Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Commodities

Most recents (24)

Welcome to week 2 of 📈Global Recession: Is Everyone Wrong?📉

Last week was all about analysis. This week, it's all about capital allocation...

First up, 1 of the most respected energy traders on the planet, @AndurandPierre with @RaoulGMI on everything #commodities.

🌎 Crisis?
When there is a commodity crisis, the first countries to experience major distress are emerging markets...

+ As @RaoulGMI notes, $USD in shortage and going up at the same time that commodities are going up.

"That is the worst scenario ever for emerging markets..."
Ok, so where are we right now? Is a global crisis imminent? If so, how imminent?

"It will come, there's no way out unfortunately..."


"I think in the next 20 months..." @AndurandPierre
Read 4 tweets
No way of knowing of course, and in the end, our opinions have no value.

What are the facts we currently have and on which we should base our acts upon instead of mere opinions?


#uranium #u3o8 #nuclear #investing #commodities
-> Broad market is in a downtrend and the expectation is that rallies will be sold
-> #Uranium sector equities are showing momentary relative weakness
-> Spot price is showing relative strength
-> Long term trend in U leaders is mostly fully intact
Best way for an investor who has no means of timing the market, is to scale back in gently. It is to remember though that the possible downside is still quite large if the sector stays correlated to broad market.
Read 6 tweets
Medium term investors buying the dip should act with serious caution, bear market dipping becomes a serious capital loss exercise. Understand the wider liquidity flow issues at play, avoid becoming the victim. Most inexperienced investors will struggle with the losses.

Decoupling from contagion takes time, the period of time will be shorter assuming the #uranium spot moves above $65 while equities price in $45 or longer if the spot contages lower as well.

50-70% down from recent 7 month highs continues to be a compelling accummulation zone
Fools buy the 15 dips in a bear market and self destruct 80% of their capital.
Those of us who built up 25-45% dry powder over the last 9 months have the resources to deploy into the next cycle bottoms that will multiply our capital by 10x plus.
Read 6 tweets
Weekly Summary - May 4th

Here's another weekly summary for all of my investments. Week-over-week has seem some nasty returns over the last few weeks with this market, but hopefully we'll see a turnaround and some pumps now that we're in May. Check it out!

2/ First is @tombfinance and the returns on $Tshare / $FTM LP. There's A LOT going on with the $Tomb. The LP APR and $Tshare price declined a lot last month, but there is a lot of utility being released this month. April's total however saw an increase from March, so good news! Image
3/ @HectorDAO_HEC continues to be boring, which worked quite well for them during the downtrend. Price is relatively stable. The team is really investing a LOT in the market downturn, which will pay dividends nicely in an upturn. I'm liking how the team is building and investing. Image
Read 17 tweets
1/ Dear all, many among you have asked me about my opinion on #oil, #logistics, #pipelines, price movements and a reality check on the #german #embargo plans. So I decided to make another explanatory thread. Grab a beer, this may take a while to read.
2/ It has often been said that oil is a global #commodity that travels on the seas. That view is not wrong, but incomplete. In fact, much oil is shipped by pipelines, on all continents. For an imcomplete but illustrative overview, see…
3/ Most pipelines either distribute incoming seaborne supplies to inland consumers (e.g., refineries), or they route domestically produced oil to seaports where it is loaded on #tankers.
Read 25 tweets
It's weekend and it's the end of the month. The #markets are closed.

So there is the perfect time to analyze the #momentum & relative #strength of the markets.

This information is relevant for all #investors, but especially for #trend #followers 📈📈📈


The #momentum of the markets are one of the most powerful forces in the evolution of the #asset #prices.

The #reversion to the mean is the opposite force, which is equally powerful. Momentum works on a short and medium term (up to 3 to 5 years).
There is a ton of academic research related to the momentum and the benefits of using it and relative strength. But presenting it this is not the purpose of this #thread.

Relative strength is actually a comparison between the #momentum of two or more #markets.
Read 35 tweets
History Repeats, Are we Listening ?

A Thread 🧵on Economic Cycles, Past & Present, What we Know and What we Do Not.

#Economics #Commodities #recession

@SahilKapoor @virtual_kg @avasthiniranjan @nsitharaman @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @riteshmjn @bloombergquint @PauloMacro
We are in a cycle of historical oscillation

Economic instability driven by a pathogen, reminiscent 2018; the outbreak of the Spanish Flu.

More than a century later, where do we go from here?

As a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with wars and economic shocks, are we at the beginning of a new supercycle of history?

What is an economic cycle, or oscillation ?
Read On....
Read 19 tweets
Thread 🧵 CTAs are having a good year so far with Top 50 +12.8% YTD, according to BarclayHedge. But let's not forget that from 2004 to 2021, top 20 CTAs returned about 2.5% on the average.

