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51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
@MarkCranfield_
Jan 20, 2023 • 23 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
This is why humanity is facing the near-term collapse of civilisation.

James Hansen
V. Ramanathan
Latest climate models
IPCC

They all tell us to expect 2°C in the 2040s.

Thread

1. James Hansen...

"global warming should reach 2°C by 2050"
columbia.edu/~jeh1/Document…
Image
2. V Ramanathan...

"2°C boundary reached by 2045."
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Image
3. Latest climate models...

"median year of 2043"
carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
Image
4. IPCC...

Date range for crossing 2°C threshold starts at 2041
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Image
Now this is crucial to understand.

Land warms ~50% faster than the global average, and accelerating.

Global 2°C means the land average rocketing from 1.8°C to more than 3°C over the next 20 or so years. Image
Working link for James Hansen's paper.
arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474
Collapse over coming years isn't a hypothetical threat, it's a certainty.

Civilisation won't be able to withstand the next 5 or 10 or 15 years.

Collapse won't be easy to survive, which is why people and societies need to prepare.
James Hansen, this time absolutely definitive...

*** Global warming of at least 2°C is now baked into Earth's future. That level of warmth will occur by midcentury. ***
mailchi.mp/caa/november-t…
Image
@ClareTotty hi Clare will you please consider retweeting this thread? It's extremely important that this messaging gets out. We are sitting ducks. Fighting fossil fuels and banks won't make the slightest difference to the rate and magnitude of our destruction. Climate change is caused by the GHGs already in the air. @RogerHallamCS21 @gailbradbrook @ExtinctionR @XRebellionUK
This is an extremely hard pivot to achieve and a test of XR leadership but make no mistake it needs to happen. It must happen. We must protect ourselves and the vulnerable from imminent, unavoidable, catastrophic climate destruction.
I'm not just another armchair punter, see my bio. Risk assessment has been almost absent from the process. I'm telling you what's actually happening, what's going to happen.
James Hansen: 10C based on GHGs already in the air.
arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474
Me, 18 months before Hansen...
Scientists are captured by big oil. Everything is captured. It can't be stopped. It can't even be slowed down.

Climate change is like a giant tsunami. All the energy is already in the system. No more energy is needed. The thermal inertia of oceans will release this energy.

This planet is accelerating to its 10°C equilibrium. "2C is baked in by midcentury" (Hansen). That's 3C+ on land, much more regionally, up from 1.8C now. Civilisation can't withstand the next 15 years, possibly not even the next 5 or 10.

The need to survive this event is overwhelming. Think of your families. Millions of lives in the UK depend on preparation/adaptation.
This paper tells us how it actually works. We're in the lag between cause and effect. The committed warming still to come can't be reduced or delayed.

"CO2 mitigation policies are aimed mainly at stabilization of the CO2 concentration at levels larger than 2005 values and thus cannot decrease the committed warming of 2.4°C (1.4–4.3°C) or delay the time for realizing it."
Page 105 of the IPCC's Technical Summary of the WG1 report.

This is an IPCC working group acknowledging an apocalyptic acceleration in warming over the next 20 years due to reduced particulate air pollution.

0.35/decade is in line with Hansen's 0.36/decade (100% acceleration). Image
"Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s, i.e., within about 15 years."

— James Hansen, 10 Nov 2023

columbia.edu/~jeh1
Image
@sheehanshas

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More from @MarkCranfield_

51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
May 22
James Hansen's Pipeline paper was peer-reviewed and Hansen has just confirmed that no other scientists have challenged his physics. That paper found that the GHGs already in today's atmosphere cause 4 watts per square metre of climate forcing, equivalent to a doubling of CO2 since preindustrial, which means that 10 degrees C of global warming is required by physics for the planet to restore energy equilibrium, ie as much energy radiated as absorbed.
"Criticisms of the Acceleration paper in the media did not address the physics in our three assessments of climate sensitivity. Instead, criticisms were largely ad hoc opinions, even ad hominem attacks."

The three assessments of climate sensitivity were detailed in his Pipeline paper. No one has challenged Hansen's figure of 10C because it can't be challenged.
Hansen didn't "win" though. He largely defused his own bomb by including copious amounts of ridiculous hopium, which extended to cooling the planet back to the Holocene, which is something even the captured consensus scientists know is crazy.

That's why the clique of favoured scientists have largely been able to ignore Hansen and his two recent papers.
Read 4 tweets
51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
Jun 14, 2024
Our fossil fuel civilisation was doomed from the start. No matter how slowly we burned the fuels, the GHGs would have accumulated in the atmosphere and eventually destroyed our civilisation.

People believe so fiercely that there are alternatives to fossil fuels, but there simply aren't. Without the fuels and their incredible power-to-weight ratio and portability, the vast majority of people who have lived since the industrial revolution would never have been born.

We literally owe our lives and our civilisation (itself a staggering achievement) to the fuels which are ultimately destined to destroy everything.

