Thread by @canemacro

1/6
Weekly 2022-23 #bearmarket update. Wait until you see #6!
If you're new, see this OP:

https://twitter.com/canemacro/status/1554458227458412547

2/ Perspective. 2022 trend matches 1969 trend.

3/ Could we be in a recovery like 1962? Possibly. But the #economic picture was so much different, better, and improving back then. I doubt this will track 1962. Of the possible remaining historical bear analogs, 1 is up, 5 are down.

4/ Here is a synchronized look at the major historical #bearmarkets and ranges:

5/ Now the good stuff: the historical bear markets that are most like 2022-23. The composite correlation is 88%! It also illustrates how high the risk is currently based on the lifecycle of a #bearmarket.

6/6 The most remarkable chart! Ranges are based on data that is 20+ years old. If you had said in 2002 that a pandemic would trigger a #bearmarket and the S&P 500 would squeeze through this tiny gap at exactly this time, *nobody* would have believed you. #WeAreLivingInTheMatrix