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Jan 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
⏰⏰⏰
JARED POLIS IS LIKELY THE FIRST DEMOCRAT TO CARRY THE CITY OF COLORADO SPRINGS:

ESTIMATED TOTALS WITHIN COS PRECINCTS:

POLIS (D): 94,491 (50.6%)
GANAHL (R): 87,774 (47.0%)

Was 50-46 Trump in 2020

#copolitics
The suburban CDP of Cimarron Hills also has likely voted blue for the first time

ESTIMATED TOTALS WITHIN CIMARRON HILLS PRECINCTS:

POLIS (D): 3,135 (49.7%)
GANAHL (R): 2,992 (47.5%)

Was 52-43 Trump in 2020
The resort town of Manitou Springs:

POLIS (D): 1,876 (69.2%)
GANAHL (R): 772 (28.5%)

Was 64-32 Biden in 2020
As @clutchedyhutch says, the Colorado GOP's pronouns are was/were.

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More from @Thorongil16

Thorongil Profile picture
Dec 27, 2022
"Barnstable and Bristol have tons of socially conservative populists"

According to this, the solution to losing Massachusetts by 30 points for being too conservative, is to be "more" conservative.

Good luck - Keating ain't going anywhere
Massachusetts Rs are 0 and 130 or so for winning congressional elections, and it certainly isn't because every white guy with an Irish last name is a secret crypto-populist waiting to be pulled into voting GOP.
Bristol County had a right-wing sheriff, and when voters actually paid attention to his policies, the dude lost, as an incumbent - do you know how hard that is to do?

Barnstable County has all-Democratic government for the first time in decades too so this is clownium
Read 4 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Dec 2, 2022
since I'm bored - like this for a subtweet
you all seem like very nice people and im glad you like my stuff but we should talk more
1. florida safe R
Read 27 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Dec 1, 2022
GEORGIA 🧵

Between 2020 and 2022 the pool of Georgia voters that has actually cast ballots has gotten significantly whiter, especially in south Georgia (rural).

Interestingly, the heavily black suburbs south of ATL in Henry/Clayton/Rockdale have all gotten blacker. Image
20 on left, 22 on right

Weaker D black belt is obvious. Biden won GA because rural AAs didn't shift far from 2016/2018 baselines like in NC.

But for 2022 they did - Warnock's plurality in the first round is in spite of this and is a testament to his strength with whites. ImageImage
Looking to Tuesday - as the early numbers keep coming in at upwards of 30% black, that's extremely good for Warnock.

The blacker an electorate Warnock banks, the easier it gets. And it's not like white voters from Nov are switching just because there's a runoff.
Read 6 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 30, 2022
Map thread here since the precinct results were out and this took me like 5 minutes to make.

Bill Keating as usual crushed it and won by 18, basically matching Biden's numbers here. Jesse Brown was one of the least problematic Rs on the ballot in the Bay State this year.
Bristol County Sheriff race

The notorious right wing sheriff Tom Hodgson narrowly lost to Attleboro Mayor Paul Heroux, as the Dems actually gave a crap and tried to defeat an incumbent. Still, there were a ton of Healey/Hodgson voters and Heroux owes Fall River/New Bedford ftw.
Closer to home

Democrats flipped the sheriff race in Barnstable County. It was legitimately close but Woods Hole/Outer Cape towns past the Orleans rotary have taken this county off the board for Dems.

More blue-collar mid/upper cape towns were pro Whelan though.
Read 5 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022
If the non-in person number is that high - Frisch is absolutely still in this.

It depends on whether the mail is earlier (more D) or later (swing/narrow R).

Either way, buckle up because this seat is likely to be the 218th for either person.
Otero also has some votes up for grabs left - those will break R. But we don't really know how much.

Just want to commend Anna here for her amazing job - this ain't easy!
Either way, this is like covering a football game with how crazy and chaotic this is.

Honestly my duel voting proposal wouldn't be out of place here.
Read 4 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022
Currently, Frisch up by 64 votes.

I pulled the current numbers in each county of CO-03 and calculated the undervote. Using this we projected the *upper bound* of how many remaining cong. votes there are.

If they break at the current margin, Frisch gains a *max* of 393 votes.
Assuming some attrition in Mesa/Pueblo (the two main sources), you get the second case. As an absolute upper bound (Frisch probably will not hit this), he gains 88.

I think there's a solid case that Frisch's net gain conf. interval will keep this in a double-digit vote margin.
In other words - too early to call. Way too early to call. This is not going to be called now.
Read 5 tweets

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