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Vitaly Profile picture
@M0nstas
Jan 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#TalkingPoint #mobilization
There are rising talks about Belarus involvement into the war.
My expectations ~100K would be added to 🇷🇺 forces.

With all the current forces it should make ~1M army.

The main question where all of them could be deployed.
Where 1M army can be deployed?

There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🤯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)

Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
2. Kyiv in "3" days. Insane but plausible.
The most vulnerable place of the front is E391/M02 road - there are no towns on the way it should be used as a spine for all the offense.
300km to Kyiv makes it almost impossible to repeat the March trip.
500km front wont be easy.
3. Kharkiv. 3 scales of invasion
Wide arc. Sumy - Kharkiv - Kupiansk. Not for now.
Deep. Vovchansk - Velykyi Burluk - Kupiansk. Useless.
Straight. Urazovo - Kupiansk. Certainly

Kupiansk is a focal point for 🇷🇺 success.
The area is crucial for both sides.
4. Donbas. Main battlefield.
5 directions for now: Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka.
Bakhmut:
Avdiivka:
Novopavlivka (Mariinka):

Whole front is a meat grinder with 150K capacity.
5. Zaporizhzhia. Land to trade.
45500 km2 chunk of a hostile land, that requires a lot of troops to secure the area.
Front line of 160km allows and 3 targets to attack (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka) requires less forces than Donbass.
In a Year after the beginning of the war 🇷🇺 should not be able to sustain anything but infantry.
Dip in the equipment losses should could be enough to maintain enough stuff to replenish current losses with a reserves.
🇷🇺 is somewhere near of equilibrium point in gears.

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Aug 1
July in two pictures Image
Image
Average 32280 IvanZ, lowest-ever APC losses 140, second-lowest tank losses 85.
Declining vehicle losses reflect the changes on the battlefield.

Vehicles are no longer shaping the battlefield - drones are. Image
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Artillery is still used in high numbers, as the majority of cannons are damaged but can eventually be repaired. UAV losses reflect further production scaling, and missiles are used as usual, seems like russia is capped in its production. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jul 4
#Map Velykyi Burluk

The Velykyi Burluk area sits on the watershed between the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers. Rugged terrain and sparse roads define the region, with strategic hilltop routes bypassing small settlements. Image
Russians have captured Milove, a narrow stretch along the border. This secures key ravines and threatens Ambarne, potentially opening a route into the next valley with multiple operational options. Image
The most promising move is uniting the Oskil foothold along the Verkhmia Dvurichkova River. The area isn’t great for vehicles, but drones can control it. That alone could force a Ukrainian "withdrawal".
Read 8 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jul 1
June in two Image
Image
All the categories except UAVs are on decline.
Armor losses on the all time low level, vehicle losses high but 800 less than in April.

Also, significant part of the losses are recoverable.
Russians should be able to accumulate armor for the future operations. Image
Image
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Artillery number decreasing, MLRS remain unchanged despite the decreased number of reported barrages.

UAV broke another record, mostly by Shaheds scaling. Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 24
Pokrovsk Sector Analysis
RU forces hold dominant terrain across the Vovcha basin. The axis toward Filia is collapsing incrementally. However, AFU retains positional control on the elevated northern bank - limiting RU freedom of maneuver in the valley. /1 Image
A key Russian option is to secure the Zirka–Yalta triangle and flood it with drone operators. With stable ammo supply, this zone could influence the entire sector. It is relatively secure from AFU counterattacks, allowing sustained drone operations. /2 Image
The Vovcha’s meandering course compounds AFU movement constraints. With Vesele’s defensive belt compromised, the southern bank becomes indefensible over time. AFU likely to conduct phased withdrawal to preserve force integrity. /3
Read 9 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 14
The war is evolving into a series of endless pockets. Russia tested its drone-oriented strategy in Sudzha and is now scaling it across the entire front in the shadow of the drone "swarm".
1/ Image
Ukraine relies on fortified strongholds. But the joints between these defensive zones create weak noman points. Russia identifies and exploits these seams with systematic uneven pressure.
2/
By applying steady pressure across the entire line, Russia prevents Ukraine from executing effective countermeasures, one way missions insures that the point will be secured. This allows incremental gains on the flanks and creates multiple protrusions - the “claws.”
3/
Read 8 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Apr 6
Pokrovsk is the most data-rich direction, as GSUA publishes detailed reports about enemy activities in the area.
Every evening, GSUA publishes attacks and losses, showing 5-8 casualties per attack, with a noticeable correlation. Image
The ratio of casualties to attacks started to change after March 20, as summertime began to affect the morning and evening reporting of data.
A lot of attacks have been occurring at dusk, that will diverge the data sets. Image
What about the comparison of absolute numbers?

Almost every third attack happens in Pokrovsk,
but only 20% of Ivans are reported from that direction, making it seem cost-effective.
That doesn’t match the visual evidence. Image
Image
Read 7 tweets

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