What is coming is the inevitable aftermath of the most biologically successful period for our species. All species are compelled by their biology to be successful and multiply if the opportunity arises. We have a unique type of intelligence but we are still animals who are subject to the requirements of our biology.

Our fossil fuel masters are evil. They should have told the public the truth decades ago so that there was an opportunity to prepare and protect children and the vulnerable.

But we shouldn't confuse their inherent evil with a missed or ongoing chance to avoid catastrophe, because there was never such a chance in reality.

When the IPCC was set up in 1988, the Earth was already committed to extinction level warming for humans. The last deglaciation has shown us how incredibly sensitive this planet is to greenhouse gases.

At today's concentrations, the gases themselves produce 1.2C of direct warming. But it's what those gases do to the planet's amplifying feedbacks that's astounding. The total eventual equilibrium warming (required by physics) after fast and slow feedbacks is 10 degrees Celsius above preindustrial.

It's this extreme sensitivity to GHGs that explains the staggering magnitude of temperature whiplashing into and out of the ice ages in response to "only" ~120ppm CO2e.

Throughout everything we have to remember that toxic air pollution from burning fuels (including wood) has been masking at least 1C of warming. James Hansen wrote recently that these aerosols have been offsetting more than 2C of warming.

This aerosol cooling effect acts just like a sunshade, cooling the Earth, and whilst it has been peotecting our species as a whole while killing and harming many millions of us, it ultimately dooms us because that hidden warming rapidly materialises if fuel-burning reduces.
William Catton, "Overshoot" (1980)

"It will be essential to realize that what is happening to us is a mere sequel to our past achievements." Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
May 9, 2024
Once a person understands just a few earth-shattering realities, it changes everything.

- the amount of GHGs in today's atmosphere means that the Earth is required by the laws of physics to warm by a further 9 degrees C in order to achieve energy equilibrium (as much energy leaving the planet as entering from the Sun)

- air pollution from burning fossil fuels is protecting humanity and all life from at least 1 degree C of global warming. James Hansen recently said that these aerosols have been hiding at least 2.4C of warming.

- most of the eventual equilibrium warming materialises very rapidly on a century timescale

- Loss of the ice sheets and coastal cities is inevitable. James Hansen predicts multi-metre sea level rise within several decades.Image
James Hansen: 10C equilibrium
academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3…
Read 8 tweets
51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
Apr 18, 2024
The general public has absolutely no idea of the extreme horror of the situation we're in. Fossil fuel burning is the only thing keeping humans alive. The smoke particles have been offsetting more than 2 degrees C of global warming.
James Hansen.

At least 2 watts = At least 2.4 degrees Celsius of aerosol cooling. Image
Read 4 tweets
51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
Mar 17, 2024
Scientists are at a loss to understand the magnitude of current ocean warming, but the reason has been known since at least 2006 and James Hansen's 2011 paper goes into great detail.

Climate models mix heat too quickly into the deeper ocean. Rather than fixing this, the warming effect of aerosols (air pollution) is dialled down to compensate.

So there's a double whammy. The warming caused by reduced aerosols due to air pollution abatement laws is underestimated. And the rate of ocean warming due to stratification, which by the way intensifies with warming, is also underestimated.

And there's something else.

According to James Hansen and V. Ramanathan, 60% to 90% of eventual equilibrium warming materialises on a century timescale, with a 75% central estimate based on the IPCC's 3C ECS sensitivity.

However, Hansen has recently found that, based on the latest paleoclimatr studies, a 5C ECS sensitivity is accurate to within a degree either side. This means that the amount of equilibrium warming that can be expected to materialise on a century timescale is more like 90%.
James Hansen 2011 paper
pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha06510a.h…
Image
Read 5 tweets
51K Risk Assessor tells the truth about climate Profile picture
Feb 3, 2024
When James Hansen works out that the eventual warming caused by fast feedbacks in response to today's GHGs is 4.8 degrees C;

that the total eventual warming including 'slow' feedbacks is 10C;

and that a drop in Earth's reflectivity has caused a 50% to 100% increase in the rate of global warming;

this information doesn't tell us to cut emissions, introduce a global carbon tax, start developing reflective geoengineering, stop new oil/gas licences, work more closely with China, degrow economies, cut population, transition to clean energy, more nuclear energy, remove CO2 from the atmosphere, etc etc.

It means none of these things.

What it does mean is that societies, communities and individuals need to prepare for imminent, unavoidable, catastrophic environmental devastation.
I'm sick of hearing about how somehow GHG concentrations will magically go down. They won't go down, not ever, for any reason, in the explosive Anthropocene. You have to understand where we are. We're not on Earth anymore.
And even if, hypothetically, all the methane, ground ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide since preindustrial magically disappeared, the CO2 alone, which is atmospheric granite that's not going anywhere, will heat the planet to 6 degrees C just on its own. But all GHG concentrations will keep growing for centuries. Because this is an exploding planet.
Read 5 tweets

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