Talha Ahmad Profile picture
Jan 20, 2023 19 tweets 4 min read Read on X
India-Israel Joint attack on Pakistan Nuclear Facility [Thread]
(Based on True events)
India has outmatched Pakistan in every other department from the conventional military to the economy but this is one of the few where Indian couldn't beat Pakistan. -1/17 Image
The Jets in the #MissionMajnu trailer reminded me of this most significant but unpopular event of the 1980s. India conducted nuclear tests in 1974 which jeopardized security of the region because of imbalance of power. President Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto authorized the project -2/17
establishing the foundations of Pakistan's most critical, crucial and consequential program. Meanwhile, In 1980 Israel adopted begin Doctrine under which it will not allow any enemy country to obtain nuclear weapons. It focused on carrying out preventive strikes against -3
nuclear facilities under a counter-proliferation policy. At that time Pakistan's overwhelming support for the Palestinian cause and to Arab world during the Arab-Israel placed Pakistan in the category of enemies of Israel. Under the begin Doctrine IDF carried out air raids -4
on the Iraqi Nuclear facility in Osiraq, Iraq in 1981. Israel planned to carry out similar strikes on Pakistan's nuclear facility located in Kahuta, Punjab, Pakistan. Kahuta was close to the Indian border and the lack of air defence put Pakistan in a bad security situation -5
based on a 1979 report by then PAF Air Chief Anwar Shamim and President Zia ul Haq advised PAF to strategies a counter-retaliatory strike on India’s nuclear research facilities in Trombay. For that PAF needed new aircraft and selected F-16, due to USSR-USA conflict -6
President Zia was able to get the deal done for new F-16 Fighter Jets. Pakistan received 2x F-16A and 4x F-16 B in early 1983. Meanwhile on the other side of the theatre, In Feb 1983 Indian officials travelled to Israel to discuss strategy and plan to neutralise the threat of -7
Pakistan going nuclear. On 25 February 1983, Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi accused Pakistan of covertly attempting to make nuclear weapons. After months-long consultation Plan was finally designed under which -8
6x IsAF F-16s and a few F-15s will be shifted from Haifa over the southern Arabian Sea into Jamnagar, Gujrat, Punjab, India.
The IsAF F-16 strike and F-15 CAP aircraft would then move from Jamnagar into Udhampur where previously IsAF C-17s would waiting -9 Image
with a cargo of deep penetration and detonation weapons. With the Himalayas, aircraft would enter Pakistan air space in combat formations to deceive the radars. In March 1984, Indian PM Indira Gandhi signed off the Israeli-led operation targeting Pakistan's nuclear facility -10
But before the mission, Pakistani Intel picked up the plan. President Zia authorized counter-retaliatory strikes on Indian Bhabha Nuclear Plant, Trombay and the Israeli nuclear plant at Negev. The message was also sent to world capitals including Tel Aviv and Dehli. -11
that Pakistan will retaliate and the result would be devastating. State Department also received credible intel reports containing satellite images then State Department sent a msg to both not to carry out air raids against the nuclear facility, which also left India with -12
little space for the operation. But one of the messages to Dehli was sent through the Former head of PAEC and Nuclear Physicist Munir Ahmad Khan. He is also cited as the "Father of Pakistan's nuclear program". Diplomat Abdul Sattar was briefed and later delivered the message -13
to Munir Ahmad Khan. During a conference on nuclear safety in Austria, Munir Ahmad Khan invited Indian physicist Raja Ramanna for a dinner at the Imperial Hotel where MA delivered the message about a possible retaliatory nuclear strike at Trombay. Raja Ramana delivered the -14
message directly to the Indian Prime Minister's Office. This was one of the reasons why President Zia used to respect and admire Munir Ahmad Khan despite his political tilt towards Bhutto/PPP. After the death of President Zia, Dehli and Tel Aviv again tried to pull this off -15
then PM Benazir Bhutto passed the same orders of retaliatory strikes to COAS Aslam Baig. (Will write separately on that). The change in power corridors did not introduce any change in the nuclear policy eventually Pakistan carried out nuclear tests on the 28th of May 1988.-16
References
1. “Deception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons” by Adrian Levy
2. Compulsions of Power by Ashfaq Hussain
3. Kahuta by Saghir Iqbal
4. The war that never was by Ravi Rikhye
5. Sattar, A., Munir Ahmad Khan Memorial Reference, 2017
Here are a few additions to the objections.
1. Bharat Karnad has mentioned about C-17 either he has confused it with the C-130 or just randomly wrote about the jet.
2. The plot is evolving but the dates mentioned also have references and fit in with the timeline of events.
3. As for the F-16 and Mirage, the PAF chief is quoted as
“The Indian aircraft can reach the facility in three minutes whereas the PAF would take eight minutes,” said the air chief, “[This will] allow the Indians to attack the facility and return before the PAF can defend it.”

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Oct 1
Iranian retaliation
[Intial analysis]
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Hezbollah's response to assassination of Fuad Shukr mirrors Iranian true promise operation, where the goal was demonstration of offensive capabilities rather than carrying out a high impact strike. In the normal circumstances, this could have
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The appointment of Sinwar as head of political bureau, after the assassination of Haniyeh, might be surprising for many, but it is a strategic decision based on the security and political realities of the region and beyond. -1/n
When Hamas planned Al-Aqsa Flood (Oct 7), it knew it was a strategic manoeuvre having serious long-term implications, and there would be no coming back afterwards. One implication was the end of rapprochement with West and Gulf via the political bureau.
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Jul 2
For defeatists & pacifists (Engineer Co) it's not the lack of understanding about changing realities but optimism for Status Quo.
How I am reading the strategy is quite obvious; this current Israeli structure with this ontological paradox can't exist for more than 5 years. -1/n
However, it's difficult to elaborate in layman's terms how psychological, tactical, political and socio-economic factors are adding to the strategic chessboard and the ongoing war for the last half a year is enough to predict the end game, keeping the current factors as
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constant. Psychological, military, & political barriers were breached, and the myth of Israeli invincibility was shattered. The social fabric got shattered, and Most importantly the security dilemma introduced means it will always remain in a state of war even in future.
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Apr 20
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Both at the regional and Global level. Strategic depth has collapsed, and challenges from traditional to non-traditional security are eating up the foundations. Hopes are dwindling and unprecedented paralysis across state functionaries is staggering.
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Apr 15
Summary Iran's attack on Israel [Thread]
Earlier, I wrote about the scope of upcoming possible retaliation and the options Iran has in terms of its arsenal. Now let's analyze the overall retaliation (operation) and strategic and tactical gains if any. -1/n
- Firstly, considering the distance between the two; an element of surprise would always be rare in wartime/hostile regional environments. So it's important to keep in mind that Iran carried out an attack when Israel was on full alert. -2/n
- Secondly, Iran was not up against Israel's air defence. It was a multilayer air defence involving the US Navy, RAF, and Jordanian air defence, though the attack was multi-front it was primarily by Iran.
-3/n Image
Read 11 tweets

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