1) I respect @garyblack. He deals with facts tho may disagree with analysis.
Here's $TSLA '23 sales and OP est in same format (no updates for US/EU price cuts yet).
'23 cons rev $109B (+33% Y/Y). Cons OP $19B or 17% OM.
~ 10-20% price cuts ...
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
Here's $TSLA '23 sales and OP est in same format (no updates for US/EU price cuts yet).
'23 cons rev $109B (+33% Y/Y). Cons OP $19B or 17% OM.
~ 10-20% price cuts ...
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1613870305235337217
2) flows directly to bottom line (assuming all else equal for now e.g. opex unchanged).
It's tough for OM not to decline 50% or more even if units grow > 50% (and I'm doubtful).
I.e. EPS could easily fall 50%.
After every price cut there's a quick orders spike. Unknowns ...
It's tough for OM not to decline 50% or more even if units grow > 50% (and I'm doubtful).
I.e. EPS could easily fall 50%.
After every price cut there's a quick orders spike. Unknowns ...
3) dominate after that.
Reminder orders had to double (or more) 1H '23 just to make estimates given depleted backlog (meant Q4 orders were as low as ~200-250K).
Now even if order run rate double (we'll see) profitability falls something in order of ~50%.
Reminder orders had to double (or more) 1H '23 just to make estimates given depleted backlog (meant Q4 orders were as low as ~200-250K).
Now even if order run rate double (we'll see) profitability falls something in order of ~50%.
https://twitter.com/ResearchQf/status/1598393010697670656
4) Gary must realize this isn't correct way to view '23 consensus since most estimates are stale.
Avg $TSLA '23 EPS post 1/13 is $3.88.
Avg '23 GM is 22.1% (too high IMO).
Big dispersion. Will change with more updates.
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
Avg $TSLA '23 EPS post 1/13 is $3.88.
Avg '23 GM is 22.1% (too high IMO).
Big dispersion. Will change with more updates.
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1615166607520669696
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
