Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Commodities

Most recents (24)

#uranium is consumed each year, while #gold is stored in more &more bars,coins & jewellery since centuries.

=Gold stockpile has been growing since centuries,while the uranium stockpile has been decreasing since early 2018 and reached critical low levels now

#gold is for protection against value loss of fiat money.

So are all hard assets in LT, with that difference that other hard assets have a use / are consumed in society, while gold not really.
#oil, #uranium…need replacement bc they are consumed,gold not.

Think about it.
#oil, #uranium are used to create energy for💡,heating,transport,industry,… & when it has been used, you need to replace it with new oil & uranium (also see comment about difference between oil & uranium)
#gold on the other hand…(next post)

Read 8 tweets
1/ Hey frends! Have you heard the news? @PythNetwork is now officially live on the @injective #mainnet, bringing a whole new level of possibilities for #dApps and the #Injective community!
Let's dive into what this integration means and how it impacts the world of #DeFi🌐
#INJ Image
Pyth is an #oracle network that revolutionizes the way real-world data is brought #onchain
Through its innovative low-latency pull oracle design, Pyth publishes continuous real-world #data, inc. prices, for various markets spanning equities, #commodities, forex pairs & #crypto
With this integration, #Injective #dApps now have seamless access to #Pyth's #onchain #data, empowering #developers and users alike to leverage real-world #asset information within the #blockchain environment. This is a game-changer for Injective's #ecosystem! 🆙
Read 13 tweets
It's impossible to retweet this too many times.
- The #RoadOfDeath And a #DarkPlace | Apr 8
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa Image
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa #Rand Co | Jan 25
- 'The key objective described in the doc is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent'
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
Read 13 tweets
Thought of the day: Predicting cashflow generation 3-4 years out is a huge value add when selecting fresh asymmetric themes. For #commodities one is generally predicting spot price reversion to the mean. Entry cap should be <1x CF 3yrs out, our best performers <0.2x.

$IREN entry cap <$80m .....peak CF > $250m

$BTU < $110m.....peak CF > $1.5bn

$RIG < $400m....peak CF > $2bn

$CKA < $20m....>$400m

$AEE < $15m.....>$250m

$WKT < $60m....>$120m
The fresh asymmetric themes return matrix over 5 years:

Entry <0.25x CF = 15-50x returns $AEE $BTU $RIG $CKA $IREN

0.5x = 8-15x $WKT

1x = 4-8x

2x = 2-4x

4x = <2x
Read 5 tweets
#Lithium is falling off the cliff like we said it would 6 months ago > 80% cash margins always do. Beware of those stating outperformance, at this point, review the previous cycle bottom for an indication of what's in store.
Down 48%, will it stop at -75%

Those in #commodities for a few cycles know that > 80% cash margins never last as they either kill demand and/or stimulate supply (particularly with an incoming recession that kills durable good demand)

Read 3 tweets
Thought of the day: Recency bias from #commodity peak when everything in the rear vision mirror looks "solid" is an optical illusion, around the bend a cliff is coming into sight a "recession", often stockprices drop 75% plus. Demand can get slaughtered at the margin.
#lithium & #coal are great case studies for those of our followers who don't understand nothing is rare at 80% cash margins and 20% cost.

While balance sheets are materially improved on 2020 levels, so few 95% corrections, but 50-65% are still reality with 75% spot falls from peaks.
Read 4 tweets
Thought of the day: How many don't understand they own #cyclical equities? And the cycle peaked out in 2022 for 90% and contagion is the order of the day in 2023? #natgas #lumber #coal #oil #uranium #ironore #tin #nickel
#cyclical means you exit as the cycle matures .....that was 2022 if not 2021 for 80% of #commodities. Then 60% will experience a 55-75% fall in spot prices. Then one revisits in 2H 2023 or 2024 for reentry. If one holds through the cycle they don't understand what they own.
In short stupidity holds

#Natgas stocks post the $10 peak.....bottom < $2

#Coal stocks post the $450 plus ton peaks.....bottom < $130
Read 3 tweets
#Uranium cycle realties:

