Myles McNulty Profile picture
Former micro-cap equity analyst, former micro-cap-focussed investment manager. Now managing my own book, predominantly trading UK micro-caps. https://t.co/MkxqFCacIR
Uk2day Profile picture ing Profile picture Mogwai Knight Profile picture Edward Roskill Profile picture Brian Bonner Profile picture 9 added to My Authors
12 Oct
The portfolio cornerstone, @avacta #AVCT, now down 6% YTD - having been +154% (290p) in April.

The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.

Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.

1/11
Four potential indicators to look out for in the coming weeks / months that #AVCT's targeted chemotherapy platform is working:

1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.

If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11

clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
...associated with standard doxorubicin, the trial may have been halted already.

On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
Frustrating to see @Afritin_Mining trade underwater, ~5.2p average.

Tin pushing to record highs again, yet #ATM flounders 25% below the recent £13m placing at 6.0p.

Phase 1 Expansion at the Uis Mine in Namibia completes mid next year. This will be transformational for ATM.

1/6
At the current tin price ⬆️, Uis running at nameplate capacity of 1,200 tpa (post ongoing expansion works) would be generating circa £26m EBITDA on circa £36m revs.

The pilot tantalum plant to come online in next few months will provide incremental revs (although at this... 2/6
...stage, unknown), which could grow considerably. Lithium oxide should also come online at Uis Phase 1 - perhaps later next year.

At the current tin price, the expanded Uis Phase 1 (without Ta or Li credits) will have an NPV of $70m to $80m, v. #ATM's current EV of $61m.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
7 Sep
A few more added to the ever-growing @Tirupatiuk holding just now.

The SP is 30% off recent highs, and is still below where it was, pre-acquisition of the Mozambique projects.

Nonsensical. The deal will give #TGR geographical diversification; a broader product range... 1/8
...(the new projects will add small flake graphite to #TGR's offering); a resource base several multiples larger; and, of course, will give @Tirupatiuk much greater production volumes in the medium term.

TGR was already targeting 84 ktpa output in Madagascar; the two new... 2/8
...projects would bring into the fold a potential further 158 ktpa in Mozambique. A 188% increase in total target output for #TGR, over the medium term.

Since the acquisition news, TGR has also brought online its second plant in Madagascar, increasing nameplate capacity... 3/8
Read 8 tweets
7 Jul
Great meeting with @kalhourd today.

@guildesports #GILD is making all the right steps, is expanding incredibly quickly, and winning more trophies than it has had any right to do in its first year of operations.

The Academy could quickly become a key competitive advantage. 1/7
It could create value for #GILD in so many ways. Monthly subscription revs could build quickly - only 17k subscribers would be £1m ARR.

It provides an incredible scouting outlet and feeder system for upcoming talent. Hopefully we’ll see the first academy contracts in the… 2/7
…not too distant. Imagine in a few years’ time #GILD being able to field teams largely or even wholly comprised of Academy-generated talent.

My take on player transfers is that in 2-3 years, Esports transfer values could be 10x the size of what they are today. In 5-7… 3/7
Read 7 tweets
7 Jul
Absolute terror reigns over many #AVCT shareholders this week- simply because @avacta hasn't announced orders for its LFT yet.

Question: would #AVCT be lining up 30m per month capacity overseas, if it thought its existing 5m per month capacity in the UK wouldn't be filled? 1/13
Many seem obsessed with the UK market, thinking that's the be-all and end-all for #AVCT's AffiDX LFT.

My view is that mgmt had turned its back on the UK market several months ago, when it was apparent that there was, at best, complete ineptitude; or, at worst, corruption... 2/13
...at the top of certain UK Gov bodies. I'm referring to both the continued inexplicable support of Innova, and to the stonewalling of @mologic and UK Diagnostics PLC in general.

