
2) Now the interesting part. There's a chance MP is a robotic+ beneficiary.

What's Neodymium used for? Many applications e.g. Nd:YAG pump lasers. Nd has 1064 nm transition in Yttrium crystal.

More importantly Nd magnets are strongest rare earth magnets. Super important for ... Image
3) well, critical electromechanical tech, including EVs, turbines but now coming AI robots and military hardware (e.g. actuators as mentioned earlier).

"Humanoid robots accelerated into reality with AI are likely to utilize multiple per unit magnetic ...
Read 4 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
May 11
1) $AAPL has closed in on an agreement with @OpenAI to use the startup's technology on the iPhone, part of a broader push to bring AI features to its devices (BN).

Via @theinformation: OpenAI sees assistants with voice and visual capabilities as potentially transformative as ...
Image
2) the smartphone.

"The technology is another step in @sama's quest to ultimately develop a highly responsive AI akin to the virtual assistant in the film "Her," and enable existing voice assistants like Apple's Siri to be more useful."

OpenAI may preview upgraded AI "at an ... Image
3) "event as soon as Monday, which would help it get ahead of a slew of AI announcements from its rival $GOOGL later in the week, one of the people said."

Exponential again. What will gen 2 (or 5) agents do?

Number of other products under development ...
Read 5 tweets
QF Research Profile picture
Jan 25, 2023
1) $324M of $3.9B of $TSLA OI was FSD recognition.

Most didn't model. +1.5% GM impact. And there goes EPS beat vs "company compiled" consensus.

Inventory $12.8B vs $10.3B Q3 and $5.8B Q4 '21. Big jump Q/Q and huge jump Y/Y in days.

Many ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) more details ... forward comments usually don't matter much. Especially if Elon says bullish things (just calibrate his past comments).

If he concedes any downside metrics? Pay attention.

Independent analysis with incoming data by far most relevant.
3) Non-GAAP EPS $1.19 (includes FSD) vs "company compiled" cons $1.10 and Bberg cons $1.12.

Ex-FSD just meets company compiled and misses Bloomberg.

Taxes only $276M so several ¢. Ex-lower taxes misses both.

Not too important.

Where do margins and volumes meet going forward?
Read 5 tweets

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