"But, but, but, convexity, alternatives, etc." #commodities #CTA #trading $SPX
This is another form of tail risk hedging but with higher intrinsic risk than using other tail risk protection method. The 80s and 90s aren't coming back, when CTAs using TF discipline profited from naïve TA traders in commodity futures. Nowadays there are no such fools en masse.
CTAs nowadays are the parties who assume hedging risk of producers. Producers have become way more sophisticated then in 80s and 90s. They won't pay fortunes to hedge when they are the ones who know the market direction. The game for CTAs is difficult.
Read 8 tweets
Zug ist ein zentraler Rohstoffhandelsplatz für den russischen Staat & #Putins Oligarchen. Was wissen wir und was hat die Zuger #Opposition in den letzten Wochen auf politischer Ebene gemacht? #Ukraine #ZG #commodities🧵 (1/10)
Es gibt kaum gesicherten Informationen, Schätzungen gehen jedoch davon aus, dass 80% der russischen Rohstoffe über die #CH (#Zug und #Genf)gehandelt werden. Für #Putin sind diese Einnahmen essentiell, 50% des Staatshaushaltes kommen aus Rohstoffeinnahmen. (2/10)
Bereits vor der Invasion reichten die @AlternativeZG eine Interpellation ein, welche von der Zuger Regierung eine #Haltung zu #Nordstream2 forderte und wissen wollte, welche direkten Kontakte zwischen den Behörden und russischen Firmen stattfinden.… (3/10)
Read 12 tweets
1/ Préparez prochainement à une rotation de grande ampleur vers la #value. Car en effet elle est inévitable. La question n'est pas de savoir quand ça se produira mais quand. M. le Marché n'aime pas le changement. Les investisseurs #FOMO l'apprendront à leurs dépens. #inflation
2/ Ce que j'en suis sûr, c'est que cette rotation vers la #value se fera dans un contexte dévastateur pour les investisseurs qui bercent naïvement dans le #FED Put. Malheureusement, ce dernier laissera place à un FED Collar.
3/ $TSLA $AAPL $FB $AMZN $MSFT & Co ont tellement profité des politiques monétaires très accommodantes des banques centrales. Et peu importe si leurs fondamentaux intrinsèques sont bons ou pas. Je m'attends à des gros dégagements, et donc un transfert de richesse vers la #value.
Read 15 tweets
President #Putin’s Full Remarks at the #Oil for #Ruble announcement | The Vineyard of the Saker

#Russia #oil #gas #commodities…
“Today I have signed an Executive Order that establishes the rules for #trade in Russian #NaturalGas with so-called unfriendly states. We offer counterparties from such countries a clear and transparent scheme. To purchase Russian natural gas, they must open ruble accounts…”
What we are witnessing here (potentially) is nothing less than the gradual conversion of the Russian ruble from a “soft” to a “hard” currency. Students in my international business class will appreciate the significance of this.
Read 9 tweets
Em 30/03/2022 a #Alemanha emitiu o primeiro alerta à população e á #indústria: reduzam o consumo de #gásnatural. O racionamento será inevitável caso o país não pague em #rublos pelo combustível importado da #Rússia.
Ainda que #Putin ofereça um prazo para aditamento dos contratos e ajustes financeiros e monetários para pagamentos de #commodities em #rublos, a Rússia não voltará atrás nessa exigência.
A #Europa precisa preparar-se urgentemente para pagar aos russos também em rublos pelo trigo, fertilizantes, madeira, alumínio, aço e titânio.
Read 13 tweets
(1/17) We've been talking a lot about #carbonmarkets — which has felt like a shift for some of our trad #commodities, #metals, #privacy and #tech listeners. We wanted to share how we see #smartermarkets as the thread stringing them together, in this 🧵:
(3/17) Globally, we've had since the 1800s to understand commodity #markets. #CarbonTrading didn't start until 1997 when 180 countries signed the #KyotoProtocol. With it — 4 types of #carboncredits were created: AAU, RMU, ERU and CER.
Read 17 tweets
In May of 2021, @EconTodd made a note of that morning's @WSJ headline during his interview with @stefan_wieler of @axpo — Russian troops had amassed on #Ukraine️'s border. Buchholz asked Wieler what that could mean for #gas and #oil prices.
@EconTodd @WSJ @stefan_wieler @axpo You can listen to his episode here for a little refresher:
Around the 20 minute mark, @stefan_wieler remarks on the lack of real-time #data in the #commodities space and the difficulty it creates for the #globaleconomy at large.
Read 5 tweets
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.

Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Read 7 tweets
Day 8 #Russian stock cycle bottom theme, more stocks added to the negative buy list ....we are locked in and loaded. We will still locate more options not suspended from buying, to slowly scale into.
Any positive outcome would result in 3-30x moves in the suspended #Russian opportunity set, a nice balance against long #commodities.
We are very happy to be locked into the cheapest #Nickel play globally as the spot surges to unprecedented levels.
Read 3 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents "Convoy" Tuesday at 1:15pm PT.

Stay tuned here for live updates!

#macro #markets #inflation #geopolitics #Fed #Canada #RussiaUkraine #rates #recession #stocks #bonds #commodities
Jeffrey Gundlach: "Convoy" has two meanings. Inspired by Canadian truckers go angry enough to take things in their own hands.
Jeffrey Gundlach: The other meaning is the runaway convoy of the commodity market.
Read 61 tweets
Recently #commodities are reflecting a knee-jerk reaction to the conflict b/w Russia and Ukraine, but it's the longer-term neglect that's created the foundation for profoundly higher prices for longer.
Let's look at exploration and capex for industrial metals.

Short thread.
Global exploration budgets for #copper, #nickel and #zinc peaked in 2012 at $6.4B after a run in commodity prices, surpassing 2008 high of $5.2B. As prices fell from the high in 2011, exploration spending cooled to an avg. of $2.7B/yr since 2015.
2006-2015: $40B
2016-2020: $13B
Capex spend is similar. Aggregating capex for select major to mid-cap producers shows a clear lack of investment vs. prev. yrs, despite increasing sales in recent yrs. Notable is cons. estimates this trend to continue through 2023.
2006-2015: 13.4%
2016-2023E: 8.6%
Read 4 tweets
Are you the speculator running to #oil stocks post the 15x rise post $125 spot?

Or are you the investor running to a #countrycyclebottom post 95% plus falls?

Over a 5 year time horizon where do you think the smart money went? The deflated expectations theme or the inflated?
Stupid capital flows have commenced arrival into #Commodities, particularly #oil, consistent with a blow off top, run after the shiny object formation. This can continue for a while prior to the peak occurring, we are in scale down mode as this unfolds. +50% = sell 70%.
#oil services stocks will run this week they have further torque.

The likes of $RIG can double in a month
Read 4 tweets
Na última semana, vimos discussões sobre impactos da invasão russa no comércio internacional. Apontou-se para a área de combustíveis e #commodities do setor agrário, que são realmente riscos imediatos para a população mundial. Mas os riscos para as cadeias produtivas vão além 1/
Há alguns anos, pesquiso sobre minerais críticos não-energéticos e seu papel na política internacional. Me perguntei nos últimos dias como o rompimento do comércio bilateral EUA-Rússia poderia afetar os próprios Estados Unidos nesse setor e busquei dados relativos ao assunto 2/
12 categorias minerais são importadas da 🇷🇺 pelos 🇺🇸: barita; escândio; potassa; crômio; abrasivos manufaturados (alumina, carbeto de silício, abrasivos metálicos); germânio; alumínio; diamante industrial; metais do grupo da platina; silício; mica natural; zircônio e háfnio 3/
Read 13 tweets
(THREAD) Como é, na prática, o processo inflacionário das #Commodities?

Sabemos que o conflito #UcraniaRussia trará inflação em vários setores, principalmente em #energia e #alimentos; mas como isto será dará na prática? Segue o 🧵
O 1º ponto importantíssimo é: O preço da Commodities NÃO é o preço da Bolsa! O derivativo negociado na bolsa é um dos referenciais para formação de preço e uma importante ferramenta de hedge⤵️
2º - Os preços das commodities se movem em cima de fundamentos de oferta, demanda e estoques, mas não é só isso, consideram também, o percentual de participação no mercado doméstico versus as exportações/importações⤵️
Read 14 tweets
🔥 Carvão na China

Os preços do carvão térmico na #China registraram sua maior perda diária em três meses nesta sexta-feira, depois que Pequim estabeleceu tetos de preços, apesar do caos no mercado global de #commodities depois que a Rússia invadiu a Ucrânia⤵️
A queda dos preços ocorreu depois que a estatal chinesa colocou limites nos preços de referência de carvão de médio e longo prazo de 5.500 kcal em portos e minas e disse que interviria se os preços fossem além dessa faixa⤵️
O teto de preço doméstico da China também esfriou o comércio marítimo de carvão, já que os comerciantes estão relutantes em aceitar importações com preços mais altos. "Os preços da #commodity precisam cair mais de US$ 10 a tonelada para serem competitivos com o carvão chinês"
Read 6 tweets

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