The FDA's actions against Innova may well have changed #AVCT's stance re: dealing with HMG. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
1 Jul
A must-read article for #AVCT holders ⬇️

University of Leeds (@avacta's academic partner) has been able to bind Affimers to the mutated form of the RAS protein, AKA the Death Star, which is responsible for 20-30% of all cancers.

Huge LT implications for Affimer Therapeutics 1/5
Amy Turner, co-author: "RAS really is the Holy Grail of therapeutic targets. The fact that it has previously been termed 'undruggable' has allowed us to demonstrate the huge impact that our Affimer technology can have when it comes to treating challenging pathologies."

2/5
We have seen in recent months how #AVCT's Affimer Diagnostics platform has outperformed monoclonal antibodies (and other antibody mimetics), in the Affimer-based #COVID19 LFT and ELISA.

Now we have an example of Affimers' superiority (dare I say uniqueness?) in Therapeutics. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
29 Jun
Fabulous to see @guildesports' @taysonFN win the Fortnite Champion Series All-Star Showdown last weekend.

#GILD talent has been a tad subdued on field the past couple of months, but three top 40 finishes (including first place ⬆️) in a major FNCS event is superb.

1/6
As per the Retweet ⬆️, this continued on-field success is critical for the commercial success of @guildesports over the long-term.

Evidently #GILD's set-up - the academy model, the personalised training, the player support - is working wonders.

FNCS victory this weekend...

2/6
...also comes right on the back of #GILD signing its fourth partnership deal in only 8 months - this one with Samsung, which followed Subway in March.

@guildesports has been signing sponsorship deals / partnerships at a rate of approx. one every two months - and those...

3/6
Read 6 tweets
23 Jun
1 month on, and FeV (Europe) has increased by 27%.

#BMN is down several % month-on-month.

Broker EBITDA forecast for 2022 is $80m, based on an average FeV price of $40/kg.

The global V market is incredibly inelastic. There are very few deposits that are nearing... 1/11 Image
...construction ready. It's doubtful that any new production will be able to come online within the next two years - apart from the primary producers, #BMN and $LGO, expanding their operations.

@BushveldMin_Ltd owns two of only four primary production operations worldwide. 2/11
It is incredibly leveraged to the V price, which itself is illiquid and prone to exceptional moves.

With the global economic recovery driving steel output to all-time highs, demand for V (which is primarily used to strengthen steel) is steadily increasing.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.

'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12
Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.

With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.

Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
...of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.

Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.

But much more importantly for the investment case:

3/12
Read 12 tweets
18 Feb
@avacta's AVA6000 approved by MHRA. Superb news. First dosing 'around mid-year'; first data to come within 3-4 months after that.

A summary thread on the significance of AVA6000 - and #AVCT's pre CISION platform as a whole - to both the oncology industry and to AVCT itself. 1/10
In very basic terms, #AVCT's pre CISION chemotherapies are essentially reformulated versions of existing, approved chemotherapies that have been used on cancer patients for many years - decades, even.

The pre CISION tech is simply an attempt to improve the safety profile... 2/10
...of the chemo.

Most therapeutics going through clinical trials look for an improvement of at least 20% over the existing industry-standard drug. A 50% increase in efficacy would usually be considered an astonishing result.

In pre-clinical mouse models for #AVCT's AVA6000 3/10
Read 10 tweets
15 Feb
Quick recap on @avacta #AVCT's #COVID19 LFT.

By the end of next week, the Co intends to have put out a comprehensive TU.

Critically, it will include the sensitivity / specificity of its #COVID19 LFT for the first time. Analytical data collected so far suggests that it'll...1/14
...be the most accurate LFT in the world. However, it is not a given that analytical data will be replicated in the clinical data. Likely, but not definite.

Let's assume it IS replicated. #AVCT will CE Mark its LFT next month, and immediately begin selling it.

2/14
@avacta #AVCT does not have its own manufacturing capacity (yet). It will be contracting manufacturers to make its test.

