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PM at large institutions over 20Y covering equities/macro. Investments decisions = your responsibility. What isn’t forbidden by laws of physics is mandatory.
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Jul 23 7 tweets 3 min read
1) Another view of 4M decline in LEI.

Not 4M in a row but % change in 4M. Perhaps -0.6%, -0.8%, +0.1%, -1.2% is worse than -0.2%, -0.3%, -0.1%, -0.4%?

All priors when 4M change was as low led to a #recession within a ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) few Q's (or already in recession in some cases) since the '60's.

Interestingly, this approach dramatically shortened lead time to '08 recession vs LEI down 4M in a row. Signal kicked in Nov '07 instead Jul '06.

Apply your interpretations.

Jobless claims 4W MA rose 70K ...
Jul 10 6 tweets 3 min read
1) 1Y breakeven (1Y forward) < 2.5%, a 52W low and below when #inflation was transitory in ‘21.

1Y breakeven (current) 3.8% vs 6.3% in Mar. When Jun/Jul 8-9% CPI rolls off and sub 3% #’s roll in, 1Y inflation expectations will be 2’s % by Aug!

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities Image 2) Will change with data but consistent with current inflation swaps pricing early ‘23 as discussed.

Also Citi’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index fell by largest amount in its history in Jun.

Prefer this to NY Fed Supply Chain Pressure Index. Citi includes inventory data … Image
Jul 2 5 tweets 3 min read
1) $GLD down a bit but $GDX $GDXJ strong Fri.

Many backtests with various conditions/timeframes improves at least ST risk/reward (i.e. not guarantee).

Even in May there was a ST rally.

And $SLV < -1.5% but $SIL > +2%?

$SPY $QQQ $TLT #Gold #Commodities
2) Also looks bullish tho N=only 3 since ‘10.

Given how oversold/multiple indicators showing signs of capitulation, prob better to have these than not.

As @TheDailyGold mentioned, % of $HUI stocks above 200D MAs was 0% Thur.

Besides ‘13 very low % …
Jul 1 5 tweets 3 min read
1) #Fed funds futures update.

Pricing only 0.78 hikes over 2 meetings (Dec '22/Feb '23). So basically 100% chance of Dec or Feb pause and ~20% chance of 0 hikes after Nov.

Implied Dec rate 3.31% vs 3.78% peak few W ago.

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) Notice small prob of a cut in Mar and significant prob of cuts every meeting thereafter?

What happens if ISM < 50 within few M (fed hasn't hiked with ISM < 50 since 70's)?

OIS 2Y-1M #yield spread 6M forward (1M is decent proxy for overnight rate) ...
Jun 30 7 tweets 3 min read
1) South Korea's chip stockpiles increased by most in more than four years (BN).

The Y/Y spike in chip inventory in '18 was followed by a cyclical downturn. Excesses are bigger this cycle.

This is inventory just at ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image 2) manufacturers of chips.

Their customers, customers of customers etc also have too much inv (PC, smartphone, assemblers, contract manufacturers, retailers etc) and are cutting orders precisely when chip manufacturers have too much inv.

What shortages?

Undershipment has ...
Jun 29 5 tweets 3 min read
1) One more. Richmond #Fed manufacturing survey lead time lowest since '19.

Don't forget these are diffusion indices so ~ rate of change vs absolute levels but a cliff both ways.

Orders, shipments, lead times etc ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) sound familiar? That huge inventory stocking cycle now likely morphing into huge destocking cycle.

"I.e. no shortages? Downturn inevitable if preceded by inventory overbuild.

CEO: why do we have so much inventory when we can (order) parts tomorrow?"
Jun 28 4 tweets 3 min read
1) People intending to vacation by car fell to 22.7% in June (BN).

Lowest seasonally in > 4Y.

"36% of Americans surveyed this month intend to take a vacation within the next six months, the weakest June reading any ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image 2) Y in data going back over 40 years, excluding 2020"

So at least some demand destruction may continue.

Avg US unleaded price was $4.88 yesterday vs $5.02 peak Jun 13.

But gas price spiked end of May into Jun. So avg Jun price MTD is $4.96 vs $4.56 ...
Jun 27 5 tweets 3 min read
1) Seeing many versions of #gold vs real #yield lately.

