Thread by @MylesMcNulty

#AVCT's update today is without doubt the most significant RNS I have ever read, from any company.

Update note in the coming days, but here are some initial thoughts.

Firstly - what many want to hear - the SP at 155p (mkt cap £412m).

In my view, this will not last long. 1/20

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1615254393011544064

There are many stale holders who have been underwater for 18+ months, who will be happy to take some cash out now, in this ongoing cost of living crisis. That is understandable.

There will also be traders exiting, having positioned for this update.

Furthermore, the...

2/20

...wider investment community has not yet heard of, and even more so not appreciated the significance of, today's news at #AVCT.

Finally, I will state with a high degree of confidence that today's RNS opens the floodgates for numerous more updates in the near future.

3/20

- Licensing deals
- Selection of next preCISION prodrugs to launch into pre-clinical development
- update on TMAC platform
- NASDAQ listing

(And many more possibilities)

Target Price? I don't have one yet, but I am of the view that today's news is worth many $ billions.

4/20

#AVCT shareholders will already appreciate this.

So for those reading this who are thinking, "What shameful ramping!" - a very basic explanation.

@avacta's preCISION platform is a DELIVERY technology. It's a physical molecule that is bonded to the drug due to be delivered. 5/20

It is amazingly simple. Quite literally, the enlarged molecule (chemotherapy and preCISION substrate combined) is unable enter healthy cells. It can only do so once the preCISION substrate is 'cleaved' away by FAP - an enzyme found on and around cancer cells.

6/20

#AVACT's first chemotherapy 'prodrug' (i.e. a standard chemo that it modifies with its preCISION substrate), #AVA6000, is a modified form of doxorubicin - one of the most powerful chemotherapies in use that was authorized by the FDA a half-century ago. It's an incredibly...

7/20

...well-known and understood cancer drug.

The aim of preCISION is simply to stop it entering healthy cells, whilst releasing it at (and consequently enabling it to destroy) cancer cells.

8/20

So when Dr Smith says, in today's interview:

"I'm delighted to say doxorubicin is being released in the tumor tissue and at significant levels. Therapeutically relevant levels."

- my own view is that #AVA6000 is now ALREADY more likely than not... 9/20

voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/alast…

...to secure marketing approval.

Activation is occurring quite spectacularly; and safety and tolerability has been improved beyond #AVCT's initial expectations.

Patients who are being / would be treated with dox might now be able to receive >3x more in cumulative doses... 10/20

...(and that could rise substantially); whilst old and infirm patients, who could never be treated with standard dox because of the severe side-effects, could be treated with #AVA6000.

In three years' time - approximately when 6K could hit the market - forecasts for...

11/20

...standard dox suggest a global market size of $1.6bn per annum.

Consider multiple more cycles, and many more patients eligible for dosing with 6K: that $1.6bn market could be expanded by several multiples at least.

And another key point: I have it on good authority...

12/20

...that the manufacturing costs of #AVA6000 over standard dox are only very modestly higher.

So: key question. Why would ANYONE be treated with standard dox, once #AVA6000 came to market?

[Assuming of course that the then owner of 6K didn't price it stupidly.]

13/20

Pick your market size ($3bn-$5bn+?), pick your rev. multiple (5-10x?).

An #AVA6000 that is as targeted as #AVCT has implied today (both dramatically improved safety and tolerability, AND activating in volume in the tumor-microenvironment) - is worth many many $ billions.

14/20

And that is @avacta's first prodrug. The company has highlighted at least 15 other chemotherapies that it believes it can modify with preCISION.

#AVCT's latest guidance is that #AVA6000 will not require a Phase 3. A Pivotal Phase 2 will be sufficient to achieve... 15/20

marketing approval. My understanding is that the majority of other chemos targeted for modification will be in the same boat.

I can imagine that regulators will be very much supportive of preCISION prodrugs, given the years of real-world data for the standard versions. 16/20

The global chemotherapy market is worth $60bn per annum. A great chunk of that could be targeted by #AVCT, and multiplied.

The exclusive license over the platform tech. also gives @avacta an immense, global moat.

A summary of what a working preCISION platform means ⬇️

17/20

That's just chemotherapy. I can say with confidence that the antibody-drug conjugate community will be watching #AVCT closely now.

preCISION prodrugs will be direct competition for ADCs.

And of course, a working preCISION substrate now unlocks @avacta's crown jewel, TMAC. 18/20

Today's SP action has been astounding. I've bought multiple times, as IMO the investment case has been drastically derisked, and only with a 12% increase in the SP.

I've said this a few times before in recent years, but now it rings true more than ever, by a mile:

19/20

Right now, at 155p, #AVCT is the cheapest it's ever been.

I am expecting things to move very quickly from here. Big Pharma will be all over @avacta right now.

An exceedingly happy shareholder who sees an enormous ROI from here in 2023.

20/20