- multiple 50% sector drawdowns

- explorers can drawdown 80% intra cycle

- it's unlikely to swim against the pack of other #commodities

- the constant reloading of spot supply with lack of utility buyers creates uncertain in price discovery

- another 20% downside can't be ruled out for this down-leg, 35% plus for high beta burning matches (2-6 months of further pain)

- the next upleg (if backed by $65-75 spot) will provide 2-3x returns for the sector & 6-9x for high beta burning matches (4-18months out)

So in the context of S&P500 3000 target 🎯 what will that mean for your favourite #uranium plays bottoming:

$AGE 2.1c
$BMN 90c
$GLO $2
$LOT 12c
$UUUU $4
$BOE $1.40
$PDN 41c
Read 4 tweets
$AEE to provide clarity on possible outcomes: #uranium 3yr returns
At 56c = 2.0x 2025/26 CF > 3x return

At 28c = 1.0x 2025/26 CF > 7x return

At 14c = 0.5x > 14x return

Plenty of incoming catalysts over 2023 and 2024.
Note assuming Haggan coming on line in 2028, then the Cap/CF at 28c drops to <0.3x = >20x upside
The best time to buy #AuraEnergy was at 2.6c, the 2nd best time will be at the incoming cycle lows as #Equitymarkets & #Commodities bottom out. When will this be you ask? Likely between 3-9 months post the Pivot.

What are we doing?
Scaling into plays trading on 200% CF 3yr out
Read 3 tweets
To call the bottom of #commodities #uranium in 2023, one must call the market bottom 1st, if you have no idea on that, then you will accummulate too early, as many are doing.
Note: under aggressive #contagion conditions 95% of #commodities are heavily correlated together.

The 5% will likely be extremely short on inventory levels, with lack of short term supply response.

#uranium spot market receives reloading of up to 1.5mlbs per month...
...therefore a truly real supply shortage is when Utilities are forced to buy over 1.5mlbs per month, with other buyers taking the total to over 2.5mlbs per month, then the spot price will actually trend higher. Until this happens (or a sustained risk on period later in 2024)...
Read 6 tweets
#Biden backs strength of #banking system after collapse of #SVB, #SignatureBank | Mar 13
- When fed auths bailed out depositors in insolvent lenders SVB (NASDAQ:SIVB) and #SignatureBank on Monday,
Joe sought to reassure the public Image
#Ukraine-#BanderasBox opened.
#RAND Co | Jan 25
- There is an urgent need for #resources to flow into the national econ, especially the #banking system. Only European countries bound by #EU and #NATO commitments will be able to provide them
#SVB #SignatureBank #BanderasBox.
#Rand Co | Jan 25
- The key objective is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
Read 38 tweets
2/🧵 Looking at the latest @CNNBusines “Fear & Greed Index”, the markets are still maintaining their GREED readings on the back of last weeks Thurs - Fri #StockMarket reversal rally that was triggered (all, or in-part) on the back of @federalreserve (non-voting) member Bostic’s…… Image
3/🧵 Here are the rest of of the “7 Fear & Greed Indicators” (per @CNNBusiness): 🐂📈 vs. 🐻📉

— Market Momentum (Greed)
— Stock Price Strength (Extreme Greed)
— Stock Price Breadth (Neutral)
— Put/Call Ratio (Greed)
— Market Volatility (Neutral)
— Safe Haven Demand (Greed)
—…… ImageImageImage
4/🧵 Here is an update on #StockMarket breath, as we did see a pause on selling pressure as market breadth picked up Thursday into Friday’s close… $SPY $SPX

🟣 >20 Day (Current: 38%, Previous: 18%) 📉
🔵 >50 Day (Current: 51%, Previous: 44%) 📉
🟠 >200 Day (Current: 60%,…… Image
Read 19 tweets
🗓 Daily #Macro & Market Recap 📰 Let's dive into a quick thread recapping some of today's market moving events 🗞, data 📝, & charts 📈📉 for Friday (03/03/23)… 🧵/👇🏼

$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅

#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
1/🧵 Daily #StockMarket Sector Performance:

🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
2/🧵 Daily 🇺🇸 🏦 Treasury Market & Currency Performance: 💵💴💶💷

$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅

#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
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[1/12] To understand what else is needed to create a financial future based on #blockchain technology, just consider what the #Interledger #Protocol was NOT designed to do. 😉

[A #Thread 🧵] Source:
[2/12] 🤔 What problem does #ILP genuinely address?