It's lined up @Abingdon_Health #ABDX, @bbi_solutions and @mologic / GAD, and is working with @OmegaDiagnostic #ODX too (although not publicly announced). 3/14
Read 14 tweets
17 Nov 20
I have had so many calls and messages about the fall in #AVCT @avacta's share price over recent weeks.

Let me be very clear: I am entirely unconcerned by this fall.

As the below Tweet shows, I had a long-term target of ~£20 BEFORE Avacta announced its #COVID19 workstreams. 1/n
The issue is - as is becoming more and more often the case in the world of micro-caps - people are buying companies like #AVCT without having first decided if it is a trade or an investment position.

I cover the importance of this distinction in my profile picture. 2/n
I myself am a trader, professionally, and actually hold very few long term investments. The volatility and lack of quality, accessible research renders AIM an excellent trading ground.

But @avacta #AVCT is an investment. In the next few weeks, it'll be submitting... 3/n
Read 14 tweets
9 Nov 20
An extraordinary day. Firstly, fabulous initial data from Pfizer's vaccine, demonstrating it's 90% effective. An immense scientific breakthrough and a boon for humanity.

From an investment perspective (the raison d'être of this account!): a day of joy and misery, equally! 1/16
Global indices absolutely rocketed - 27/100 FTSE100 Cos ended the session at 10%+. Most sectors were up, whilst precious metals miners and #COVID19-centric stocks got obliterated. The latter group included treatment and testing stocks, and at home/online entertainment/living 2/16
Personally, my PF took an almighty spanking, owing to #AVCT being my largest position by a distance, and also having recently opened a position in #SNG.

A high quality vaccine was always the key risk to #COVID19 plays, but for me, that has always been a medium term risk. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
9 Nov 20
Exciting development for #N4P today - Launch of Nuvec Oncology Treatment Programme.

This potentially opens up a third colossal market, after vaccine delivery x2 (injection and oral).

The really exciting thing about this Co is that its asset, Nuvec, is already developed and..1/4
...largely refined. It now need only prove consistent in-vivo success for its three target applications (oncology injection; vaccine injection; vaccine oral), and it can start out-licensing Nuvec.

And that's the core of the investment proposition: Nuvec is a platform tech. 2/4
It can be licensed out to multiple parties for multiple targets/applications. #N4P will receive upfront and milestone payments as the licensee takes the drug / vaccine (using Nuvec as the delivery platform) through the clinic.

N4P's cost base is exceptionally low; yet... 3/4
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov 20
At home antigen testing for #COVID19.

Detection of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases - to a high degree of accuracy - is key.

99% specificity is a must, and ideally sensitivity of 92-93%+.

There should also be a method of logging the result in an objective manner...1/n
...elsewise individuals with positive results could disregard government instructions and go out for work / socialising regardless.

@avacta #AVCT's Affimers are an antibody mimetic - designed to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

The evidence indicates... 2n
...that Affimer-based lateral flow tests will likely have a higher specificity than mAb-based LFTs, and possibly higher sensitivity too. Moreover, they are rapid to develop, cheaper to manufacture, and are robust (a benefit both for supply chain issues and for shelf-life).

3/n
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep 20
#AVCT interims tomorrow.

Comprehensive updates on all work streams of the Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions will be provided.

Naturally, the content will likely be dominated by the various #COVID19 products under development - and of those, many market participants... 1/n
...(esp. new holders) will only have eyes for the LFT.

I think it’s important to appreciate the number of short term traders - and nervous retail investors - there are in #AVCT at present.

In my view, the near-term SP movement (which I think will be strong, either way)... 2/n
...will be driven by one very simple - but critical - matter: whether #AVCT has been permitted to disclose in its interims the UK Gov’s involvement in the rollout of the LFT.

I think the majority will agree that that involvement is beyond question.

Project #Moonshot... 3/n
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep 20
New nano-cap position taken via placing: #BIOM @BiomePlastics.

