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Vitaly Profile picture
@M0nstas
Jan 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#TalkingPoint #mobilization
There are rising talks about Belarus involvement into the war.
My expectations ~100K would be added to 🇷🇺 forces.

With all the current forces it should make ~1M army.

The main question where all of them could be deployed.
Where 1M army can be deployed?

There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🤯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)

Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
2. Kyiv in "3" days. Insane but plausible.
The most vulnerable place of the front is E391/M02 road - there are no towns on the way it should be used as a spine for all the offense.
300km to Kyiv makes it almost impossible to repeat the March trip.
500km front wont be easy.
3. Kharkiv. 3 scales of invasion
Wide arc. Sumy - Kharkiv - Kupiansk. Not for now.
Deep. Vovchansk - Velykyi Burluk - Kupiansk. Useless.
Straight. Urazovo - Kupiansk. Certainly

Kupiansk is a focal point for 🇷🇺 success.
The area is crucial for both sides.
4. Donbas. Main battlefield.
5 directions for now: Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka.
Bakhmut:
Avdiivka:
Novopavlivka (Mariinka):

Whole front is a meat grinder with 150K capacity.
5. Zaporizhzhia. Land to trade.
45500 km2 chunk of a hostile land, that requires a lot of troops to secure the area.
Front line of 160km allows and 3 targets to attack (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka) requires less forces than Donbass.
In a Year after the beginning of the war 🇷🇺 should not be able to sustain anything but infantry.
Dip in the equipment losses should could be enough to maintain enough stuff to replenish current losses with a reserves.
🇷🇺 is somewhere near of equilibrium point in gears.

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Dec 1
GSUA
Russians made 5976! assaults at 229 settlements - 59 settlements werent mentioned since October, 36 were mentioned for the first time;
extended by 531km2: capturing 468km2, gray out 62km2. Image
Image
One of the most attack Intensive months led to mediocre results in exchange of 31190 ivanZ in infantry friendly conditions. Image
Image
Attack distribution by directions.
Undefined share has significantly increased, as well as Toretsk.
Novopavlivka spilled on Huliaipole.
Kharkiv activities - decreased. Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 23
Race to Zaporizhzhia
Russian Army Group East is slowly advancing through the fields of the southern front, with the defensive nodes of Orikhiv and Huliaipole standing between them and the main battle. The poor road network and mostly flat terrain shape every movement on this axis Image
The Zaporizhzhia front is built around two rivers: the Konka and the Haichur.
Along the Konka lies a chain of settlements forming a dense rural agglomeration. The valley is similar to the Kryvyi Torets corridor, it forms a natural defensive arc with exceptionally strong cover Image
Image
In contrast, the settlements along the Haichur are small and scattered, which makes the Haichur sector the only area truly suitable for a breakthrough. Still, both river lines are surrounded by relatively large settlements, and this is what creates the current defensive grid. Image
Read 13 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 15
Lyman and Beyond

The situation around Lyman is pretty straightforward: secure the flanks, cut the supply routes, and only then take the town. Everything else depends on that. Yarova and Yampil are the keys on the sides, and cutting the routes feeding Lyman. Image
Wile main forces will be pocketing the town small infiltration groups can quietly dig in inside of it and wait for the right moment to strike, while AFU will try to counter that with surveillance and counter measures.
There are several crossings over the Siverskyi Donets, but only two of them cannot be cleanly cut, and even those are under constant surveillance and hit with missiles just to keep them barely functional. Everything west of Drobysheve is basically irrelevant once village is taken
Read 11 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Nov 2
The front has a limit.

You cannot cover everything. Each army can only handle a certain capacity - men, logistics, command, and attention. Once you exceed it, you lose control and start wasting people. 🔽 Image
Stretching the front is not about survival - it is about pressure. You do it when you have spare resources and want to force the enemy to bleed, to react, to stretch too. Otherwise, it is suicide disguised as courage. 🔽
There is a natural shape to every army. Its logistics, structure, and reserves define how wide and deep it can hold. Expanding beyond that breaks the system from the inside. 🔽
Read 9 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 31
Striking October Image
There were 6 massive combined attacks in a month

Russia used 5330 drones, 1109 (~20%) hit the target, some fall as debris damaging almost as many locations. Image
Image
Number of artillery barrages continue to decrease.
FPV reporting was haevily impacted by the weather, but overall trend is the same as a month prior.
Bombs usage set an alltime record and was less impacted by the weather that landed FPVs.
MLRS usage stabilized at a 100 a day. Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 30
#Map Donbas after Pokrovsk

Dont expect big changes after Pokrovsk. Yeah its a hit but not a turning point. Just another town on the long road west. Russians will keep crawling 100-200 meters a day spreading pressure along the 60 km front slipping between defense points. Image
Villages are russain boosters little steps to jump forward and micro assault groups keep poking every corner. Endless Ukrainian defensive lines mean less than they should when the enemy throws bodies everywhere they always find a weak spot.
AFU doesnt have too many cards left to play so the same node defense stays the backbone. Its the only thing that still makes sense. But the way its used now doesnt really work. Settlements should be prepped better not just trenches but kill zones even inside single houses.
Read 14 tweets

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