Myles McNulty Profile picture
Former micro-cap equity analyst, former micro-cap-focussed investment manager. Now managing my own book, predominantly trading UK micro-caps.
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Mar 30, 2023 9 tweets 11 min read
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 This is where there is confusion amongst the #AVCT shareholder base.

Many think that the sell-off has been due to poor comms. That is not the case.

The sell-off has primarily been due to fear, driven by rumour (that of course has not been worded publicly), that @avacta...

@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 @avacta planning another major Diagnostic acquisition, that would result in further equity dilution.

There has been a concern that #AVCT has not been planning its capital allocation sensibly.

Rumour-mongering starting around SD of such a deal completely negated the epic...

Jan 17, 2023 20 tweets 9 min read
#AVCT's update today is without doubt the most significant RNS I have ever read, from any company.

Update note in the coming days, but here are some initial thoughts.

Firstly - what many want to hear - the SP at 155p (mkt cap £412m).

In my view, this will not last long. 1/20 There are many stale holders who have been underwater for 18+ months, who will be happy to take some cash out now, in this ongoing cost of living crisis. That is understandable.

There will also be traders exiting, having positioned for this update.

Furthermore, the...

Nov 18, 2022 18 tweets 9 min read
Trading PF update:

#HARL (5.9p entry)
#PREM (0.45p)
#ALK (120p)
#MKA (13.3p)
#BSFA (8.6p)
#CGO (6.40p)
#BOIL (0.13p)

#MMAG (+86%)
#INCE (flat)
#SPEC (+30%)

Reduced (not exited) HARL over past 24h, best return (% and £-wise) YTD.

[Entries/exits in timeline]

1/18 Volume returning really nicely to the small cap space, which is creating excellent trading conditions.

My average holding period in the Short-term Trading Portfolio is still around 16 sessions / 3 weeks.

Seemingly contrary to many, I consider trade entries based both on..

Sep 6, 2022 8 tweets 6 min read
@AnEarlofWisdom Hi Earl, I can't see any of the posts, as I'm blocked by those accounts (or I've blocked!), but I've been told there's a lot of scaremongering about various things:

1) Delay in trial;
2) Dox not activating much in TME;
3) Low cash balance, and thus possible placing coming.

@AnEarlofWisdom On the contrary, except for Cohorts 1 and 2 taking longer than expected (due to patient withdrawals - nothing whatsoever to do with #AVA6000 itself), #AVCT's progress in 2022 could not be stronger.

The DE to 200mg/m2 was the ultimate target, so that nullifies point 2) ⬆️.

Aug 24, 2022 8 tweets 4 min read
Dare I say a major #AVCT rerate is (at last!) at hand?

Genuinely company-defining news could be landing over the coming weeks.

The question that is shortly to be answered:

Is @avacta's preCISION platform working in man?

If it is, the superheavyweights of Pharma move in.

I have said all I need to, on #AVCT's preCISION platform, here ⬇️:

Since that note, a third cohort has been launched in the AVA6000 trial, with a further considerable dose increase (+33%).

My view is that they stop here. The specificity of the...

Jul 8, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Whilst many scream, "avoid loss-making growth stocks like the plague!" (e.g. #AVCT!)...

@Merck ponders a $40bn T/O of oncology-focussed biotech, @SeagenGlobal.

In 2021, Seagen made a loss of $0.67bn, on revs of $1.57bn.

'22 rev forecasts: ~$1.7bn.

1/6… $SGEN specializes in antibody-drug conjugates ('ADC') - a relatively novel form of targeted cancer treatment.

@avacta's targeted cancer treatment platform, preCISION, has the real potential of generating pro-chemotherapies that are MORE targeted than ADCs, and thus...

Mar 3, 2022 25 tweets 12 min read
Two weeks from entry into @BushveldMin_Ltd, and the SP (and vanadium market!) is really heating up.

Russia accounts for almost 20% of global V production. With sanctions potentially about to bite, panic buying is evidently already occurring.