A brief intro, with in depth notes to follow in due course:

BIOM has two operating divisions: Bioplastics (biodegradable / compostable plastics) and Stanelco RF Technologies (advanced radio frequency systems).

1/11
Interims out today, along with a placing at 120p for £1.1m gross. Assuming a successful GM, mkt cap at the current SP of 165p will be £6.1m.

Net cash post GM will be ~£1.8m, so enterprise value at 165p will be ~£4.3m.

My investment is solely based on the Bioplastics div..

2/11
..which is a rapidly growing biz operating in a rapidly expanding market that I believe will become an increasingly hot topic going forward.

I'll be posting more about the products and target markets in due course, but here's a good place to start:

3/11

biomebioplastics.com
Read 11 tweets
24 Sep 20
We now know that #AVCT's Affimers are being used in at least 5 diagnostics products for #COVID19:

- LFT (with Cytiva)
- BAMS (with Adeptrix)
- ELISA (in-house)
- Microtox BT (with #SKIN)
- Microtox PD (with SKIN)

Working prototypes for all.

And people still doubt Affimers? 1/9
For BAMS and Microtox BT and PD, #AVCT's work is largely complete. It will simply be providing a regular supply of Affimers to Adeptrix and #SKIN, and enjoy steady royalties (which, as many of us are beginning to realise, could be for much longer than initially anticipated).

2/9
This frees up mgmt's time to focus on the proprietary tests, the (all-important!) LFT and the ELISA (which I believe most are under-estimating the earnings potential of).

Whilst some might point out that none of the 5 products have yet been commercialised, I would argue... 3/9
Read 9 tweets
21 Sep 20
This was a fortunately timed move, but in hindsight, perhaps even more could have been taken off the table...! FTSE approaching -4% on the day.

Then again, as we all inevitably learn the hard way - hindsight is not a strategy.

Regardless, I have a healthy cash pile to...

1/4
...deploy now, with many excellent opportunities about.

#COVID19 testing stocks should of course do very well in the coming few months, with the #AZN / Oxford vaccine delayed and #Moonshot being launched.

My top picks (and the only ones I hold) remain #AVCT and #NCYT.

2/4
In my view, we won't see a market meltdown. The fear factor driven by 'The Great Unknown' is no longer present, as it was in Feb/March.

Of course, there are some sectors I won't be touching, but many industries have gotten to grips with lockdown working measures/lifestyle.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
18 Sep 20
I hear there was a lot of talk on the #AVCT LSE BB last night about me having gone quiet / potentially sold out (seems like the thread has now been taken down by admin).

To clarify: I have certainly not sold. On the contrary, I added a significant amount last week, at ~173p. 1/4
I've been writing an update note on #AVCT, but other investments/research have taken up most of my time this week. It'll come in due course.

In short, I have absolute faith that @avacta will deliver THE game-changing #COVID19 test that will be the cornerstone of #Moonshot.

2/4
#AVCT's Affimers - superior binding proteins to the monoclonal antibodies that other #COVID19 antigen LFT developers are using - will ensure a first-in-class product.

That in itself will ensure there's a global market that will consume everything that AVCT can manufacture.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 20
Major reshuffling of the PF over the past two weeks:

- 1 new trade opened (#WBI)
- 7 major trades closed out

PF now comprises 9 holdings: 2 LT investments, 7 trades.

It wasn't a task I enjoyed, as I see amazing upside in all 7 companies sold, but the rationale was thus:

1/5
1) All exited positions were in good profit - two having returned triple digits in a short period.

2) PF leverage has been substantially reduced, which for me is critical, as US election approaches and an autumn/winter savaged by #COVID19.

3) PF is now more...

2/5
...concentrated (a personal preference).

4) It has freed up cash to enable me to open a new major LT trade: #AVCT.

I've built a 6 figure holding over the last 2 days across the family (separate from our core LT investment in the stock), to be held for the next 2-6 months.

3/5
Read 5 tweets