Ukraine has suffered two massive casualty events in the past days and our hearts go out to those who are suffering but we have some news that will bring relief! Taken one by one they are small, taken together, we are seeing some glacier changes. 1/n
Kissinger, hated, justifiably, by many, has come out in support of Ukraine’s NATO ambition. This is not small, both in change in attitude and as in general message 2/n
Serbia, has called out to stop Wagner’s recruitment and more importantly called out russias war as unjust and for territorial integrity of Ukraine, last true* allay in Europe is turning
*others are greedy and leader based, not societal 3/n
Bulgaria, is revealed to have support way more mutnions that previously thought. Estimates differ but at times 1/3 of total needs were cover by them. Lets not forget that pro Russian forces are strong there, so this is massive 4/n
Kazakhstan redefined their visa laws, making russians stays limited to 90 days. Those two have been dueling since the beginning and while KZ has serious democracy issue or lacking of it mostly, this new anti-russian sentiment should be applauded 5/
Add Putins sad-drunk Muppet speech today,that took the meaning out of “special presidential announcement” and Ramstein meeting in two days (we need 200 MBT at least #freetheleopard) we are seeing russia loosing! Ukraine must win, so Ukraine WILL win 6/end

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More from @poliitikasse

Oct 17, 2022
Thread on rather AMZING* Ukraine’s success with SAM operations but also MAJOR pitfalls of doing that. Covering mostly missile/drone attacks, fix winged crafts are for another time
*I feel for every one of those lost in those attacks but 82% success rate is amazing compared.. 1/10 Image
with Israeli Iron Domes 90% which is ONLY so because the system CHOOSES targets, its 90% of engaged, NOT 90% of those shot at them! 2/10
While different types of missile attacks have been happening since the early days of the war, Ru had one major issue with them, they didn’t have enough! I stand with my claim(backed by “Karl”) that they had about 2,5k in total. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Sep 22, 2022
Regarding the mobilization news. Few interesting tidbits and one theme to argue. First, the order WILL have an immediate effect. Why? All contracts are frozen and now they will force refusniks. We know there has been plenty of them, it’s a small but not insignificant stopgap. 1/7
Second. All things being perfect (none of them are) it may take a year to make a working division, so they will do smaller units(as small as a company) AND they will start sending them in piecemeal. I’m betting first guys will be at front in 2 weeks. 2/7
This is both good and bad. Bad because more troops, good because those troops will be horrendously unequipped for combat both materially and mentally 3/7
Read 10 tweets
Sep 14, 2022
While Ukraine's win is a must another change I truly wish is the end of ruski mir. Their dirty money out of other countries politics and academia but also their dreadful dangerous diplomatic power out of anywhere
We have 🇺🇦 vs 🇷🇺, 🇦🇲 vs 🇦🇿, 🇹🇯 vs 🇰🇬, 🇬🇪 vs 🇷🇺 and 🇰🇿 🤝🇨🇳 1/n
While we all know about 🇺🇦 vs 🇷🇺, its the only war where the bad guy is clear. In all other conflicts there are centuries of horrible horrible history and USSR made everything in its power to make it worse, Crimea where in ´53? 2/
🇦🇲 vs 🇦🇿 I dont want to take sides and Armenians have suffered greatly but they are occupying 🇦🇿 territory. Historically backed by 🇫🇷 out of necessity they have 🇷🇺as their allay. In current situation, bad bet! Surrender on its way 3/
Read 7 tweets
Sep 5, 2022
Considering Ru finally cutting off NS1 and some tankie ideas, a thread about “EnergyWars” This isn’t about money or market availability, that conflict we WON decades ago, its not even close(more below). This conflict is about hearts and minds and FEAR which we MUST NOT succumb 1/
We were fools to 1) link our energy needs to a dictatorship 2) cheapness of that energy was a mirage anyway, the planet paid the price and now we are hurting but its not even close what’s happening in Russia 2/
Its amazes me how seemingly smart persons yell that sanctions don’t work on Russia(are you getting paid?) How to we know they don’t work? We don’t! Why? Because Russia STOPPED publishing its data. It was Russian data even before hand but now its NO DATA, winning much? 3/
Read 9 tweets

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