The #BMN investment case ⬇️

1/25 @BushveldMin_Ltd controls one of the largest and highest grade vanadium resource bases globally, at 549 million tonnes.

It controls:

- 3 major, high-grade deposits, one of which is a working open-pit mine;

- 2 processing plants;

- an electrolyte plant (in construction).

Feb 18, 2022 8 tweets 5 min read
Rare earth elements continue to fly largely under the radar of the investment community.

The reason being that they're used in traction motors of EVs, and not the ever-discussed batteries.

The key REE, Neodymium, is now up 376% since 1 July '20.

Valuation check on #MKA ⬇️

1/8 @MkangoResources is due to complete its bankable feasibility studies for each of its rare earths mine in Malawi (Songwe Hill), and its separation plant in Poland, by the end of next month.

Details have been scarce, but #MKA has indicated the intended output of the...

Feb 16, 2022 25 tweets 10 min read
@PetraDiamondsIR #PDL is now at 96p / £186m and threatening to break out. It's in touching distance of the post-restructuring, intra-day high of 97.5p, with blue skies above.

Interim results are due out next Wednesday.

A basic summary of the investment case ⬇️

1/25 #PDL is a diamond miner, with interests in 4 mines:

3 underground mines in South Africa (all 74% owned), namely: Cullinan, Finsch, and Koffiefontein;

1 open pit mine (75% owned) in Tanzania, named Williamson.

The mines were all acquired from @DeBeers between 2007-11.

Jan 28, 2022 26 tweets 12 min read
The contrasting opinions on @avacta's valuation on FinTwit is fascinating.

Those who think #AVCT is overvalued, just can't seem to get their heads around the possibility that a £250m British biotech could be on the cusp of revolutionizing cancer treatment.

The bull case⬇️

1/25 #AVCT has four platform technologies:

1) Affimer Diagnostics
2) Affimer Therapeutics
3) pre CISION
4) TMAC (a combo of 2+3)

The purpose of this thread is to focus on and explain pre CISION and its potential value. This is the greatest near-term value driver for @avacta.

Jan 17, 2022 14 tweets 7 min read
There are so many ways to arrive at the conclusion that #AVCT's valuation is nonsensical.

Another, beyond the below, is to look at #APTA - owner of a first generation antibody mimetic platform, Aptamers - that recently listed on AIM.

On Friday it surpassed £100m mkt cap. 1/14 For each of its past two FYs, #APTA has generated no more than £1m in revenue.

The Affimer platform is a next generation antibody mimetic platform. It was "engineered to overcome many of the problems associated with aptamers or with antibodies". ⬇️

Jan 14, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel Thanks Malcolm, very kind.

The air of failure surrounding #AVCT this week on Twitter and the bulletin boards - largely from non- and ex-holders - is truly mystifying.

We will have a very good idea of whether the pre CISION platform is working, in the coming few weeks…

@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel …either from dose escalation in AVA6000 P1a; or from candidate selection for AVA3996.

One vital, silver lining of #AVCT’s RNS on Monday:

Alastair Smith has made it very clear that he is a man of integrity. He could have allowed M19 to continue selling MeduFlow in the EU, 2/n
Dec 2, 2021 25 tweets 11 min read
I came to appreciate long ago that AIM is an inefficient and irrational market.

But the share price of @avacta this week takes the biscuit. Following Monday's RNS, I was convinced we'd be at ATHs by now.

My explanation for what I think the market is missing on #AVCT ⬇️

1/25 On Monday, #AVCT announced that it had received FDA approval for its Investigational New Drug ('IND') application, to expand its Phase I clinical trial for AVA6000, into trial sites in the US.

The timing of the submission and the length of review are critical.

Dec 2, 2021 20 tweets 9 min read
Happy with @Tirupatiuk's H1 results. The growth rate really is incredible, despite not being reflected to a great degree in the financials (yet).

When the acquisition of TSG completes (subject to Reserve Bank of India's approval), #TGR takes off.

