Large parts of 🇩🇪 public, many govs and international experts & media are outraged at @Bundeskanzler decision to neither send #Leopard2 himself nor allow partners to do so #Ramstein. While responsibility lies with 🇩🇪 gov primarily, in this moment we should not forget that…(1/4)
This responsibility is shared with 🚦 MPs in the Bundestag. Germany is a parliamentary democracy & @GrueneBundestag @fdpbt have ways to change course — either by legislating with CDU/CSU or (more likely) by threatening to do so, forcing the SPD. Ofc this involves high... (2/4)
Risks for the survival of the coalition. But at stake are the lives of thousands of 🇺🇦 soldiers, civilians & children — as well as 🇩🇪 international reputation & collaboration in Europe. Blaming @Bundeskanzler is justified, but Greens & Liberals hold the keys 🔑 to change. (3/4)
We should not let them get away with their anger, when caught in our own anger about #scholz. We have to ask & encourage them to be ready to put the coalition & their jobs on the line for much greater goods @MAStrackZi @MarcusFaber @ABaerbock @ToniHofreiter @BriHasselmann (4/4).

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine

Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @chriswratil

Jan 23
Sorry, but as a scholar of public opinion I am really sick of the „Scholz just follows public opinion“ argument on #Leopard2 🇺🇦. 1) Public opinion on war is highly fragile 2) Scholz shaped it, 3) Hence, responding to small majorities is self-referential, not democratic 🧵 (1/13)
Public opinion can be influenced by a lot of things from information, arguments, events to elite action. We know that the less people have thought about an issue, the more complex & technical, the harder it is to obtain first-hand insight, the more changeable is opinion (2/13).
On such issues people rely on cues/endorsements from media or elites. Guess what! Opinions on war abroad are a prime example for such issues. Most people have no own experience with it, many feel incompetent to assess, high complexity, information comes from elites/media (3/13).
Read 14 tweets
Jun 21, 2022
🇩🇪 will support EU candidate status for 🇺🇦 in upcoming #EUCO summit but will demand EU structural reforms to make 🇪🇺 ready! So far, so good. But let’s look at what #scholz German gov see as key points of this reform. Longish 🧵/ rant! Take a deep breath…

sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundes…
According to @SZ the first proposal from the chancellor’s office is the abolishment of vetos — particularly in foreign policy. Why is foreign policy mentioned? Because in most areas vetos actually don’t exist anymore. EU takes about 85-90% of legislative decisions by majority…
Most of the remaining areas are „sensitive“. States have decided to not move to majority voting bc they fear vital national interests could be compromised. Key areas beyond foreign policy are indirect taxation and justice & home affairs. Why should states feel differently now?…
Read 17 tweets
Jun 10, 2022
Unterstützen die Deutschen ein sofortiges Embargo gegen 🇷🇺 Energie? Und was beeinflusst die Meinung zum Embargo?
 
@b_castanho @Jwaeckerle und ich führten dazu Anfang Mai eine repräsentative Umfrage mit 3251 🇩🇪 Befragten durch.

Unsere Hauptergebnisse in kurzem🧵👇. Hold tight!
1) Mehrheit 🇩🇪 ist für Embargo: Auf die Frage, ob man ein sofortiges vollständiges Embargo für 🇷🇺 Energie (Gas, Kohle und Öl) befürwortet, sagen 52% „definitiv ja“ oder „eher ja“ während weniger als 40% dagegen sind. Werte sind im Einklang mit anderen Umfragen der letzten Monate.
2) Am höchsten ist die Unterstützung bei den Wähler*innen der Grünen mit fast 80%.

Überraschenderweise ist die Zustimmung unter den 🚦-Partnern am geringsten bei der FDP: rund 45%, fast gleichauf mit Die Linke.

Am geringsten ist die Unterstützung unter AfD-Wähler*innen.
Read 12 tweets
May 24, 2022
It increasingly looks like 🇩🇪 Bundestag vote for #heavyweapons to 🇺🇦 has achieved nothing — perhaps even the opposite of its intended objective: gov line of hesitation & caution appears unchanged, but pathways to amending this line have narrowed down due to vote. Short 🧵 (1/8).
Many observers (incl. I) assumed that gov felt hindered by a lack of parliamentary mandate to step up weapons support or at least, would change course when receiving mandate. But voices inside & outside 🚦 coalition doubt there has been a change 👇 (2/8).

I won’t speculate about the reasons for inertia — just assume that significant forces in gov are not willing to do as much as possible & demanded by many MPs. So what can be done now? Ironically, Bundestag vote for #heavyweapons legitimizes & consolidates hesitant gov line (3/8).
Read 8 tweets
Apr 19, 2022
German Greens are really in a precarious position now. There is no party in 🇩🇪 parliament who got more right on 🇷🇺— they had warned about 🇷🇺 (esp. NS1/2) for years & decades. Usually, that’s the penalty kick when you expose the mistakes of the others & collect electoral support…
…& in this case, it wouldn’t be cheap exploitation of other’s failures, it would just be showcasing your competence — they had a better, more accurate analysis of the situation. A great opportunity! But so far Greens leadership has decided against bc it would mean exposing SPD…
Their current & favorite coalition partner. Demanding investigations into 🇷🇺 connection & criticizing SPD leaders publicly could end the coalition. SPD could try to portray Greens as unreliable & reckless. Huge risks for party & short-term stability of gov. But the dangers of…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 17, 2022
This Easter we will hear everyone wishing peace for 🇺🇦. And while "peace" is the word that for us all symbolizes hope & a better future, something we don't have to explain, understand instantly, there are different forms of peace. So which peace are you talking of?🧵 1/8
1) The Ukrainian peace. This peace has 🇷🇺 withdraw from / being forced out of all Ukrainian territory (perhaps save some concession, ie. Crimea), 🇺🇦 democracy survive & being guarantueed by own & others' military capabilities. For some it also means NATO and/or EU membership. 2/8
2) The continued "peace". This is a continuation of what Westerners called "peace" since 2014. Parts of Ukraine are occupied, annexed & russified by Russian troops (eg. incl. new territories), intensity of conflict is lower. 🇺🇦 will be unable to become part of NATO or EU. 3/8
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(