There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🤯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)
Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
2. Kyiv in "3" days. Insane but plausible.
The most vulnerable place of the front is E391/M02 road - there are no towns on the way it should be used as a spine for all the offense.
300km to Kyiv makes it almost impossible to repeat the March trip.
500km front wont be easy.
3. Kharkiv. 3 scales of invasion
Wide arc. Sumy - Kharkiv - Kupiansk. Not for now.
Deep. Vovchansk - Velykyi Burluk - Kupiansk. Useless.
Straight. Urazovo - Kupiansk. Certainly
Kupiansk is a focal point for 🇷🇺 success.
The area is crucial for both sides.
5. Zaporizhzhia. Land to trade.
45500 km2 chunk of a hostile land, that requires a lot of troops to secure the area.
Front line of 160km allows and 3 targets to attack (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka) requires less forces than Donbass.
In a Year after the beginning of the war 🇷🇺 should not be able to sustain anything but infantry.
Dip in the equipment losses should could be enough to maintain enough stuff to replenish current losses with a reserves.
🇷🇺 is somewhere near of equilibrium point in gears.
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The Velykyi Burluk area sits on the watershed between the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers. Rugged terrain and sparse roads define the region, with strategic hilltop routes bypassing small settlements.
Russians have captured Milove, a narrow stretch along the border. This secures key ravines and threatens Ambarne, potentially opening a route into the next valley with multiple operational options.
The most promising move is uniting the Oskil foothold along the Verkhmia Dvurichkova River. The area isn’t great for vehicles, but drones can control it. That alone could force a Ukrainian "withdrawal".
Pokrovsk Sector Analysis
RU forces hold dominant terrain across the Vovcha basin. The axis toward Filia is collapsing incrementally. However, AFU retains positional control on the elevated northern bank - limiting RU freedom of maneuver in the valley. /1
A key Russian option is to secure the Zirka–Yalta triangle and flood it with drone operators. With stable ammo supply, this zone could influence the entire sector. It is relatively secure from AFU counterattacks, allowing sustained drone operations. /2
The Vovcha’s meandering course compounds AFU movement constraints. With Vesele’s defensive belt compromised, the southern bank becomes indefensible over time. AFU likely to conduct phased withdrawal to preserve force integrity. /3
The war is evolving into a series of endless pockets. Russia tested its drone-oriented strategy in Sudzha and is now scaling it across the entire front in the shadow of the drone "swarm". 1/
Ukraine relies on fortified strongholds. But the joints between these defensive zones create weak noman points. Russia identifies and exploits these seams with systematic uneven pressure.
2/
By applying steady pressure across the entire line, Russia prevents Ukraine from executing effective countermeasures, one way missions insures that the point will be secured. This allows incremental gains on the flanks and creates multiple protrusions - the “claws.”
3/
Pokrovsk is the most data-rich direction, as GSUA publishes detailed reports about enemy activities in the area.
Every evening, GSUA publishes attacks and losses, showing 5-8 casualties per attack, with a noticeable correlation.
The ratio of casualties to attacks started to change after March 20, as summertime began to affect the morning and evening reporting of data.
A lot of attacks have been occurring at dusk, that will diverge the data sets.
What about the comparison of absolute numbers?
Almost every third attack happens in Pokrovsk,
but only 20% of Ivans are reported from that direction, making it seem cost-effective.
That doesn’t match the visual evidence.
By the end of November, the future appeared grim. However, recent successful operations by the AFU have brought a glimmer of hope, stabilizing the front lines pushing back the enemy.
Despite these positive developments, the battle is far from over.
0/13
1/ After stabilizing the Kursk axis, Russia may shift its focus to Pokrovsk, aiming to secure the Malynivka road junction and the Udachne mine to sustain offensive momentum.
2/ Meanwhile, AFU are working to push Russian units beyond the Solona River and maintain control over the M04 and T0515 roads, which are critical for logistics and maneuverability.
Ukraine can also prepare some alternative path to M04 over the fields towards Dobropillia.