Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 15 12 tweets 6 min read
It also seems very poorly timed vis a vis the peace efforts underway in neighbouring Ethiopia, the war & peace effort in which all of these countries were either directly or indirectly involved in to different degrees.
Excepting Botswana which seems a to be an outlier.
It would be far better if the US pursued its strategic objectives in the HoA primarily using soft power rather than military exercises.

How does this exercise relate to #ATMIS

I have a lot of questions and concerns about the implications of a renewed US military posture in HOA.
Europe and China are also heavily invested in this area. The context of this exercise legislatively is a recent U.S. DoD appropriation Act which was passed on 15th December.

With a specific focus on #Somaliland. Here is the relevant part of the text related to that component.
It continues….
To me this legislation looks a lot like signalling a very clear intention by the US to effectively annex Somaliland.

Diplomatically speaking, to do so without the explicit consent of affected nations in the region would be, by definition, destabilising.
Given the history of this area and US military engagement, the most well component of which is the Blackhawk Down debacle in Mogadishu (which now once again has a US military presence) - the clearly stated US intentions here deserve close attention.
“The most well known component of..”

The Black Hawk down fiasco in 1993 (Clinton Presidency) - two years after the TPLF came to power in Ethiopia- was made into a movie in 2002 by Ridley Scott >> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Haw…
The film was released in the aftermath of 9-11 in the lead up to the Godforsaken and illegal war in Iraq justified by lies about the presence of WMDs in Iraq.

The film received extensive support from the DoD in its making, a program which has continued ever since.
Four years after the film the then US proxy TPLF govt invaded Somalia. This three year war was a key moment in the expansion of the US’s Global War on Terror #GWOT which began after 9-11 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_So…
The « gung-ho » nature of the text in the freshly minted Defence Legislation (see above) just passed by Congress, and the speed with which this has become a multi-nation live fire exercise, before the peace in neighbouring Ethiopia has been realised seems reckless.
/ends

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More from @althecat

Jan 14
Near live satellite imagery of Europe and Nth Atlantic.

1. An atmospheric river is dumping lots of rain as this is posted over Ireland, Cornwall, Wales and up the coast to the Hebrides.
2. An atmospheric river coming up from the tropical Atlantic.
3. A Greenland dev. windstorm.
On the RHS there is another atmospheric river coming in over North Africa over Italy and the Balkans.
This is probably the best account to follow to keep track of this @Sausius_wx is I think part of the @Eurowarn1 crew who have been voluntarily doing a great job of following AR (atmospheric river) extreme EU weather 2022-23
Read 9 tweets
Jan 14
Weather warnings across Europe as a series of endless Atmospheric River events continues in the north and mid Atlantic which have caused off the scale temperature anomalies. The red warning over Western Germany here is very close to the @UNFCCC HQ.
So far these storms and warm air incursions haven’t been catastrophic. But there is no guarantee that things will stay that way. Temp, height and pwat anomalies persist to the end of the forecast period - but at the moment it looks v good for skiing if you pick your day.
Given the poor performance of meteoalarm earlier in the year on forecasting extreme weather at night, I’d be keen to see some evidence that they are closely watching this completely unprecedented event.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
France and Germany join the procession of European Dignatories making peace with Ahmed Ali. The coherence of European Policy on Ethiopia is re-forming.

However big questions are now raised about the EU Parliament's super majority Ethiopia resolution on the conflict in late '22.
The now forlorn decision by Brussels politicians & the @eu_eeas ~ to advance the ICHREE (International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia) a commission that has been riven with resignations due to inappropriate appointments did untold damage to EU-Ethiopia relations.
It is good that both the US and EU Nation States have now reckoned with and realised that their policy vis a vis Ethiopia was uninformed from the outbreak of war in 2020.

But it's not feasible for such a reversal in position - on such a horrific conflict - to be unexplained.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 7
#MyBeautifulWorld

Wind, breath of the spirit edition….
The plants ^^ pictured are in Bretagne France but they are plants we have in NZ too Toi-Toi on the right… not sure what kind of palm this is but looks super familiar.

[warning] In some of these the wind noise is quite intense. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Seabirds soaring on the breath of the spirit.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 7
Now there will be a speech from @realDonaldTrump's would be catspaw, Speaker @kevinomccarthy
Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks first. Thanking a bunch of folks.
Will be interesting to see if Kevin McCarthy can make a dignified speech. I presume he has a speech writer.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 7
Complete and utter disgrace.

Kevin McCarthy becoming speaker - after caving to the Freedom/Insurrection Caucus - IF IT HAPPENS - will be an historic American democratic obscenity.

And it won't even deliver a working majority. [fortunately]

#GOPCannotCOUNT
#GOPSpull #Jan6th
Let the vommit fest begin. The world's most dysfunctional democracy, takes yet another giant leap backwards.
This is quite good. This could well get disorderly.
Read 33 tweets

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