** Allowing exponential growth of disease is like jumping off a roof instead of taking the stairs. **
The danger seems to "sneak up" on ppl, but it shouldn't. This is just how exponents work. They are much MORE POWERFUL than linear patterns.
🧵1/
The danger seems to "sneak up" on ppl, but it shouldn't. This is just how exponents work. They are much MORE POWERFUL than linear patterns.
🧵1/
Speed is distance over time. It has a *linear* relationship to distance.
Gravity measures acceleration, the *increase* of speed. It has an *exponential* relationship to distance.
2/
Gravity measures acceleration, the *increase* of speed. It has an *exponential* relationship to distance.
2/
Every stair you take from the roof to the ground accepts a tiny bit of gravity's acceleration. But then it's controlled right away, before exponential growth lets your speed get too great to control.
When you reach the ground, you've traveled the same (vertical) distance...
3/
When you reach the ground, you've traveled the same (vertical) distance...
3/
as you'd have fallen directly from the roof, but since you stopped exponential growth at every step, it never got out of control and you stayed safe.
You had to intervene early & often to control exponential growth of speed, long before it started to seem big & dangerous.
4/
You had to intervene early & often to control exponential growth of speed, long before it started to seem big & dangerous.
4/
This is just like controlling outbreaks right from the beginning (where case numbers look almost flat) before new cases growth speeds up to unmanageable, system-breaking numbers. H/T @GosiaGasperoPhD
5/
5/
https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1610866407155331073?s=20&t=JIWS7yQIbv-9hnMgmiGRIA
But over and over, leaders and the public keep waiting to address exponential disease growth until it's already going too fast to manage easily.
6/
6/
Even *worse* ppl keep endorsing *linear*-scale solutions over exponential controls:
- Staff more treatment beds in healthcare
- Get more treatment drugs
- Delay more surgeries
These are all 1-to-1 increases. 1 more bed helps 1 more patient at a time, not 2-4-8-16.
7/
- Staff more treatment beds in healthcare
- Get more treatment drugs
- Delay more surgeries
These are all 1-to-1 increases. 1 more bed helps 1 more patient at a time, not 2-4-8-16.
7/
They are important steps to reduce the damage, but they CANNOT fix the problem, ever.
We need exponential controls to address exponential growth. What are those?
Mainly, they are steps that REDUCE TRANSMISSION.
- Clean the air
- Ventilation/Filtration/UV
- Isolation
- N95+
8/
We need exponential controls to address exponential growth. What are those?
Mainly, they are steps that REDUCE TRANSMISSION.
- Clean the air
- Ventilation/Filtration/UV
- Isolation
- N95+
8/
Each transmission blocked means that person does not go on to infect another, then those two don't infect 4 more and so on.
Each blocked transmission is like a single stair-step that stops gravity from making you fall a long way really fast.
9/
Each blocked transmission is like a single stair-step that stops gravity from making you fall a long way really fast.
9/
This isn't special to COVID. It's the reason we teach ppl to wash their hands before cooking and why we isolate measles patients. It was *NEVER* normal to just let disease run wild and plan instead to scale up treatment indefinitely.
10/
10/
Now that we *intuitively* understand exponential growth, just like gravity - falling 1 small step vs several stories - we know why we need to act early, often and most-importantly, *preventatively* to control infectious disease.
11/ end
11/ end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