Here's 1Y corr between gold and 10Y real yield.

Yes more neg last decade or so. But corr only hit same level late '00 and '05 as yields were rising. Just before bull market began and ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities Image 2) as bull market accelerated late '05. Corr was also as high Aug '12 (but with gold and yield falling). Even then there was a ST rally.

But 24Y may be too short given possible regime changes.

Let's look at 1Y corr between gold/nominal 10Y rate since '75. Not perfect but ... Image
Oct 5, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
1) % of $XAU stocks > their 200D MAs has been 0% 10D in a row (went to 3% for 2D after this tweet). $GDX $GDXJ

So 10D MA of % of XAU stocks > 200D MA is also 0%.

Here are the days since '02 when this first occurred ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities 2) (or came very very close).

9/17/18 (0% 10D MA)
8/5/15 (1%)
11/10/14 (0%)
3/5/13 (0%)
5/16/12 (0%)
10/29/08 (0%)
5/24/05 (2%)
5/18/04 (0%)

Every date not far from a major IT or LT low with that BIG exception in '13 (see posts about '13 last 6M).

10D stayed at 0% in '13 ...
Feb 10, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
1) When I read articles about $gold or $silver, I begin a skeptic. Ronan Manly may be the most analytical person in the sector, but I don't know that (yet), and there is so much misinformation about this group.

The good news ...

bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-ma… 2) is that a quick Bloomberg back-of-the-envelope seems consistent with his broad conclusion.

As best as I can tell, his 28K tonne of ETF silver in London is less than total ETF holdings mostly because 1/7 SLV vaults is in NY and $PSLV is in Canada.

Taking a step back, ETF ...
Feb 5, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read
FT - $Silver surge could signal coming commodities boom. Serious mainstream press.

FT yesterday - "Food inflation concerns deepen as prices reach highest level since 2014."

Bloomberg Commodity Index BCOM goes back to 1960.

$SPY $QQQ #Commodities #Gold
ft.com/content/faef0b… 2) Sure like a 12Y downtrend reversed in December.

Agricultural commodities also did so on a linear chart in Dec. $DBA continues chugging along and has even more upside on a log chart if this is real.

Back to silver. Did silver break out vs. BCOM ...
Feb 4, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
1) $Gold down > 2% today after bumping against breakout level for 2W. Just couldn't do it even with that 1 day WSB $silver push. And now back in middle of that channel.

But there's a silver lining. Outperformance of both $XAU ...

2) (PM mining index) and silver today is pretty rare and at least a very ST positive.

Both silver and PM miners have much higher beta on both up and down days. And today was a big down day for gold.

This happened 23 times since 1996. Miners (XAU) were up the next day 18 times.
Feb 2, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
1) Today was EXACT opposite of 1/27/21 (closing $GME and most shorted index high).

$Nasdaq up 1.56% but its $TRIN was 2.04. Adv/dec >> up/down volume = high TRIN.

That's never happened since 1996 before today (just like 1/27).

Image 2) When Nasdaq is down big with low TRIN, Nasdaq bounced at least the next day 7/7 times.

How about strong Nasdaq with high TRIN? There aren't precedents close to today.

Let's try SPX. SPX was up 1.39% while NYSE TRIN was also high at 1.74.

That ...
Jan 27, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
1) A big one for the history books.

$Nasdaq -2.61% but Nasdaq $TRIN closed at 0.14!

This has never happened since 2000 before today. $GME volume was large, but this is much more than GME.

Before today, the lowest Nasdaq TRIN was 0.3 when Nasdaq ...

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $Gold Image 2) was down this much.

According to GS, yesterday was the worst alpha day in the history of L/S HFs. I've heard anecdotes of funds down 20%, 30% or more YTD. Today also had to bad.

Most shorted index GSCBMSAL was up another 9% today and 52% YTD. But ...
Dec 11, 2019 8 tweets 4 min read
So ... the large discrepancy between weak ADP and the huge upside in #NFP for November caused some consternation last Friday. For example, @JulianMI2 pointed out that
But I also noticed this comment - Thanksgiving timing effect "could be at least 100k" - attributed to @EconguyRosie via @carlquintanilla