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Vitaly Profile picture
@M0nstas
Jan 15, 2023 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 5 min read β€’ Read on X
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#TalkingPoint #mobilization
There are rising talks about Belarus involvement into the war.
My expectations ~100K would be added to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces.

With all the current forces it should make ~1M army.

The main question where all of them could be deployed.
Where 1M army can be deployed?

There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🀯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)

Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.
2. Kyiv in "3" days. Insane but plausible.
The most vulnerable place of the front is E391/M02 road - there are no towns on the way it should be used as a spine for all the offense.
300km to Kyiv makes it almost impossible to repeat the March trip.
500km front wont be easy.
3. Kharkiv. 3 scales of invasion
Wide arc. Sumy - Kharkiv - Kupiansk. Not for now.
Deep. Vovchansk - Velykyi Burluk - Kupiansk. Useless.
Straight. Urazovo - Kupiansk. Certainly

Kupiansk is a focal point for πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί success.
The area is crucial for both sides.
4. Donbas. Main battlefield.
5 directions for now: Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Novopavlivka.
Bakhmut:
Avdiivka:
Novopavlivka (Mariinka):

Whole front is a meat grinder with 150K capacity.
5. Zaporizhzhia. Land to trade.
45500 km2 chunk of a hostile land, that requires a lot of troops to secure the area.
Front line of 160km allows and 3 targets to attack (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka) requires less forces than Donbass.
In a Year after the beginning of the war πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί should not be able to sustain anything but infantry.
Dip in the equipment losses should could be enough to maintain enough stuff to replenish current losses with a reserves.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is somewhere near of equilibrium point in gears.

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Dec 9
#4Fun
There are 3 interconnected graphics: the number of repelled attacks and Russian losses @GeneralStaffUA
and territorial changes by @Deepstate_UA
While the raw data is difficult to interpret, applying a 7-day average reveals some patterns. Image
Image
The DS data has some lag and may require adjustments, but it offers valuable context, particularly for interpreting the number of unrepelled attacks. Since September, there have been five distinct spikes in Russian losses.
Notably, the correlation between attack spikes and loss spikes began to diverge after the Russian Kursk operation, shifting the losses wave function by approximately seven days relative to repelled attacks.

Each attack phase lasts roughly three weeks.
Read 6 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
#Thoughts
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί "Lost" fortification section on the Volnovakha front.

There must be at least two lines.
Majority of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί fortifications are build on the hill behind the water stream and the link between those valleys.
For some reason second line is missing on the Vremiivskiy lendge. Image
Without control of Vuhledar there was no chance to build anything along Kashlahach river.
The ledge made the area too deep to justify the construction 25km away from the front.
Incomplete uneven fronts complicates and hight expectations postponed the decision, So non were build. Image
While @Nrg8000 map shows a continuous lines of fortifications.
@AndrewPerpetua use dots in the data representation. Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
#Map #Volnovakha
Reports about πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ activities near Vuhledar opens another window of opportunity at Volnovakha.

The city is extremely important on that flank and for Mariupol liberation, there are no options to avoid the fight before any further movement.

Image
Volnovakha is a watershed, all the rivers goes there so its a natural direction for the offense.
Defense is defined by
a1. main fortifications protected by the streams and lowlands
a2. the forest that protects the city from the North.
a3. 20km deep buffer. Image
In order to break the city πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ should prepare the battlefield for it.
Important task is to cut of H20, but T0512 would be out of reach.
City is surrounded by the villages it would be a hard task to get over it.

Pavlivka - Petrivske - Krasna Poliana road is the starting point. Image
Read 5 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 9, 2023
#Map fortifications and roads
Probably under impression after previous πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ operations πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί decided to concentrate their efforts on the roads, ignoring underdeveloped direction of Azov Upland.

@Nrg8000 map Image
@Nrg8000 Logic of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί fortifications is next
1. Protect hubs (crossroads and storages)
2. Protect the elevation (force the enemy to go always uphill)
3. Protect the Black Sea Lowland access (fast track) ImageImageImage
The "welcome" eastern section requires too much efforts from the attacking side and will rely on maneuver defense.
The major obstacle is the infrastructure. Supply lines should stretch along the dirt roads and the closes exit in Bilmak is fortified. Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 7, 2023
Flooded areas of Kherson, Hola Prystan and Krynky.

Comparing to the topographic map. ImageImageImageImage
Kherson main indicator is the roundabout in Korabel district.
Topography is not precise and show difference in 7-9m
Bohoroducka street is at 11m level

both are similarly flooded.

That show that elevation map isn't accurate for this but still useful.
https://t.co/TIpXbvRyWy twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Hola Prystan is another example of misleading elevation, the dry zone is 2 meters lower than a flooded zone in the center of the town ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
May 25, 2023
Another 20 destroyed artillery units reported.
For some reason no talks about the reported artillery position strikes.

The first such event was reported at Jan 11, the next in Jan 27, next Mar 7, it has never been a consistent event.
Everything has changed in May. ImageImage
Other distinct categories in the reports are
S-300 - were reported several times
MLRS - there were only 3 cases, all in April
EW - 13 were hit in May 19,20 and reported constantly since April.

EW is a Special equipment category and it has spiked in March. Image
Artillery is the only combat component where πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ has some advantage over πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί.
When πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί has a lot of stuff and can execute firewall strategy, πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ can simply outshoot the enemy limiting their capabilities.
In order to overcome that πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί will rely on aviation.

F16 would be handy. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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