Joshua Ramos Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023 10 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The term "hostile takeover" begets images of "raiders" dawning two-toned collared shirt & suspender combos, screaming into phones in a cigar-smoke-clouded mahogany rooms filled with dot matrix printer tear-sheets...

But, $EMR showed that companies too can also "go hostile"🧵
So yesterday, $EMR announced *a proposal* to acquire $NATI for $53.00 a share (~$7.6bn and 32% premium to last close)

$NATI is a $1.7bn electronic T&M business with 70% GMS, 35K customers across diverse end markets

Deal would advance $EMR's global automation focus & strategy
Why go "hostile"?

Well, in short, if as a buyer you're getting stonewalled by management & their Board, you can put the target "in play" by going directly to shareholders

$EMR made many attempts to engage with $NATI in private dating to 5/22 with no constructive engagement
$EMR does a good job cataloging their history of interactions with $NATI

"Hostile" actions are always carefully planned

With 2023 "proxy season" looming, my sense is that "going hostile" was in the cards in the event of no substantive path to a deal following the 11/3 offer
$EMR's PR playbook is textbook, unveiling:

1⃣ Website "maximizingvalueatni.com"
2⃣ PR (w/ email correspondence)
3⃣ Investor presentation & call

All painting a narrative of delay tactics by $NATI voiding shareholders the opportunity to participate in the deal's value creation
Several tactics a buyer can utilize in order to effect a "hostile takeover" include:

1⃣ Proxy contest
(i.e. shareholders "vote by proxy")

2⃣ Tender offer
(i.e. shareholders "vote with their wallets")

3⃣ Open market purchases

$EMR is going with Door #1: Proxy context
How do targets play "defense"? There are 2 buckets:

"Generate More Votes"
1⃣ Dual-class structure (i.e. high & low votes)
2⃣ ESOP plan

"Become Less Attractive"
3⃣ Divest a "crown jewel"
4⃣ Shareholder rights plan (i.e. "poison pill")
5⃣ Golden parachutes

On 1/13 $NATI did #4
TLDR on $NATI's "flip-in" "poison💊"

"If anyone (e.g. a hostile buyer) acquires 10%+ of $NATI's stock, other shareholders can purchase newly issued $NATI stock at a 50% discount"

Intent (via dilution) is to make an accumulation of a control stake economically "self-defeating"
My thoughts...

Not $EMR's 1st rodeo (hostile on $ROK in '17) & they can sign a deal by $NATI's earnings (1/31)

$NATI's "reactive guide pump" (below) & poison💊denote standalone path conviction but the strategic review signals appetite to get to *a* deal beyond fiduciary CYA
Thanks to @NonGaap for the topic suggestion

Follow me at @GlogauGordon & you enjoy some steam of consciousness on #mergersandacquisitions, #SaaS and other topics (perhaps even a Substack someday)

RT, like, spread the word🙏

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More from @JushuaRamo

Apr 24, 2023
"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not f*cking real”

*How to Tell if M&A Interest is Real or Not*

A🧵inspired by Trillium's $10 per share *offer* for $GETY twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Before getting into details, it's important to sense check the buyer's chops

Is someone with a 500K share position (i.e. <0.1% stake) likely to drum up the committed *fire power* for a ~$4.0bn equity purchase price?

The headline typo alone was enough to convince me otherwise Image
Item #1 - *Valuation*

Don't just say *we're buying $GETY for $10 per share in cash* but note:

- Purchase 100% of the common stock
- Implied equity & enterprise values
- Premia (i.e. 1-day, 30-day VWAP, 52-wk high)

*Real* buyers always contextualize their offers for the Board
Read 9 tweets
Jan 31, 2023
The origin story of UKG offers a rare opportunity to unpack various interesting dynamics to me both as an ex-M&A deal practitioner & HR industry participant:

✅ Public company M&A deal dynamics
✅ Public company M&A deal dynamics
#HR & #HCM strategy/trends

Let's dive in!🧵
This🧵will include the following components to help guide how this "all-in-one" HCM was formed & the go-forward path

1⃣ Ultimate Software Refresher
2⃣ Kronos Refresher
3⃣ H&F Combo Mechanics
4⃣ UKG: The Combined Company
5⃣ What a Public UKG cloud look like
6⃣ Summary takeaways
1⃣ Ultimate Software Refresher

🟢 Founded in 1990

🟢 IPO'd in 1998

🟢 "All-in-one" HCM SaaS platform (UltiPro)

🟢 Payroll & HR *fulcrum*

🟢 Enterprise focus (>2.5K EEs)

🟢 ~6K customers (~50m EEs)

🟢 ~$1.5bn rev. & ~6K FTEs

🟢 LBO'd by H&F-led group in '20 (more to come)
Read 26 tweets
Jan 22, 2023
Rumblings on "Private-to-Private" M&A deals

From an M&A practitioner perspective, I can't help but to think there will be a newfound appreciation for the level of complexity involved in consummating these specific types of transactions in today's environment

Let me explain...🧵
Talks of a wave of "VC-backed consolidation" over the next 12-18 months have been pervasive in various Valley circles recently, and manifesting in the form of:

🤝 Buyers using '21 valuations opportunistically as "M&A currency"

🤝 "Roll-ups of last resort" for subscale players
There have been a number of "private-to-private" all-stock (or majority stock) combinations that have been consummated before

Two "success stories" that come to mind are 1) Seamless + Grubhub and 2) Elance + oDesk (now $UPWK)

But these deals have enormous underlying complexity
Read 18 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
M&A is capital allocation tool to help reimagine the strategic priorities in a company's portfolio

But what happens when the pieces of the portfolio "no longer fit"?

"Separation" transactions are complicated & often misunderstood by investors

Here's some good stuff to know🧵
WHY do companies "break-up"?

Some reasons:

☑️Enhance operational focus

☑️Accommodate differing capital needs

☑️Create distinct "identities" for investors

☑️"Align" equity comp & currency for M&A

☑️Mitigate anti-trust concerns

☑️Quell activist pressure to "unlock value"
HOW do companies "break-up"?

Some pervasive mechanisms that companies have used to "unbundle the conglomerate discount" include the following:

1⃣ Divestitures

2⃣ Spin-Offs

3⃣ Split-Offs

4⃣ Carve-Out IPO

5⃣ Spin-Mergers

(NOTE: this isn't exhaustive; see WLRK for reference) Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 13, 2023
M&A always gets buzz in the public markets

But, many investors don't understand what a deal means for them as a shareholder

Also, most can't be bothered reading thousands of pages of underlying documentation (or just get it very wrong)

Here are the SEC filings to dig into🧵
⏳At Announcement ("T+0")

8-K & 425
✅Press Release
✅Investor Presentation
✅Transaction Docs

Takeaways:
🤔Focus on "how it works" (rationale + mechanics)
🤔Ask yourself: "what do I get or give here?"

Example: how the $10bn $ADBE stock part of Figma deal *technically* works ImageImageImage
Takeaway #2: "Read Between the Lines"
🤔Stop and ask "why did they do this?"
🤔Stop and ask "where's the risk?"

Examples (all co-dependent variables)
1⃣Deal Closing (i.e. why close on X date)
2⃣Termination (i.e. who's at risk of not closing)
3⃣Others (i.e. "go shop" in PE deals) ImageImageImage
Read 11 tweets

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