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Vitaly Profile picture
@M0nstas
Jan 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#TalkingPoint #mobilization
There are rising talks about Belarus involvement into the war.
My expectations ~100K would be added to 🇷🇺 forces.

With all the current forces it should make ~1M army.

The main question where all of them could be deployed.
Where 1M army can be deployed?

There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🤯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)

Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
2. Kyiv in "3" days. Insane but plausible.
The most vulnerable place of the front is E391/M02 road - there are no towns on the way it should be used as a spine for all the offense.
300km to Kyiv makes it almost impossible to repeat the March trip.
500km front wont be easy.
3. Kharkiv. 3 scales of invasion
Wide arc. Sumy - Kharkiv - Kupiansk. Not for now.
Deep. Vovchansk - Velykyi Burluk - Kupiansk. Useless.
Straight. Urazovo - Kupiansk. Certainly

Kupiansk is a focal point for 🇷🇺 success.
The area is crucial for both sides.
4. Donbas. Main battlefield.
5 directions for now: Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka.
Bakhmut:
Avdiivka:
Novopavlivka (Mariinka):

Whole front is a meat grinder with 150K capacity.
5. Zaporizhzhia. Land to trade.
45500 km2 chunk of a hostile land, that requires a lot of troops to secure the area.
Front line of 160km allows and 3 targets to attack (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka) requires less forces than Donbass.
In a Year after the beginning of the war 🇷🇺 should not be able to sustain anything but infantry.
Dip in the equipment losses should could be enough to maintain enough stuff to replenish current losses with a reserves.
🇷🇺 is somewhere near of equilibrium point in gears.

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 15
In a modern positional warfare, seizing ground isn't enough - attackers must capture stable positions they can hold. This thread explains why those points turn tactical gains into lasting control - and why taking them often comes at a very high cost. Image
From the attacker's perspective, a stable position is more than a point on a map - it's a foundation for control. Capture it and you gain decisive lines of movement, observation, and logistics; fail and your gains evaporate.
Stable positions solidify control: they anchor supply routes, protect rear areas, enable forward basing for artillery and drones, and deny the defender easy counterattack corridors. For an occupier, they turn fleeting footholds into lasting presence.
Read 13 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 12
Cheese Defense review
Heavy drone usage has significantly reshaped modern defensive tactics in Ukraine.
For the AFU, adapting means balancing exposure risks with the need for flexibility along one of the world's longest active frontlines.
Instead of rigid continuous lines, the AFU uses "pockets" - fortified strongpoints or "super nodes".
These hubs resist enemy attacks while visible gaps let AFU hold more ground with fewer troops.
Those gaps aren't empty. They’re filled with mines, obstacles & kill zones to slow Russian advances.
Drones amplify this: RuAF UAVs search for weak spots, while AFU FPVs & loitering munitions strike intruders.
Read 10 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 12
Russian forces of Army Group East are attempting to secure tactical gains on the front by shifting their focus westward, away from Novopavlivka, in an effort to cross the Vovcha river and establish a foothold.
With Novopavlivka as an obvious answer. Image
AFU are relying on the high ground west of the river and defensive bubbles centered around major strongholds to contain the offensive. In exchange, Ukrainian defenders appear willing to concede some empty territory, of 13 people per square kilometers.
Russians may be allowed to advance as far as Vyshneve, in the area between the Yanchur and Vovcha rivers, moving along AFU main ditches in a narrow corridor behind the defensive lines.
That will give them up to 300km2 to report but no real benefits to threaten AFU. Image
Read 7 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Aug 29
MoD RF reportedly captured 90km2 (lowest this month) and 6 settlements over a week.
Seredne at Lyman
Kleban-Byk, Nelipivka at Toretsk
Filia, Pershe Travnia at Pokrovsk
and Zaporozhske at Novopavlivka. Image
Majority of the gains happened at Novopavlivka and Lyman directions.
Things aren't that bad despite the information background.
Activities across all the fronts looks next Image
Image
Image
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Northern sector looks next Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Aug 1
July in two pictures Image
Image
Average 32280 IvanZ, lowest-ever APC losses 140, second-lowest tank losses 85.
Declining vehicle losses reflect the changes on the battlefield.

Vehicles are no longer shaping the battlefield - drones are. Image
Image
Image
Image
Artillery is still used in high numbers, as the majority of cannons are damaged but can eventually be repaired. UAV losses reflect further production scaling, and missiles are used as usual, seems like russia is capped in its production. Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jul 4
#Map Velykyi Burluk

The Velykyi Burluk area sits on the watershed between the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers. Rugged terrain and sparse roads define the region, with strategic hilltop routes bypassing small settlements. Image
Russians have captured Milove, a narrow stretch along the border. This secures key ravines and threatens Ambarne, potentially opening a route into the next valley with multiple operational options. Image
The most promising move is uniting the Oskil foothold along the Verkhmia Dvurichkova River. The area isn’t great for vehicles, but drones can control it. That alone could force a Ukrainian "withdrawal".
Read 8 tweets

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