Just like the #internet will never agree on a single #protocol to fix everything, the world will never agree on a single #blockchain or ledger [#DLT].

What must be resolved is:
🔹 Addressing
🔹 Fragmentation The Interledger
[3/12] ❗️ To make it easy and #ELI5-friendly here is everything in one picture:

When Alice wants to send money to @bob_way, #ILP will perform all the heavy lifting so she doesn't have to worry about #wallet addresses (#PubKeys) and the like. Source:
Read 14 tweets
Hoje completa 1 ano da guerra na #Ucrania, como que está a situação atualmente? A Reuters preparou alguns gráfico bem legais

1) A segurança do #Dollar
A divisa mostrou as razões o porto seguro do mundo! Mesmo após a queda, frente as máximas, subiu 8% desde o início da guerra⤵️
2) Custo de #energia

O custo do #naturalgas disparou 400% em duas semanas após a invasão, chegando a 700% em agosto; felizmente o inverno foi + ameno e o bloco encontrou novos fornecedores, trazendo o custo novamente para 50 MWh ⤵️
3) Alimentos

Os preços das #commodities agrícolas, que já estava em alta desde 2021, dispararam novamente após a invasão. O index de alimentos da ONU disparou 14,3% ano passado e já havia subido 28% em 2021

A pressão está diminuindo, mas o clima tem preocupado a produção⤵️
Read 6 tweets
1) $324M of $3.9B of $TSLA OI was FSD recognition.

Most didn't model. +1.5% GM impact. And there goes EPS beat vs "company compiled" consensus.

Inventory $12.8B vs $10.3B Q3 and $5.8B Q4 '21. Big jump Q/Q and huge jump Y/Y in days.

Many ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) more details ... forward comments usually don't matter much. Especially if Elon says bullish things (just calibrate his past comments).

If he concedes any downside metrics? Pay attention.

Independent analysis with incoming data by far most relevant.
3) Non-GAAP EPS $1.19 (includes FSD) vs "company compiled" cons $1.10 and Bberg cons $1.12.

Ex-FSD just meets company compiled and misses Bloomberg.

Taxes only $276M so several ¢. Ex-lower taxes misses both.

Not too important.

Where do margins and volumes meet going forward?
Read 5 tweets
1) Total global ETF holdings of #gold has gone sideways despite gold +19% since early Nov.

System akin to compressed spring. Less pressure?
Spring bounces.

Δ largely $GLD driven. What if US investors traders actually buy?

1 more chart today.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities
2) Cost of $SLV puts vs calls (3M 25 delta) 10D MA not budging despite #silver +33% in several M.

Incredible (to me). And never happened in history of this data.

Whenever silver rose as much since '15 secular low, cost of calls shifted ~8-10 (implied ...
3) vol) points higher than cost of puts.

Even smaller rallies (Mar '16 Apr '20 Nov '21 etc) produced a big shift of > 4 points wrt cost of calls vs puts.

So this one time we (options traders) refuse to fall for it and pay up for calls.

Anyways physical analogies are not ...
Read 5 tweets
1) Largest day of $SLV inflows (+20M oz) by far since #silver squeeze!

Positioning was more bearish despite #gold +19% #silver +31% in few months.

Little buying power was used. If anything there was large selling vs price reference points ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) over last few Y, as well as variety of unusual technical readings that just don't occur after significant rallies.

"Yes there WILL be pullbacks, but I've mumbled could be shorter and shallower than one might usually expect."

Data implies unusually ...
3) high number of sidelined bulls waiting for that correction that might not come. Or happen from much higher levels. This matched broad sentiment that many wanted/expected a correction.

SLV flow today supportive of data. Could barely wait a few hours and few % to buy.