1/20… Firstly, #TGR's upstream mining operations.

The very small 'proof of concept' Sahamamy plant - 3,000t pa.

It only operated at 2/3 of nameplate capacity in H1 (1,060t produced; 950t sold) owing to various Covid restrictions.

Even so, it achieved a gross margin of 54%.

Oct 12, 2021 11 tweets 5 min read
The portfolio cornerstone, @avacta #AVCT, now down 6% YTD - having been +154% (290p) in April.

The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.

Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.

1/11 Four potential indicators to look out for in the coming weeks / months that #AVCT's targeted chemotherapy platform is working:

1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.

If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11…
Oct 12, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
Frustrating to see @Afritin_Mining trade underwater, ~5.2p average.

Tin pushing to record highs again, yet #ATM flounders 25% below the recent £13m placing at 6.0p.

Phase 1 Expansion at the Uis Mine in Namibia completes mid next year. This will be transformational for ATM.

1/6 At the current tin price ⬆️, Uis running at nameplate capacity of 1,200 tpa (post ongoing expansion works) would be generating circa £26m EBITDA on circa £36m revs.

The pilot tantalum plant to come online in next few months will provide incremental revs (although at this... 2/6
Sep 7, 2021 8 tweets 4 min read
A few more added to the ever-growing @Tirupatiuk holding just now.

The SP is 30% off recent highs, and is still below where it was, pre-acquisition of the Mozambique projects.

Nonsensical. The deal will give #TGR geographical diversification; a broader product range... 1/8 ...(the new projects will add small flake graphite to #TGR's offering); a resource base several multiples larger; and, of course, will give @Tirupatiuk much greater production volumes in the medium term.

TGR was already targeting 84 ktpa output in Madagascar; the two new... 2/8
Jul 7, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read
Great meeting with @kalhourd today.

@guildesports #GILD is making all the right steps, is expanding incredibly quickly, and winning more trophies than it has had any right to do in its first year of operations.

The Academy could quickly become a key competitive advantage. 1/7 It could create value for #GILD in so many ways. Monthly subscription revs could build quickly - only 17k subscribers would be £1m ARR.

It provides an incredible scouting outlet and feeder system for upcoming talent. Hopefully we’ll see the first academy contracts in the… 2/7
Jul 7, 2021 13 tweets 6 min read
Absolute terror reigns over many #AVCT shareholders this week- simply because @avacta hasn't announced orders for its LFT yet.

Question: would #AVCT be lining up 30m per month capacity overseas, if it thought its existing 5m per month capacity in the UK wouldn't be filled? 1/13 Many seem obsessed with the UK market, thinking that's the be-all and end-all for #AVCT's AffiDX LFT.

My view is that mgmt had turned its back on the UK market several months ago, when it was apparent that there was, at best, complete ineptitude; or, at worst, corruption... 2/13
Jul 1, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
A must-read article for #AVCT holders ⬇️

University of Leeds (@avacta's academic partner) has been able to bind Affimers to the mutated form of the RAS protein, AKA the Death Star, which is responsible for 20-30% of all cancers.

Huge LT implications for Affimer Therapeutics 1/5 Amy Turner, co-author: "RAS really is the Holy Grail of therapeutic targets. The fact that it has previously been termed 'undruggable' has allowed us to demonstrate the huge impact that our Affimer technology can have when it comes to treating challenging pathologies."

Jun 29, 2021 6 tweets 4 min read
Fabulous to see @guildesports' @taysonFN win the Fortnite Champion Series All-Star Showdown last weekend.

#GILD talent has been a tad subdued on field the past couple of months, but three top 40 finishes (including first place ⬆️) in a major FNCS event is superb.

1/6 As per the Retweet ⬆️, this continued on-field success is critical for the commercial success of @guildesports over the long-term.

Evidently #GILD's set-up - the academy model, the personalised training, the player support - is working wonders.

FNCS victory this weekend...