Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #recessions
Most recents (6)
🧵The #fiscalconservativemyths around good government being dependent on #balancedbudgets and ridiculous comparisons of government budgets to household budgets is about to arise yet again. Let's check these myths out.
Do economists believe that the budget should be balanced each fiscal year? No, a budget should be balanced only on average; it can be in a deficit during a recession and offset by surpluses when the economy is doing well.
A balanced budget refers to total budget expenditure being equal to the total budget receipts. Adam Smith and other classical economists advocated the concept of balanced budget. They claimed a balanced budget is the best since it has a neutral effect on the economy.
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
1/11 Every Bear Market Since 1950
#stocks $SPY #bearmarket
In this thread:
Shocks, Cycles, and Structural Bear Markets
What is the 2022 bear market like?
Is this bear market over or will it get worse?
#stocks $SPY #bearmarket
In this thread:
Shocks, Cycles, and Structural Bear Markets
What is the 2022 bear market like?
Is this bear market over or will it get worse?
2/ Shock bear markets are caused by unpredictable events that are not directly related to #economic circumstances. They are very short, lasting less than 90 days, and very deep, historically below -30%. They recover very quickly.
3/ Cyclical bear markets are "normal" bear markets. Some are associated with cyclical #recessions. They are shallow, with bottoms between -20% and -30%. They are short-lived, ranging from two to eight months.
A significant #bond #buying opportunity is approaching.
As bond yields surge, history and #techncial analysis suggest that we should look at bonds for both #capital appreciation and a #risk hedge.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
As bond yields surge, history and #techncial analysis suggest that we should look at bonds for both #capital appreciation and a #risk hedge.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
In Dec 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about 6% yields.
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5%
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5%
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
The surge in 2-year #bond #yields is unprecedented. Historically, such a surge in short-term yields coincides with either #recessions or #market events. With yields now 4-std deviations above its 52-week moving average, such has denoted peaks previously.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
#Coronavirus recovery scenarios – one decent, none great
via @OxfordEconomics
oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
via @OxfordEconomics
oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publ…
Our @OxfordEconomics baseline anticipates a gradual and uneven relaxation of social distancing measures through the summer such that #GDP and consumer spending are unlikely to return to their Q4 2019 level until mid-2021 – roughly 15-18 months after the initial #COVID19 shock.
Lets talk about the #FED's #Outlook on #US & #Global #Growth & where it sees #MonetaryPolicy #Regulation & #Supervision going given the #Zero / #EffectiveLowerBound...
Yesterday, 6th February 2020, the #FederalReserve (FED) Vice Chair for #Supervision addressed the #Money Marketeers of #NewYorkUniversity in #NewYork. His address, in the form of a speech, was coined "The #Economic Outlook, #MonetaryPolicy, and the Demand for #Reserves"...
Considering that the #FED is one of the most influential #CentralBanks in the world, it pays to get as much information from them as possible, especially when it comes to #monetarypolicy conduct and the #Global impacts thereof...