Will ...
Read 7 tweets
1) Leading economic indicators down 10M in a row and -7.4% Y/Y.

In or entering recession (Mar '01) every time since '60.

"Cliché but true - every cycle is different. A few bad job prints would seal the deal."

"This time is different" often ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities Image
2) dangerous but we're prob not in recession now or entering within a M(?).

Consider LEI components. Shown is 6M change.

Soft component (consumer expectation) largest negative contribution. Employment component almost flat.

I've been watching for sudden weakness in high ... Image
3) frequency economic data since last summer.

While some data weakened, if I were told last summer that jobless claims would be near lows and there wasn't a big downside NFP next 6M, I would've said very unlikely.

Still "a few bad job prints would seal the deal?" I think yes.
Read 4 tweets
1) Quick comment on #silver.

Silver -5.7% from recent peak. So far normal noise in both bull and bear mkts.

Also 17% below 14D 2 St Dev band. Last time? 6/13/22.

And 6/16/21 when 2 St Dev band was this narrow.

Both were during bear markets.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) So will soon test whether this is that shorter and shallower bull mkt correction positioning and technical indicators now suggest.

Note big differences already today. Miners outperforming vs underperforming (e.g. 6/13/22 6/21/21).

#Gold down small vs -$50 the prior days etc.
3) This post already somewhat outdated btw. Silver now down 4.5% from recent high. Gold is barely down.

Btw silver vol is 30%. So weekly vol is 4.2%. And this pullback nothing compared to what often happens even in secular bull markets.

Real question? Is this is a new bull mkt?
Read 7 tweets
China in 5 charts (1/5)

What drives overall China equities?

When China Internet $KWEB outperforms MSCI China (grey line), its often positive for China equities $MCHI (orange line).

#China Image
China in 5 charts (2/5)

How does China equities perform when USD weakens?

When USD weakens, China equities strengthens.

Inverted $DXY in grey and $MCHI in orange here.

#China #macro Image
China in 5 charts (3/5)

Is China or US equities better in a weakening USD environment?

When USD is weak, China equities $MCHI tends to outperform US equities.

Inverted $DXY in grey and $MCHI over $SPY in orange here.

#China #macro Image
Read 5 tweets
#Russian #Ruble relaunched linked to #Gold and #Commodities | 1 Apr 2022
- With Russia’s central bank having just profoundly altered the international trade and monetary system by linking the Russian ruble to both gold and commodities…
#GoldReserves in #Russia remained unchanged at 2298.53 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2022 from 2298.53 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2022.…
#Fiat #Money-[#USD]: What It Is, How It Works, Example, Pros & Cons
- is a government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it.…
Read 27 tweets
@PwC @PwCUS just released their 2023 Annual Global CEO Survey — here's a thread of the top takeaways from the survey, including the fact that "40% of CEO's don't think their companies will be 'economically viable' in the next 10yrs"... 🧵/👇🏼

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics
1/🧵 "Roughly 40% flagged the transition to new energy sources and supply chain disruption." @PwC @PwCUS

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech
2/🧵 "#inflation and #macroeconomic volatility stand out more prominently than other key threats in the next 12 months than over the next five years." @PwC @PwCUS

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech #CPI
Read 11 tweets
1) I respect @garyblack. He deals with facts tho may disagree with analysis.

Here's $TSLA '23 sales and OP est in same format (no updates for US/EU price cuts yet).

'23 cons rev $109B (+33% Y/Y). Cons OP $19B or 17% OM.

~ 10-20% price cuts ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities ImageImage
2) flows directly to bottom line (assuming all else equal for now e.g. opex unchanged).

It's tough for OM not to decline 50% or more even if units grow > 50% (and I'm doubtful).

I.e. EPS could easily fall 50%.

After every price cut there's a quick orders spike. Unknowns ...
3) dominate after that.

Reminder orders had to double (or more) 1H '23 just to make estimates given depleted backlog (meant Q4 orders were as low as ~200-250K).

Now even if order run rate double (we'll see) profitability falls something in order of ~50%.
Read 4 tweets

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